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This Ofcom reports gives some numbers and a feel for the mix of news channels. Page 17 gives some numbers for news magazines. I read somewhere other generic magazines not the ones listed (may include some news/current affair) have dropped by around 60% in the last 10 years. Some of the titles my son prints have dropped by more than 35% in the same period. Even free newspapers like the Metro circulation have dropped. No doubt some niche magazines may have grown, or the decline has stabalised a bit like what's forecast for letters, but even if they were to grow by 10% for next 5 years that's not going to make the 6 day USO commercially viable IMO.
I would be delighted to see growth in print media, particularly for delivery, and to secure my son's current job, but unless the switch to digital slows down dramatically I can't see it.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0027/241947/News-Consumption-in-the-UK-2022-report.pdf
DerekR I get what you are saying. It's a bit of a misnomer current affairs. Anything that is now printed overnight is out of date as soon as it hits the streets/door mats. Of course, some people like print and hard copy same with books etc v Kindle/iPad etc. but it is a declining audience. I am sure the producers can lobby and have some influence. but I still don't think it stacks up with 97% not having an issue with frequency of deliveries. Let's see what the representations deliver.
DerekR With volumes of traffic going into callers' offices reducing, it must follow that there will be fewer customers that will be inconvenienced, and I expect that trend to continue. It is also more convenient for lots of customers to use the redelivery options.
Re USO survey I don't have a breakdown of the 97% / 3% and you are probably right that the senders of the titles you list might be unhappy, but I think some of the 97% who would be happy with 5 days are also recipients of some of the titles you mention.
I am sure the titles you mention have a decent and growing number of digital customers as well and print versions of most major titles and magazines are in terminal decline. Ask anyone under the age of 40 when they last bought a newspaper or magazine, and I would expect 90% would say they haven't in the last 5 years.
I don't have circulation numbers but I would expect the titles you quote probably have a print circulation of 500k or less between them and I appreciate there are lots of others but to not revise the USO for billions of items that 97% would be satisfied with for a very small number that would like a magazine with their lunch/afternoon tea on a Saturday doesn't seem a particularly compelling argument.
My son works in the print industry producing some of the country's major titles and the drop in circulation over the last few years is horrific and in his words is a dying industry. Thankfully, he can accept things are changing and he will adapt.
Broch you are correct don't underestimate the public. Of course, that is all of us.
Useful that when anyone employees complain about their offices the business can use its down to public demand we have to stay in these old decrepit buildings and are uneconomical to constantly repair and maintain. I have been in scores of DO's and some are obviously much better than others in terms of condition.
I know who would want to move to a leak proof, warm industrial unit with easy parking, better facilities.
I know the business keeps CSP's under review and with the introduction of next day redelivery volumes should drop. I can't recall the last time I needed to drive to my local DO to collect an item.
Re councils and footfall yes, I am sure council planners are critical when high street stores move out and their rates income and parking revenue drops. I am a strong advocate of shopping locally and supporting independent small businesses but a few people popping in to collect an item isn't going to save or regenerate our high streets.
DerekR agreed it's a thorny issue to tackle and pressure can be applied from lots of quarters. With Ofcom's own survey showing 97% of customers would be happy with a 5-day service plus CWU agreeing to be involved and some frontline troops saying how wonderful it would be to have a 5-day week and cover Saturday/Sundays with part timers/agency/new recruits/overtime/SA there may well be a decent level of internal support.
Customers may also accept a slightly reduced frequency if much more consistent and higher QoS.
I dont expect any new government after the next election would be that keen to have it on their list of priorities.
As I was hoping this did get a couple of brief mentions, but IMO is one of the fundamental issues to be addressed.
"– Universal Service Obligation (USO) requires major reform. We urge the Government to work with us to protect the longterm sustainability of the one-price-goes-anywhere Universal Service.
The agreement also provides for joint working on an approach to the regulator and Government on the much needed modernization of the USO. In the longer term"
AngerS agree and worth looking out for only £6m this year vs £72m (nine elms plots) so when they say material should be a decent sum. I agree re many of the DO's lots of poor quality buildings and although GLS is going to see the bulk of investment I hope there is scope to rehouse some of the worst.
It also gets a mention in the Analysts presentation along with another interesting comment.
"• Avoiding cross subsidy between the businesses,
whilst appropriately supporting business strategies
and priorities
− Royal Mail will look to offset the negative
impacts on cashflow from its trading losses
with certain material real estate disposals"
AngerS I picked up on that and most of what I was hoping to see mentioned was. Some property will be thrown up with concentration into the new parcel hubs, next month for launch. I am sure in the report it mentioned over 70% of parcels now automated and it did hit 80%. I am sure some of our frontline colleagues will hear of any sites being amalgamated etc.
IMO that's why integration of parcel force is important. Because of the geographical nature of deliveries not that many Dos get consolidated its more mech office, parcel depots and distribution centres and of course is dependent on the revised network plans including switch to rail, I wonder if we will see the reintroduction of the TPO's (travelling post office)
Citadel reduce further.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BDVZYZ77/
AngerS agreed still lots to do but hopefully we can now establish a base to start the rebuild. CEO appointment will be important, and I thought we may have had an announcement today particularly if it was going to be an internal candidate.
The new NED appointment looks to have a strong CV hopefully the new CEO will as well.
The more you read the full statement there are some very encouraging forecasts for growth in profit. I know the agreement has a lifespan, but I am hoping the frontline employees will start to see some profit-sharing benefits and we might even see the dividend being reinstated.
Underlying adjusted operating profit, excluding strategic investments, and working day effects, expected to be in the range
€380 to €400 million - only slightly below the 2022-23 outturn - despite challenging macroeconomic conditions.
– Short term uplift in capex, to approx. 5% of sales, returning to historic 3-4% within 2-3 years.
– Target €500 million adjusted operating profit in 2026-27.
For completeness always worth reading a full sentence
H1 2023-24 adjusted operating loss expected to be higher year on year. H2 expected to see significant year on year
improvement, due to revenue recovery and efficiency initiatives as well as lapping main impacts of industrial disruption.
Significant improvement thats bold.
Headline numbers are grim but as expected. I have only read the full PDF version on IDS website once, and I am fairly encouraged by some of the details and forward-looking statements.
Lots of dependencies on agreement being ratified.
https://www.internationaldistributionsservices.com/media/12036/ids-plc-fy-2022-23-results-rns-18-5-23.pdf