Member Info for JConchy

A good sized discovery in our first well does so much more than create value in itself , it will demonstrate the reality of the Bahamas as a Petroleum Province and we hold most of the interesting licences and the data. LTHs will need to stay calm over coming months.

Still, the example of Cove that sold out for £1.2bn after 3 years and only owned 8% of the asset is an example of what can be achieved. BPC has been pretty liberal with shares and options at low prices but a .777 to 1.5 bn barrel discovery will be worth real money but how much per share?

Can anyone find the post earlier today that referenced FT analysts forecasts of 12 months share prices inc some amazingly high numbers for BPC?

I don't want to be accused of P&D but anyone got the details how they arrived at these v as lues?

Joe Conchy is the greatest fan & a 10 yr bull of BPC from the Family Islands so not privy to the latest rumours off Lyford Cay Golf course. Felt i understood this share but am now glad not to have taken the loss & traded out . Timing of news is impossible to predict and patience is still needed. Even with dilution the size of discovery anticipated could give us 20-50 x so lets sit back and enjoy the ride. I’ve fitted new shockers to the truck in case we hit a few bumps on the way.

While LTHs remain optimistic we should not assume any massive rise. All signs are that news is delayed and what ultimately gets announced can be disappointing news. Eg something is not right on the funding or rig contract. This has always been the BPC way. Say the minimum as late as possible!

LTHs know the score here. The opportunity is big with the best CoS but without a Farm Out BPC is scrambling to fund a well before Licences are lost. Pity Total have committed to Apache off Suriname . If only BPC could get a money back deal and free carry like that. If we do manage to drill and hit commercially then this time next year ... LoL

Id like to know we are fully funded for the first well at least. That’s the big Question. Final Rig contract , Farm Out etc all pretty secondary. Having come this far I’m thinking a Farm Out could just dilute shareholders too early.

Any Mutual Fund to invest in BPC has still got to be formed and be offered to investors in Bahamas. There are unlikely to be many risk taking B$ investors with huge pots of capital so i’d anticipate only a small take up at inception. However it will likely bring in a few $ m to BPC and provide a welcome route in to the biggest investment opportunity the Bahamas has ever known. Curiously the MF is only needed as there is Exchange Control in Bahamas and one benefit of oil discovery will be the ability of Government to eliminate Exchange Control at last! Set the People Free!!

All of us VLTH who have held substantial $$$ shares for a decade or more have confidence in the v high chances of success. What is difficult to understand is why its been so hard to fund this first well inc no farm in??

Other posters might help us understand .

We could easily be heading for a delayed spud date pending another funding round to ensure sufficient $$ to pay for the well. We can’t be far off having enough lucre but if the single well is a duster who would want to pay off Seadrill and the other contractors?

Happy Christmas U guys. Santa will be coming to town in a while.

While its naturally disappointing there has been no news for a while IMO what is more concerning is the lack of build up in market interest. We may be in for a longer wait and drilling on our own as planned. Chances of Farm Out must be very slim now as contracts need to be executed to meet the spud date.

Could BPC be bigger and better than Poseidon? Some of us remember those days

As a LTH I'm not selling come what may , and agree that any volatility should be ignored. If we’re confident the well is going to be drilled the shares ought to be a bit more perky.

The BPC share price does not suggest that the funding if the first well is fully in place. While another round of share issuance may not be until New Year my interpretation is that we need another $10m to fully fund the well and have a margin of working capital to satisfy the CLN terms & conditions and capitalise on a first well discovery . We ought to be confident that the well will be drilled so i expect news of rig confirmation before long. Hopefully that will help sentiment and get the funds in place . That would be nice for Christmas .

Am i right that Rig contract should be confirmed by end November? Of course Farm In news could drop by New Year but my guess is that once we mobilize its really too late for a partner to get in before the drill result is known.

We’re moving into an era orfhigher volumes and bigger investors. These 100k guys should get used to it. Like:- 100m daily volumes , tight spreads and 20% daily movement like it used to be.

We still need more money to finish the drill so may need to issue more shares if no Farm In. Hang on to your hats

The reason the shares are so lack lustre this morning must be that the CLN is not real money. Eg it’s so conditional no one expects us to use it for funding the well. We still need the farm out or another massive equity issue , even for 1 well ! Oh dear.

When will we know the well is fully funded ?

It will be good to get confirmation that the OO is oversubscribed but until we know for sure the well is fully funded nothing much can happen. The CLN is so hedged about that it’s funny money and the OO money on its own will just keep a few people in Dom Perignon for a while and doesn’t drill even 1 well.

Every sign is that the OO will be fully subscribed. On confirmation that is so and that we are now definitely drilling early 2020 the shares will go wild.

4p on the announcement is not unreasonable but IMO that hardly represents full value. 12p is more like it before the well so one can understand why the board have squared their options! We could be 40p value on a discovery - even with this huge number of shares in issue or contemplation.