Member Info for JDwag

Probably referring to the Ngaka Power Plant (Intra Energy, Tancoal and Sinohydro). Way behind us in terms of feasibility studies and permitting. Just bad journalism I would think. JD

I’m not a fan of EUA, used to be, but the way they throw shares about like confetti and the hundreds of millions of warrants / options they have given out to employees of one ilk or another would make me run a mile. Juxtapose that with Kibo, zero liabilities, warrants and options. It’s just a nice environment to put your cash into once you’ve done your research on a company’s projects. JD

We don’t know lots of things to be fair. We still don’t even know if our existing MoU is still’ ‘live’ or ‘dead’. Still think we are in for an (eventual) nice surprise on MCPP. But time is always the arbitrator on such matters. JD

Disagree! The speed at which they retracted and then reissued the tender shows a new ‘haste’ IMHO. Of course, I will only be proved correct in hindsight. JD

They want coal as well, why else would you bother with a Coal Power Tender? JD

https://mobile.twitter.com/kiboenergy?lang=en JD

100% IMHO, SGB. When looking at the dates of when MCIPP and BIPP came ‘on stream’ it ties in with the SDA announcement, when allowing for how long all this stuff takes to negiotate and agree. When this all comes good (and I have utter faith that it will) we should all be very well compensated for our attrition here. JD

Our time will come. JD

Coal is cheap as dirt (sometime good quality dirt is more expensive actually) therefore you need a plan to use it and to monetise it. And to do this to any great extent you have to move humongous amounts of it.

Kibo, Schumba, Minergy all have plans to move / burn it in the millions of tonnes per year. EDL have a plan to sell what? 8,000 tonnes per month or something like that? The average 100 car coal train in the U.S carries more than that in one load and are probably making next to nothing per load on the profit margins. ML and a Resource don’t mean anything, you need a plan to use it, and use it properly, not dig out a few tonnes here and there and sell to local farmers.

JD

Another good piece of research, Andrew.

But hey, what does a guy with Billions of tonnes of coal, across multiple jurisdictions and multiple thermal coal plants attached to them under management know? Nothing, that what! He’s probably spent years (on top of years of the previous owners) building these things up, all for nothing as well, he should have asked some on the board instead of wasting his time all these years.

JD

Good post, Magnet.

Yes, taking out the Thermal Power portion of this, what is an SML on a 121m tonne prospect and a ML on a 303m tonne prospect worth? More than £12m MCAP I would have thought…….But maybe I am wrong.

JD

Would like to see the Hydrological Report (if one exists) on how long the reservoir will take to fill in this. Most of the large Hydropower Dams in this part of Africa are of the Nile. But the Rufiji River is filling this and is completely with the confines of the country. Considering the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will take anything from 5-15 years to fill you would have to expect (at least) the same here (before drought). Sad to see but just looks another African Post Colonial President wasting their countries hard earned and has white elephant stamped all over it. JD

They have the chance under the existing agreement (3 July RNS) to take up to 25% as it is, they can only take a possible further 4.9% after that before they hit the ‘30% mandatory takeover’ threshold under LSE Rules and then MUST make a takeover offer, they aren’t going to do that as they don’t want / need a small cap energy company to run.

Their 25% offers them ultimate control here of all construction and full ownership of all debt / equity of every project (or parts thereof as they so choose). Remember, the equity stake (even if the SP rockets) in Kibo Energy PLC would be by far the smallest return to SEPCO3. All the riches lie in the individual SPV’s (in Equity and Debt) and the EPC Construction Contract value terms, which are multi-billion figures in terms of Opex / Capex. That is before we add in future projects (which will be 100% certain IMHO) and an the Chines State’s global expansion agenda.

JD

‘I think Tanzania needs to develop Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in energy, transport and infrastructure. These are important in reducing debts, they bring efficacy and competent management, so Tanzania needs to encourage this’

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/World-Bank-stance-on-loan-release-to-Tanzania/1840340-4858282-r1mhb1/index.html

As we though, anyway, WB / AFDB will fund the backbone of the electrical grid and that kind of thing and expect IPP’s to pick up the individual projects.

JD

I think what this also illustrates is despite what some on this board imply ‘why would SEPCO3 by at ‘X’ when the market SP is ‘Y’’ is because SEPCO3 are not just buying shares in KIBO ENERGY PLC. They are in effect tying up the whole shutting match in their favour. That is what it is important for LC to get a ‘correct’ price out of them. What they are in effect ‘purchasing’ is something beyond our PIs ability to actually value. It won’t in anyway be current SP related!

JD

Yes, SEPCO3 (to date GE have not stated they are) are to invest in KIBO ENERGY PLC, i.e. the parent group that we are all invested in. Beyond that each project will comprise an SPV in that each of MCPP, MCIPP and BIPP will each be a Limited standalone company with their own Shareholders (Equity Holding) and will also have debt / loans attached to each standalone company.

They key here (if / when it happens) is that SEPCO3 will own a part of the parent group outright and will also have exclusivity on each project (i.e. to construct it as EPC Contractor). However, the lovely side benefit for SEPCO3 is by having that kind of shareholding with KIBO ENERGY PLC they will essentially have first refusal in both the Equity / Debt provisions for each project. Which means SEPCO3 (the Chinese State) will in all ways up have first refusal on the construction, equity and debt provisions on any of KIBO ENERGY PLC’s projects.

A nice spot of work for SEPCO3 for only a pittance of cash (in the grand scheme of what we are talking about here) they will financially benefit every which way……

JD

As ludicrous as I used to think that sounded a few months ago, the odds of MCIPP now ‘overtaking’ MCPP is probably at 50/50 at this rate, I guess the one of the predetermine factors in that will be the speed at which the ML is issued?

Within 30 days would take us to approx. 10/12/18(ish).

JD

It will be interesting to see the speed at which the ML Application will be dealt with as the ‘proposal’ that LC and KIBO presented to the Bots Government outlined in the RNS of 9/11/18 must have also gone over in great detail what the Power Plant proposal was also, hopefully a quick conclusion will show that they are serious about this.

JD

Anyone have any research on how long another coal mining application has taken to get approved from application in Bots?

JD

28 x bigger. JD