Member Info for JeffMills

Yeah, some cash clearly flowed into AFC today, but let’s be real — our 300MW+ pre-FID deal is on a completely different level.

AFC announced a JDA — early-stage R&D work with revenue maybe coming in 2027 if milestones are hit. No orders, no hardware, no deployment. It’s a funded development plan with a nameless partner and a long road ahead.

ITM, on the other hand, has been named preferred supplier for a fully scoped, large-scale project — 300MW+, backed by government funding, and already past the concept stage. That’s not a research agreement — that’s a near-term commercial deal pending a final investment decision.

So yeah, AFC had the headlines. But ITM has the substance — and if that FID lands, it’s not a 40% spike… it’s a full-on re-rate.

I get the feeling a certain someone in here would prefer ITM to clog up the factory with low-value, quick-turnaround sales — just to show “activity” on paper. But that’s short-sighted.

Dennis isn’t building a business for next quarter’s headlines — he’s positioning ITM for multi-hundred MW, government-backed, strategically important projects. That takes time, coordination, and proper funding frameworks — especially when you’re talking about national infrastructure-scale electrolyser deployments.

We’re not selling widgets. We’re building critical energy systems. Going after high-impact, long-term projects isn’t a lack of progress — it’s called scaling properly. And when one of those deals lands, the value dwarfs any short-term “quick wins." That’s the direction ITM’s heading — and rightly so. I couldn't care less about 2025's revenue if i'm honest.

Yes, a 13% drop isn’t small — but context matters. This wasn’t about ITM underperforming, it was about liquidity shifting. If that pressure unwinds, and we hold or reclaim key levels early tomorrow, this could flip just as quickly.

It’s not a collapse — it’s a shakeout. And often, shakeouts come right before momentum returns.

Ook at the timing — AFC’s RNS dropped at 12:05. ITM was sat steady at 88p, holding that level for about an hour. By 12:10, 87p cracked, and we slipped to 86p. Within 20 minutes we were down nearly 8%.

Now ask yourself — what changed fundamentally at ITM in those 20 minutes? Nothing. What did happen is AFC exploded 40% on their news. So what you likely had was day-traders chasing that momentum, pulling capital out of ITM to jump on the AFC train. That sudden outflow creates weakness, shorts jump in to lean on it, and then retail panic follows — classic chain reaction.

What does this mean for tomorrow? Honestly, it could be a gift. If that pressure eases overnight and the wider market digests the move for what it was — a short-term rotation, not a fundamental shift — then we could see a rebound. The structure’s still there, and nothing in ITM’s story has changed. In fact, any buying strength tomorrow could spook short-term shorts who leaned in too heavy on a false trigger. Watch early volume closely.

Just thinking out loud here too bilbo— but today’s drop in ITM looked like it lined up almost perfectly with AFC’s RNS. Wouldn’t be surprising if some day-traders jumped ship to chase momentum over there. That kind of sudden shift can set off a chain reaction: shorters pile in to take advantage of the weakness, a few holders get spooked, volume builds on the sell side, and it snowballs.

It doesn’t necessarily reflect anything wrong with ITM — just classic trader psychology and short-term noise. The fundamentals haven’t changed. If anything, this kind of overreaction only highlights how sensitive the market still is to sentiment shifts — not substance.

Recent RNSs have done the heavy lifting — raised revenue guidance, confirmed delivery, strong cash position, and a potential 300MW+ deal. That alone is enough to shift sentiment and bring in both retail and institutional buyers without anyone needing to cross a TR-1 threshold.

Spain has finally awarded €524 million in grants for green hydrogen — something the market’s been waiting on for over a year. These five large-scale projects total 425 MW of electrolyser capacity and mark a huge step forward for hydrogen in Europe.

With names like EDP, REPSOL, and Petronor involved, these are serious builds — and ITM Power already has history with some of these players. Nothing confirmed yet, but with 425 MW on the table, there's every chance ITM could end up supplying a portion of this capacity, especially given its recent 300 MW Asia-Pacific contract and turnaround in delivery capability.

I think a lot of people jumped in chasing the rise today and sold out at a loss, hence the day traders desperate for this to drop tomorrow, while others like me — as a long-term holder — bought in on the actual fundamentals. That 300MW Asia-Pacific contract (even pre-FID) is government-backed and signals serious credibility. It wasn’t random — it was ITM getting chosen for one of the largest-scale green hydrogen projects out there. That speaks louder than short-term revenue or the timing of FID. Too many are missing the bigger picture — this is about positioning in a market that's just beginning to scale.

You don’t get a move from 30s to 90s without volatility...

Bit wild today — hit 94p this morning, which was massive, then gave it all back and closed around 68p. On the face of it, looks rough, but honestly that kind of move is healthy. It flushed out weak hands, cleared a ton of stops, and probably shook out some late chasers. Still up huge from where it was a few days ago, and now there’s a proper base forming. If it holds 67–68p, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it build again tomorrow or friday — just needed to reset after that rise spicy said was over at 41p lol.

Could be that a load of shorts under 0.5% are getting squeezed right now. The stuff we don’t see on the official short register, because it only shows shorts over 0.5%. That means there could be a whole pile of sub-0.5% positions that were betting on this staying down — and now it’s ripping 20% a day, they’re panicking, forced to close, and that’s helping to spike it even more.

We know about the big ones like Helikon (2.9%) and Qube (0.7%), yeah, they’re still in, but think about how many funds could be holding like 0.3% or 0.4% shorts each — dozens of them. Could easily be 5–10% of the float tied up in small shorts we can’t see. When it moves this fast, that pressure builds up hard. Especially if they’ve been short since like 40p or below — they’re getting absolutely torched now.

Touched €1 on Tradegate a min ago—most bullish pre-LSE open I’ve seen yet. Surely we’re not in for another 20%+ day… or are we?

Let’s just take this in — ITM is out here locking in a 300MW+ contract (pre-FID, yes, but still huge), and they’re doing it without Linde. Who’d have thought that a year or two ago?

And look, I’ve got nothing against Ceres, but let’s be real — they’re miles behind in terms of readiness. They don’t manufacture, they license. Their tech’s solid oxide fuel cells, still in the R&D-to-scale-up stage. Revenue depends on partners like Bosch actually delivering.

Completely agree — averaging up in strength is a solid strategy when the setup supports it, and this one clearly does. Higher volume, strong close near the high, and a sharp recovery from the midday dip all point to institutional interest building, not retail noise.

ITM’s revenue guidance is up 30%, cash burn is under control, and they’re sitting on a 300MW+ deal with serious backing. If momentum holds and a confirmed order lands, £1.50+ is well within reach — and yeah, the RR comparison isn’t far off. Similar setup: battered stock, real turnaround, market re-rating.

Someone tried to pin this rise on talk of tariffs being reversed — yet no other stock in the sector is moving like this. Let’s be honest, that’s grasping. A potential 300MW+ deal with even a 50% chance is huge — market knows it, price reflects it. You don’t get this kind of momentum off vague policy chatter.

What we thinking for tomorrow, 90s?

In my opinion, Helikon haven’t closed during this strong rally because they know full well what it could trigger — a breakout run with real volume behind it. They’re likely holding off, waiting for a day or two of stagnation or weakness to quietly unwind without fuelling the fire. But the longer ITM holds strength — or better yet, lands a confirmed large-scale order — the harder it becomes for them to sit still. One solid RNS, and they won’t get the chance to exit cleanly. I am now up 205% on my last buy, of course my average is higher but v happy indeed.

Strong rise today — exactly what many of us LTHs expected. When you get selected for a 300MW+ project in Asia (very likely South Korea, based on earlier context i posted), it’s not a question of if the market reacts — it’s how hard.

As for the tired “only 4% of FIDs happen” argument — that’s a lazy stat, and here’s why:

It lumps together every speculative hydrogen dream, from fully funded EU infrastructure to one-man PowerPoints in rural Africa.

BloombergNEF data shows when projects are backed by government or local funding, FID rates shoot up to 40–60%. That’s a huge difference — and that’s exactly the category ITM is now playing in.

This is the first year major public funding has actually started flowing — Hydrogen Bank (EU), UK HAR2, South Korea’s H2 roadmap — so of course historical FID rates were low. There was no money yet.

This isn’t the same market as 2021. This is the start of serious infrastructure deployment — and ITM, with Linde, RWE, and now a 300MW+ Asia-Pac deal, is finally delivering into it.

Today’s move is just recognition of that. If even one or two of these big-ticket projects move from “announced” to “booked,” the re-rating won’t just continue — it’ll accelerate.

Certainly a long-term holder, I don't have a sell out price atm but heres my guidance:

Year | MW Output (Est.) | Share Price (est.)

--------|--------------------------|-------------------------------

2026 | ~180 MW | £3.00

2027 | ~300 MW | £4.00

2028 | ~600 MW | £7+

Key is the FIDS and more of these will flip as gov funding flows in (Germany, UK HAR2, EU Hydrogen Bank, etc.). We're also seeing traction on Neptune stacks and better delivery discipline.

Hahaha rent free.

You’ve clearly had a long day tuna. Get yourself to bed, mate. Maybe things will look better in the morning… especially that imaginary 67k.