Member Info for JDwag

Just catching up after a long day on the road. Wish I hadn’t bothered. It’s slit your wrists time here!! Btw the world bank has just given them a loan of $455m for the power grid? JD

In fact it just reinforces my view that no other party is within a country mile of Kibo in delivering a 300mw CTPP.

JD

Yeah, stumbled across is late yesterday, it's much better (and positive) than the presentation lol.

JD

Alright Wimbledon, it's good to see you back btw.

No, not yet, been running around the UK and Ireland these last few weeks with work and just not got round to it mate. I will I promise.

JD

http://kibo.energy/wp-content/uploads/KIBO-Fact-Sheet-Final-200918-Ver-3.1.pdf

The updated ‘fact sheets’ on Kibo’s Website are pretty decent actually for a current glimpse of where we are (sorry if this has been posted before).

JD

As is their strategy, they’ll do both, mike. Conversely, the delay may end up costing SEPCO more per share than it originally would have, for example if they have the SML for MCPP then ML for MCIPPin the bag before the PPA comes in then on the PPA they would be in a very strong position to screw a very good price out of SEPCO. Whilst delays and uncertainty can cause the SP to drop now, it won’t be forever as long as things progress. JD

‘Clarification’ is a word that could cover a lot of scenarios of course. But, even in a worst case ‘scenario’ and we have to go to tender I’m still struggling to see how anyone else can pull 300mw of Coal power out of thin air in this time line other than Kibo (who would struggle to hit 2020 themselves)? I do hope the Captain is correct is his summation below and this is about proving good governance in order to get this procurement through. JD

Of course, you have to take anything the TG says with a pinch of salt however the 2020 figure of 5,000 MW bodes very well for us and the 600mw superior coal plant tenders. Hopefully this is linked to the 2018-2020 figure in the tender: https://allafrica.com/stories/201810010672.html JD

That’s what I keep coming back to. No one is within 2/3 years of us in implementing a 150mw / 300mw Coal Power Plant. Other than to tick a bureaucratic box i no earthly idea what they intend to achieve. If you think building a 300mw Plant is hard enough try it on a smaller scale at 150mw and all your scale efficiencies are lost and it’s much more expensive. As for 2020 Date? It would take EDL or Intra Energy (Tancoal) till about 2024/5 to get their first power to market and they both have operationalvoal mines in country. Maybe, because I have no idea what the transmission / evacuation of power is like in their areas it may take further years to get transmission lines there. That is why MCPP works as it is being built over the top of the EAPP transmission lines. It’s why I’m still relatively relaxed here because I see no reasonable alternative to MCPP in terms of coal power or PPP power plants for that matter. It’s a long term play this make no mistake but I still think it will come good. Beyond the fact that the in country government is a shit show beyond words. JD

Obviously want no risk whatsoever, which is fine, means when they do buy in it will be at a higher price due to the risk off premium. The issue is obviously the TG and what obstacles they chose to throw up next and how long the tender process takes after the initial pre qualification process. As for the SP today? Being AIM god alone only knows. JD

Yes, we are in great shape. There are others further in some aspects such as an operational Mine (EDL and Tancoal) but they are miles off us in terms of PP development and funding. Not to mention Tancoal is fighting an Administration Injunction. In terms of PPP Coal PP’s I can only think of EDL and Tancoal? Anyone else offer anyone else? http://www.intraenergycorp.com.au/irm/content/energy-projects.aspx?RID=250 And even according to Intra Energy’s website (Tancoal’s parent company) they are at ‘initial site investigations’ stage. So years off us! JD

What odds they buy in on or around the 30th Sept? 50-50% as I see it. JD

It’s the same as the NDC. The literally have feasbility studies on coal power plants that go back to the 80s that they tout as ‘in progress’ and are in fact decades out of date and utterly useless. It’s PPP or nothing. If you want it in any kind of sane timeframe. JD

Tanesco building an $800m specalist Plant all by their lonesome? I’m 38 now, I’ll say I’ll have a 5 in front of my age by the time we see that come to fruition (but probably never). Anyway what does it matter when they are releasing specific coal power plant tenders? They obviously want coal to play a part in their power future. Although god alone only knows what timeframe is their future!! JD

Spot on, i can barely bring myself to bother here most days. Today being one of them, it has became a nut house.

JD

Minemate, Yes, that’s always been the scope here, those invested believe that LC will pull this off and today is just another tick in the box, as you say this could be anywhere between 3-30p, although, interestingly with the addition of MCIPP and BIPP it’s possibly not as binary an investment as it once was. JD

Spot on Sonic, it’s a marathon this and not a sprint. SEPCO confirming but in this week / early next would do wonders here. JD

I think the ‘rumour’ has to be addressed, yes. Like Walkabout Resource, they-issued their ‘speeding ticket’ RNS when the SP spiked on their ‘application recommended’ on the Cadastre. For orderly market reasons I think Kibo will have to do the same. The bigger thing for me though is Tanzania does not issue these things in a vacuum, o think the SML and PPA are linked by a lot of similar criteria, such as funding and the ‘free carry’ requirements, if this is now at this advanced stage then the PPA must surely be very advanced also? JD

That’s it. There are ones on there non of us can really understand, the Copper one has us all scratching our heads?!? The main event is the SML. JD

http://portal.madini.go.tz/map/ On the Cadastre go to the ‘key’ on the left hand side of the page. Click ‘off’ all boxes and then click ‘on’ the ‘applications’ box. Then in the box in the top right hand corner of the page under ‘serch’ Type ‘Mbeya Coal Limited’ that is the SML Sub Company Kibo applies for the Licence under a d the SML will come up and so will location just under Lake Rukwa. JD