Member Info for jc1983

Thanks Geoffster. I agree that MNZS is intrinsically sound, but believe that the news delivery aspect will soon become a millstone around its neck. Smiths News still sees belt-tightening as a major factor in staying afloat as its generated revenues fall. Yes, revenues fell, despite the 'grip'. I can see smaller newsagents who rely heavily on newspapers to bring in customers to impulse buy chockolate and drinks etc., struggling and going bust with extra competition from the major superstores, and news delivery becoming centralised and even fragmented. Advertisers are being drawn away by online marketing and sophisticated free newspapers in big cities, such as the Metro and Evening Standard, which target workday commuters with spending power. I think it would be an excellent time for MNZS to pare down and to liquidise assets in this direction if that were possible, especially in the current economic circumstances. If it asset liquidation in this area became possible, do you not think that the canny BOD would jump at the opportunity?

... and who bought MNZS retail interests? Why WH Smith of course. And who yesterday was reported as saying: 'Our medium term strategy is clear and progressing well. We are actively engaged with acquisition targets' ...? Why Mark Cashmore, CEO of Smiths News. The same Smiths News which acquired Dawsons recently. Do you think MNZS news delivery arm could be part of a takeover deal in the not too distant future? Surely not! Thoughts please.

Whoops, I forgot. Menzies sold their retail operation quite some time ago. Whoaaa ... !!!

Yes, I think it is beginning to dawn on people that the recently published accounts actually showed a fall in the revenue generated and that the profit was largely due to £22 million's worth of 'belt-tightening'. I believe Oriel Securities and Shore Capital were right in seeing through the 'gloss' and downgrading Smiths News.

I respect what you are saying Geoffster, but beg to differ. Newsprint circulation is falling significantly, while online reading is increasing. Menzies should be reasonably OK if they can get their act together because of the buffer and leverage that their retail operation could provide. However, I don't see any real signs that they are consolidating their position and moving with the times. Other companies are preparing themselves to fight over scraps and could be threats in a diminishing market. I suspect that the SP will fall then settle for a short while. If MNZS have any cards up their sleeves, that will be the time to play them.

Report from a few minutes ago: Smiths News has been downgraded by Oriel Securities.

Thanks for opening the debate. First, WH Smith is not the same company as Smiths News. WHS, in it's wisdom, got rid of the news/magazine delivery side of its operation several years ago. Incidentally, WH Smith announced last week that it has done a deal with Canadian tech firm Kobo to sell eReaders 'to counter the shift away from' the printed page. Secondly, the circulation figures for the daily newspapers for last month show a significant, continued decline, while online readership is up. The Metro has also announced it's iPad app free newspaper. Finally, the prevailing authoritative opinion is that we are now in a downturn. Smiths News Total Assets: £181.20m; Total Liabilities: £243.60m. In March 2009 the Smiths News share price was 51.25p. I believe we are heading back into that zone. The writing is on the wall.

I agree that there have been 'cost cutting and efficiences' although I would prefix those words with 'severe'. Self-employed owner van drivers who comprise the bulk of the Smiths News fleet are feeling the pinch. They will even further with Quantitatative Easing announced recently meaning higher commodity prices. I believe this company has over-extended itself in a market that is diminshing. Why would a publisher prefer to incur massive labour costs in newsprint delivery when the same news or magazine can be delivered at the touch of a button to an Ipad, or the new Kindle? Users receiving their news this way prefer it - ask any such commuter user on the tube in London. The horse gave way to the car; vinyl gave way to CDs; CDs are being eaten into by MP3 downloads. I expect the crunch will occur just after Christmas. If you can get 80p per share I would say that is a very good deal.

Apologies for being so cynical, but FTSE 100 down by 2.7%; Services down by 1.46%; John Menzies down 14.50 (2.91%); Smiths News not one single trade! Do I detect eggshells?

Mid-day. FTSE 100 down. Not one single NWS trade. Other days reveal what to my mind are patterns of trading of these shares - back and forth. Why do I get the feeling that this share-price is being kept artificially high?

Reported on Journalism.co.uk today: The Guardian and Independent have become the first UK newspapers to launch a new style Facebook app, unveiled at the social media giant's annual F8 conference in London last night (22 September). Both belong to a "new class of apps", according to Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and "have the ability not only to change the way we think about news but have the ability to change the way the whole news industry works". 'According to the Guardian, this 'could be very interesting in terms of traffic'. With rumblings of a new round of Quantitative Easing making commodity prices higher e.g. newsprint and oil, are we now seeing the last vestiges of news distribution as we know it? Will other developments such as the Ipad and free newspapers have a damaging affect on paid newsprint orientated companies such as Menzies (newspaper retail and transportation) and Smiths News (newspaper transportation)? I suspect Christmas will be a very telling time.

US analysts, The Benchmark Company, have now upgraded Arm from their previous position of Hold to Buy (ARMH NASDAQ).

Arm News 19th September 2011. Microsoft’s long-held duopoly with Intel has come to an end with the unveiling of Windows 8 platforms. CNN Money confirms: "Windows 8 will run on both x86 chips and processors based on the architecture created by British chip designer ARM."

Who needs a takeover when Arm is making inroads into Intel? However, new chips = new licences and therefore a takeover might not be so out of the question in the not too distant future.

Seeking Alpha has Arm Holdings as one of the seven best performing large cap tech stocks and states that: "Out of nine analysts covering the company, three have buy ratings, four have hold ratings and two have sell ratings." As I am writing this the share price is 590.00. Hmmmm ...

You were saying? All my calls so far have been right. I dislike the personal put downs here and it makes me think whether the voices stem from those with an interest in talking Arm's shares down. Reasons for directors selling their share can be plural, other than the most obvious to outsiders. To be considered though. For me, Intel's toe-hold into Arm's 'universality' raised an eyebrow and a note for caution. I believe the Arm situation is in a state of flux. Several financial organisations have recently labelled Arm as a buy.

While I was writing my last post, the share price was 570.00, but then seems to have dropped briefly to 535.00 while posting it. Strange.

I detect some powerful forces in play! Microsoft and Arm involvement possibly influencing Intel and Google get-together, which might affect Arm's 'universality' ethic - greasing the wheels for any take over bid, if it happens; big money trades; factionalisation and battle lines being drawn; some feeling this is a good time to sell; etc. ... I have a feeling the share price rise will be checked and possibly fall, followed by further power play! Too much swirling around makes me hesitant in making a medium/long term call.

Lot of negging in LJEB's post, but interesting nonetheless. Also indirectly from Apple who came out and said British companies are lagging behind other countries in IT. However, it sounds to me that the share price is being talked down for one thing only - takeover and to my mind with Apple being the most likeliest candidate. Incidentally, I don't believe that a takeover is necessary for these shares to rise further. Qualcomm's Snapdragon range of chips which have a licensed Arm core (e.g. the MSM8960) are reported to have broken the long-standing relationship between Intel chips and Windows software.i.e. on Windows 8 - tablets so far Also, Arm recently announced that it has vacancies for an additional 100 top designers. It seems that Arm thinks it's on the up.

LONDON (SHARECAST) report published minutes ago: Merchant Securities analyst Julian Tolley said that the firm is already well-placed to take a significant market share (of at least 25%) of smart phones. Tolley speculates that ARM Core processors will be used in ultrabooksm laptops, iPhone 5 launching in October and cut-price version of the current iPhone 4. MS give Arm a buy rating and 580p target price.