RE: Fitch just upgraded THG2 May 2025 13:22
Some more detail on FITCH upgrade:
Management Focus on Profitability: We expect margins to improve towards their historical levels of 5%-6% from 2025 (estimated at 3.6% in 2024). This improvement will be driven by a recovery in the margins of the larger in terms of EBITDA and more profitable nutrition business following average selling price normalisation and easing costs for whey. We also expect the EBITDA margin in beauty retail to be supported by THG's strategic focus on more profitable products and markets, and further development of its own prestige brands. We assume profitability gains will be balanced by modest pressure from personnel and marketing expenses.
Positive FCF From 2025: We estimate THG's free cash flow (FCF) margin will stabilise at above 2% from 2025 (2024: -3.3%), driven by the EBITDA improvement, but also reduced interest costs following the A&E deal and materially reduced capex needs after the Ingenuity business demerger.