Member Info for JDwag

A very good article that one, Wimbo. JD

Yes, ‘when’ is the up in the air phrase I guess. Could very well be dragged out further if very Tom, Dick and Harry in the TG wants their say. JD

No, I still think this is 100% the case of �when not if�. Researching Tanzania�s other Power Projects and MCPP tells its own story, it is wildly critical for Tanzania that it goes ahead (and will IMHO) as MCPP is lightyears ahead of other IPP Projects in the country, if they are even remotely serious of their 5,000Mw / 10,000Mw 2020 / 2025 targets MCPP goes ahead. I think what we are debating here, is what about beyond MCPP, if Tanzania are going to extract a decade plus a time out of companies that have ploughed tens of millions of dollars into a project and are willing to fund billion dollar projects then I think LC is rather prudent in looking out beyond its borders for new projects (why wouldn�t you). And as for outright mining projects in Tanzania? After the government takes 21% off for the �House� before you having even kicked a ball then good look encouraging inward investment on that basis. JD

As of 2016, Botswana had a GDP per capita of $USD 6,788.04, Tanzania had a GDP per capita of USD$879.19 USD, this despite Tanzania gaining independence first! There are multiple reasons for this, most however, it is because of inward investment, Botswana has nailed it and encourages it, Tanzania is a country where nothing much happens which is why there are cutting down all of their forests to burn for heating fuel, the country�s power supply as laughably chronic, and you do have to wonder if the Government care, when you look at the Stiegler's Gorge Hydroelectric Dam for example I would suggest not, pie in the sky stuff, that the current TG President thinks can be built, commissioned and generating electricity on a 2100Mw Power Plant inside three years, this despite having no design, no preferred bidder contractor and no funding, in the middle of a world heritage conservation site. Projects like MCPP are their future for a successful country, it�s a 50/50 if they get that, but that has been Africa�s Post Independence issue, they rarely do. Like Wimbo says, thank goodness for having SEPCO and GE in tow for MCPP, without them, I wonder���. JD

Seems to be going along to more and more negotiations lately in Energy / Mineral Projects. I do wonder if they stick to their June deadline in the oil project??? http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/Uganda--Tanzania-set-new-fast-track-deadline-crude-oil-pipeline-/688334-4546540-rn89d0z/index.html JD

I would be impressed if we got it at the 8/9 cents per kilowatt hour range. JD

Other way lol. JD

Sleepydave, possibly! But something is holding it up, maybe just the new AG wanting to cross his ‘i’s’ and dot his ‘t’s’ before getting his Parker out...... JD

Is way down on my list of things to worry about I’ll be honest. The biggest single issue as we stand here just now is not just getting the PPA signed in the first place, but to have enough ‘slack’ on the Tarrif to make it have a sensible IRR to Investors (debt and equity) to allow them to invest. This is a third world country in East Africa with an ‘average’ debt grading, there has to be a sensible IRR allowed or forget it. And there is Africa and Tanzania’s historically issue! Does the TG / JPM get this? If they don’t their constituents will live in the dark forever. I have little doubt this is now all about money in the negotiations, considering how advanced the design and feasibility of this project is there can be nothing left to be discussing, surely? JD

Is for sure. I think we have all learned on the job so to speak of just how long and how much cash it takes to progress these kinds of huge projects. NCCL will have to do what Kibo has done and raise mutli millions if it is to keep the vast majority of its stake in the project and advance it to a stage where it is completely derisked and at which point investors come in for a stake. The alternative is you give a lot of it away front end so you let someone else pay for that, problem is you lose the vast majority of your projects. No easy wins as a Junior..... JD

Viability. JD

Indeed. Them like us need to demonstrate value for money to their respective governments in order to achieve the much needed PPA for 25 years plus, the whole business case depends on it. I ha e no doubt that is what the MCPP negotiations ha e come down too, money, how much are the TG willing to pay in a Tarrif and how much Kibo needfor viavility. It always comes down to money let’s be honest. JD

Melbourne time 4X for me. JD

I’m about to get a beer in in just an hour or so, so I’ll drink with you. AIM and the companies on it are a funny old thing, you can never tell the why and when a company takes off. However, for Kibo it’s all about the ‘Known Unknowns’ for me. We know what will allow the Company’s MCAP to take off, it’s just unknown when that will arrive and just how ‘lucrative’ it will be to company and shareholders alike. Add to that, there has been a bucket of shares issued recently, that is going to temporarily weigh down the SP too. 101% convinced it will happen for the reasons outlined below, but African governments generally are awful at implementing good quality projects which provide good value and allow their voters to improve their lives, fecklessness (and other things of course) has held that continent back for decades (post independence). JD

Yeah, me too, thinkthis is just one of those legacy ‘funding’ issues to get out the way. JD

However, I take the view that Sanderson simply saw an attractive VWAP and took it while it was going. Every man and their dog knows a PPA could be delivered today, tomorrow or next week, doubt you can jump to many conclusions on this to be fair. JD

Only a few weeks ago was touting that Stieglers Gorge Dam was funded and ready to go, not taken long for that to fall apart. I doubt they even have a feasible design yet considering they are still tendering for the EPC Lead Contractor, if they are now touting for funding of a project then they are probably years off starting, another drawing board pipe dream from an African Government?? https://www.esi-africa.com/tanzania-appeals-to-afdb-to-finance-stieglers-gorge-hydropower-plant/ JD

I still sign up to the idea that we are in the final (fraught) stages of agreeing the PPA so nothing has changed in any required notifications legally required to the market. It strikes me a lot like the MoU this. They agreed it then it still took weeks to get signed. Africa Time as some alluded to earlier. And don’t discount the TG trying to string arm the best possible Tarrif out of Kibo, which is their duty to domof course. JD

Hi Funki, hope your well, yes, perspective is good at times lol. JD

A cold beer in my hand overlooking the Sydney Opera House at my hotel roof bar, a nice RNS in 40 mins would cap this off just nicely. JD