Member Info for JDwag

Yes, the same World Bank based in Washington DC and largely funded by the US (now trying to expand their coal projects). No hypocrisy there at all....... JD

From memory does the TG not have a stake in Songa? JD

They’ll be no works bank funding in MCPP. That was clear a while I go. Western countries with the usual ‘do as I say, not do as I do’. JD

Pauly, that for me is key, why should African countries be forced down a route of renewables only in order to satisfy the cravings (or currents fads) of the west? Also, very modern Coal Power Plants are by no means the devil they are cast as. Countries of course should have a sensible mix of power, all eggs in one basket is a recipe for future disaster. JD

https://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/africa-wants-the-same-opportunity-as-the-west-had-to-develop-1.728836 Mentions MCPP. JD

I agree, silence says to me nothing has changed, negiotions are close to be formalised and are ongoing. ‘Fraught’ is probably a good word. To be fair, they will take what they take, Kibo’s future is at stake and so is my (our) shareholding. No point cocking it up now in the persuit of haste. JD

I doubt anyone on here would argue the fact that there is a clear lack of doubt in the market�s mind that Kibo will pull off the significant SP Rerating news we all hope for, the assets here under management are huge, clearly enough folks don�t believe the �story� here or we wouldn�t be at an MCAP of �27m or so��. However, I wonder 18 months ago or so at BMN what people were thinking? SP of 1.30p from memory, MCAP under �10m if memory serves right? It was clear that in hindsight that the SP there at that point was way off, the right news here and hindsight will prove the current MCAP of �27m or so to be way off also. JD

To be fair, the overwhelming reason for that is the fact that 50% more shares are now in issue from then to now. That is going to weigh us down in the 4/5p range until we get news on the PPA, SML, FC, MCIPP��.. JD

Just in the interest of balance, while the SP isn�t great (and after all that is what we care about) we shouldn�t lose site of the fact that this is a company that (through dilution true) has grown a lot recently, while the SP languishes, the MCAP has not, the assets have grown considerably of late and a MCAP of �27m is close to an all-time high (if you discount when Kibo originally floated). As suggested yeaterday, sentiment can change on a dime, it has approx. �3m in cash and if the PPA dropped tomorrow, I bet none of us will be spending much time questioning our historical judgment. JD

bespooked, spot on, it very well could be, all just a guessing game at the mo. JD

Frustrated, more than concerned to be fair. The longer it goes on the more convinced I am this is now down to cost and KIBO / TG are in a staring completion to see who gives first. The longer it goes on the more I may be concerned if it becomes clear that the TG are incapable of dealing with quality private organisations who are not in fact looking to shaft the country, but who are merely looking for a fair return on their upfront capita costs and risk. To be fair to LC I don�t see much criticism at this point to throw his way, he probably doesn�t have an update to give as I would imagine it would be along the lines of �currently playing tariff tennis with TANESCO�. If the TG are trying �starve� him out in the negotiations, they have picked the wrong guy, from my interaction with him he clearly knows what the deal is he wants and that he believes Kibo (shareholders) deserves and after sticking with this for so long I doubt he is in the mood do give that away. The problem that gives us as shareholders is �when� will a deal be struck as the two parties try and impose their wills over the costs. It could be a long old game of chess��. JD

Yes, Wimbo, as far as I can see the AFDB are interested in partnerships with the private sector i.e. part fund projects they think improves the lives of African Citizens. So for MCPP as an example them may fund it a percentage at a very low interest rate (as their AAA Credit Rating can demand) in order to keep the costs of the project down, but they are not in the business of ponying up USD$2B, combined the AFDB only have made approx. USD$50B in investments throughout its 40+ year history over nearly 3000 projects! The AFDB are not in the business of putting up huge one off numbers for a project like Stigler�s Gorge Project. The below article also makes it clear that Environmental Lobby Groups will demand an environmental impact assessment to be undertaken, what will that take, years? The more and more you here JPM speak, the more it sounds like hot air escaping into the atmosphere. Although more frustrating when Kibo have a project ready to roll off the trucks and ready to go. http://allafrica.com/stories/201804190814.html JD

No, think that is unfair, the AFDB is a legitimate organisation with a fully credited AAA Credit Rating from the Credit Agencies. They are very prudent and only fund projects that are full tested and show genuinely value for money. Because of that I have serious doubts they will fund Stigler�s Gorge Project. They also have �Environmentally� Suitability in their charter, which is prize territory for the WWF to lobby the life out of them over Stigler�s Gorge Project. But that aside, it has no design and no preferred contractor, if the AFDB do decide to fund it you are looking at years to develop a funding package, years to build it and years to commission it, let along fill the reservoir us (assuming climate change and drought issues don�t kill off the viability of it first) and then generate power, of course Tanzania�s current crop of Hydro Electric Dams don�t work at full capacity anyway because of drought. No, don�t really think corruption has much to do with it, just good old fashion incompetence so the current President can have a dam named after him. JD

http://mobil.wwf.de/fileadmin/fm-wwf/Publikationen-PDF/WWF-Report-Selous-True-Cost-Of-Power.pdf Just wait till the Environmental Lobby sink their teeth into the AFDB and try and scuttle it. Already talk of legal action being brought against it. JD

Yes, that’s where we are alright. It’s now a staring contest with Kibo on one side and the TG on the other. It’s the most important decision we’ll have, no point Building a project with no reasonable IRR in it. JD

If Stigler’s Gorge Project goes ahead (50/50) judging by similar sized hydroelectric projects in recent history you are looking at 10 years before it generates power. It’s a proper tin pot dictator ‘look at your leader’ project. Farce. JD

Back to the �when� discussion�. The TG have gotten themselves into such a mess over the new legislation that all of this takes a lot of time to sort out, and to be fair with the new Mining Commission it actually now looks like they are trying to sort it out, but the backlog will not look pretty, of course, this is all interconnected, the PPA, the SML and FC, so what that does for the �when� and timeframes??? And I will disagree with the Temporary Licence being particularly useful in our instance. Like a large project in the UK, you are not going to through hundreds of millions of pounds on a project with �Outline� Planning Permission, you need the Full �Detailed� Permission, same here unfortunately, institutions aren�t putting USD$800m down on the table on a Temporary Licence, they just aren�t. JD

Ah, should read back. JD

Could the text be posted, kind sir, can’t read it on my phone for some reason. JD

Some great posts on here today, hammers home the fact that Tanzania is in a desperate need for good reliable base load energy at a decent stable long term price. Therfore, how long can the TG procrastination go on....... JD