Member Info for JDwag

the one thing that strikes you with the NCCL RNS is just how drawn out the process is in this part of the world generally to get something this large, complicated and expensive to the stage of actually agreeing anything is. Their RNS just seems to be as open ended a process as Tanzania...... JD

Xp, Thanks for that. Nice to see what the locals are thinking in such matters, we appreciated the insight. Please do keep it coming. Reinforces my thinking that before too long Energy requirements in Tanzania will reach a political escape velocity so to speak and these projects will happen quickly at that point. Patience and averaging down is required at this point, however. JD

I’m utterly convinced of the intrinsic value here and it will ‘out’ one day. Not to say it isn’t tough currently and I don’t dismiss that there could be further tough times ahead in the conceivable near future. But as happened in 2014 and it’s path higher the same can (I believe will) happen here again. JD

Going back to the Twitter feed on Tuesday 30/10 it was rather explicit that Q5. There was no plans ‘soon’ to return to the market for funds. That pretty explicit. Like Pixie, I’m expecting a Chinese curve ball before the end of November, there just seems to no real ‘impending doom’ from LC in the RNSs. There has to be bigger plays afoot, no? And if there is you have to think the MCIPP and BIPP are actually much further advanced than we may think..... JD

It’s also a 100% Tanesco owner and operates venture I.e not a IPP. That may or may not have some bearing on it, I have no idea. Stiegler’s Gorge, if it goes ahead, would need funding, I can’t see the World Bank (who have run away from coal let alone in a UNESCO world heritage site) and it seems way too large for the ADB and the limited funds they have, if you are going to self fund it, it would consume 40% of the annual federal budget (so forget that route) so private equity / lenders and an IPP (same as MCPP) can’t see many funders lining up to go wellie deep into Tanzania currently on a ‘spec’ project. If, big if, they can get the design and environmental certification sorted, and funding, couple of years for design and permitting, need to sort out the nearby grid capacity, 2 years to clear and prep the site, 4/6 years to construct and anywhere from 5-10 years to fill the reservoir, that’s of the rains don’t fail in that part of the world, which they will as their current Hydro plants never operate at full capacity. I’ll say 15 years before it’s operating at 2,100Mw if all goes well. Which it won’t. And there is our strength, it’s a waiting game for Kibo and the Chinese, ultimately, eventually, the GoT will play ball IMHO. JD

Agree, Dave. They need to pull their finger well and truly out in order to get to 5,000Mw in the relative near future. They will also have to pick projects that are the furtherst advanced in order to meet their targets, roll on MCPP……

Have a great weekend each and every one.

JD

Didn’t have any money to top up at -30%. Feekking raging.

JD

That must be Louis brother, Leon speaking...... JD

Yup. That is key, Magnet. SEPCO3 will tell us the truth behind Kibo’s value. Expect the Chinese to drive a hard bargain however, they always have and the buy in price here will be no different. I wouldn't worry about GE, GE are a supply partner, it's SEPCO3 will the value will come from.

JD

Careful, Dave. You'll get set upon with that kind of attitude on here.

JD

Steal it and do what with it? Look at it in the ground? They have no money to do anything ffs!

JD

Bcl,

The TG is (and has been since JPM’s Election) a Government going through a complete root and branch programme of reform regarding it’s Mining and Energy Policy. JPM has taken a wrecking ball to crack that nut and we are, unfortunately and inadvertently in the firing line as a result of this. The country obviously lacks the necessary skills to do this reform and at this speed, and clearly wholesale mistakes and delays are being made.

You only have to look at the Mining Code change to show what this means in programme terms, no licences where issued for two years and it has taken two whole years for Kibo’s SML Licence to go from application to ‘recommended’ by the Mining Commission after numerous reapplying processes. We are now, unfortunately going through the Energy component of that reform, there is and will be further delays while they get a grip of themselves and the programme. But, if you take the Mining Commission as a guide, given time, they have finally produced a working process.

As you rightly say, we have no idea if this means the current tender process is alive or dead and we haven’t even had confirmation if or old PPA MoU is alive or dead, this will in all likeness take a few months to clear up. However, beyond the current ‘carnage’ there is, I believe, real value here to be attained if we can all wait out the current situation, no debt or nasty outstanding liability surprises, hundreds of millions of tonnes of coal under management and three (varying stage) projects at advanced stages. £10m MCAP for that seems low to me.

I realise all investments are personal and not all can wait this out like I can, but for those that can wait for anyone of those three projects (let alone two or all three) to come to fruition, then there is surely a large bounty at the end of this?

FWIW I think LC is playing this correctly, Tanzania specific, jumping up and down and publically castigating the GoT would do him or us no good. He’s got the project to this stage, he now just has to wait play the game and wait till the eventually award of a PPA IMHO.

GLA and all IMHO of course, don’t listen to me, I’m years out lol.

JD

Sonic, those aren't Kibo's words!!

JD

So what do you think that means, Magnet? Not enough tenderers? It can’t be monies, that isn’t part of Part 1 of this Tender, that comes later.

JD

This now has the same MCAP that we bought the whole of BOTS for an now completely rights of Tanzania……..No monies at present, but will start to get some together over the next few weeks and prepare JD’s Kitchen Sink Hammer Throw……

JD

LOL. It's laughing at moments like this makes you proud to be British.

JD

I have had tenders in this country that have been pulled for ‘procedural’ reasons of course, however, it does add to the never ending shitshow narrative of Tanzania at the moment.

Our SP is a mess at the moment of course, however, long term I will ride this out as I fail to see what other alternative to MCPP there is? Conversely, it probably makes the alternatives to MCPP even less as I doubt investors are lining up to spend USD$1B a time on power projects in Tanzania anytime soon, and no one, will be advancing their Feasibility Studies at 8 figure costs, either! The Tanzanian’s have ensured they are now down to probably only the Chinese that will be bothered to play this game. Good for us long term, bizarrely.

JD

Sorry, meant to add that a MCIPP and BIPP update is well overdue. The last update we had on it was when we had expected to submit a ‘mining licence’ application which is now a month plus overdue. JD

Is that not what he did with the last Q&A update last Tuesday? Beyond this any ‘vanity’ RNS would be utterly pointless IMHO. It’s not nice to watch the SP at this point, however, LC should drown it out IMHO and just charge on with MCIPP & MCPP and advance MCPP (be in tender or current PPA) at the same time. Beyond this anything else is just noise. Of course, what I want beyond anything is SEPCO on board before end of Nov. And I’ll still stick with my 6p. JD

...you come to learn with investing in AIM (and I learned it the hard way once upon a time) is that the SP and the stock movements around it are a) more often than not, not what they appear and b) the share price can literally be out by multiples in a very short space of time.

Was RPT really worth 3.5p a share in August 2017 or is it now worth 53p a share (15 bagger)? Was BMN really worth 1.4p in October 2016 or is it now worth 31p a share (22 bagger)?

I’m incredibly sanguine about the SP fluctuations because I’ve done my research and I know what I am invested in and also I can happily let the investment rest here and wait out the current malaise.

JD