Member Info for JDwag

Walkabout Resources didn’t even know they had their ML Recommended until someone checked it out on the TG Cadastre (then they issued an RNS). Our application on the Cadastre will now be update and it will now go to the Cabinet to be approved. Interestingly, one of the constituent criteria for the mining Commission for the approval of an SML is to have proof of funding in place........ JD

Beyond all of the Fretting and Bed Wetting, I think sometimes folks just have to sit back and think what the alternative (in any reasonable timeframe) to MCPP there is in Tanzania. There isn’t any!! I have gone back over and over my research the last week after the ‘tender’ announcement and I still can’t find anything in terms of IPP or Government NDC owned that could be built within Kibo’s timescales. As Magnet’s post has shown, beyond the demented decision making and delays at the TG MCPP is still the most compelling shovel ready project (by years) they have to get large base load on to the grid. The SML has taken two years, yes, but now so close to being issued. The PPA is delayed, yes, but it will come also. For all the negativity you could still be a position here where SML goes to Cabinet for final approval, MCIPP ML is submitted and SEPCO buys Equity all within a working week of each other. Keep the faith folks it will be worth it IMHO. JD

Yes, great job Magnet, good to see research posting still actually goes on here. JD

YES! JD

Well my top up of 182k at 9:09 this morning was rather well timed. JD

Just scanning through the FT (sad but true) and found this. Hopefully sums us up well? “This is the real warning on story stocks; the time to buy is either when very few people have heard the story, or when everyone has heard it and every-one hates it. If you are buying when stories about cannabis stocks are every-where in the financial press, you are most likely part of the "wall of money" which smarter players aim to exploit. Story-stock investing is a genuine skill, at least as intellectually demanding as short selling and much more lucrative, if you can get it right. As with short selling, if you master it you can make money. But if you don't you are going to find out, and quickly.” JD

Agree, Mike. The Chinese and their ultra long strategic view on their investments make them perfect partners here. Only they can possibly manage the sheer erratic investment conditions to which we now find ourselves in. JD

And our own PPP hopes at MCPP: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-09/14/c_137466165.htm I don’t think it should be underestimated just how much this will scare away Western Investors who will simply not lend to a country with no independent third organisation arbitration. It’s very relevant for the current Coal / Gasification tender as no western funds will touch this until it all unfolds. Which will take years. So god only knows what other ‘tenderers’ will propose for funding? Enter the Chinese to mop the floor on every major infrastructure transaction....... And on that basis if SEPCO go ahead with the equity investment consider it to be a very bullish sign that the Chinese State are happy with the in ‘country risk’. JD

Personally, still very hopeful of a nice SEPCO surprise late next week / early the week after. MCIPP ML Application going in in next week or so. And we are bound to get an MCPP update next week, you might not like the answer over the tendering 'process' but we are still best place to win it. Debt free and no need for cash so still sitting here pretty relaxed. JD

I have researched that project before. It’s a typical Musk (not a fan) vanity project, no one has any idea of the total costs or lifecycle implications of it.

I deal with 'Uninterruptable Power Supplies' (UPS) systems in hospitals, it is a glorified battery back-up system for when power goes down and before the diesel generators kick in, it is to guard against that vital few seconds in between so operations don’t into darkness, etc. The costs of these things are off the scale, I’m not fibbing when I say the costs (when all lifecycle implications are taken into account) are many, many multiples of the diesel generation back up, which is in itself multiples of the off the grid costs. Know one would go near it if it wasn't for critical for life safety issues.

They are years or commercial viability, namely, because the battery degrades so damn quickly and then they need to be kept in very cool conditions which then needs air cooling systems at huge costs!!

They are years off from being in a place where large scale grids can use them.

JD

Yes, it can’t be baseload as you can’t guarantee the output (obviously it isn’t always windy) unless you use some kind of storage mechanism, such as pumping water back up to hydro plants to be used at peak times, which isn’t great in a country where hydro is unreliable at the best of time and battery storage isn’t there yet in terms of costs and lifecycle so that is pretty useless for this kind of Mw.

Yes, there are some great prices per Kw coming out of the world on wind and solar, but back to the ages old problem, you can’t store electricity (a battery is the storage of chemical energy).

JD

Bespooked, the only issue I would have with the ‘comparison’ argument is that the tenders are for different sizes and different maximum sizes (in one location). You couldn’t make a Kw for Kw comparison could you?

To me, it looks as though they want the larger generation to be base load coal (600mw) and a smaller proportion to be wind and solar.

JD

So, we are on the brink of a Chinese owned conglomerate investing in our company (who’s ultimate parent company is the China grid corporation, the first or second largest company on earth by annual revenue generation) and you want the CEO to go? Inspire. And replaced with whom? I hear Daisy Duck is out of work currently. JD

Talking to a friend about that yesterday, their safety record is shocking. JD

I imagine it will be tendered out to find a contractor to construct the inter connector, yes, Capo99. Big contract, may be a JV? I’ll be my you a £5er that it’s to be up and running for 2020.... JD

You need to be near a sub station or HV power lines to evacuate the power anyway. Can’t just build a power plant then remember you then need to build $200m worth of infrastructure around it. That’s why MCPP works the world bank funded transmission lines and substation is outside the front door. JD

LagunaB, That is the only thing that makes sense. You know who is going to win it but just go through the Dog and Pony show of tendering ‘compliance’ to show you went through ‘best practice’. JD

Far from, Shrubby, pertinent questions. I’m at an utter loss as to what any other company other than Kibo can produce of any substance. BTW having a feasibility study is one thing, having an EPC Contractor, Equity and Loan providers do due diligence on it is another. And then agree a price and financial model. All in it’s taken Kibo close to 6 years to get here through Pre-feasbility stages all the way here. The post yesterday also mentions ‘MoU’ only we have gotten that far. It’s a weird set of events. JD

Agree with Sonic, this can’t just be looked at through the MCPP PPA, SML and F.C. EPC Contractor prism, of course, that is part of it but it’s also about the other projects as EPC Contractor, getting first refusal on the Equity and Loans of the respective SPVs for each project and the money you’ll make on your initial Shareholding. It’s a financial win for them all ends up. But beyond all of that it is a Chinese geopolitical power play in the region by the Chinese State for resources and political influence. Kibo would just be a small part of the overall multi trillion dollar market they are determined to take and keep from the West. I’m still 50/50 if we get the SEPCO buy in next week as I can see why it could be delayed and I can also see (as above) why it would go through on time. JD

I think that's fair Mike. It's not a very attractive place for western investors at the moment, Tanzania. I hope in the next week we have both the SEPCO inward investment and the Botswana ML Application. Would put us in a great place going forward. JD