Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
This was 100p in 2019 and 110p in 2021……just think of the progress that has been achieved since then……
They are adding 20-30p per annum for the next few years to the shareholder value and paying out 3p growing to 6p in 6 years….the additional value should mostly flow to the SP.
Add 25p for 4 years and this is £2/share…..it is now makes sense from an investors perspective so I expect we will see a rapid re-rating during 2024 and then steady growth for the next few years….
DAB - agree….we can expect them to add 30p and more to the TNAV for the next 5-10 years just on UK business.
There is approx 100p of debt to repay….but all the additional value flows to Shareholders and most of it should be added to the SP.
Whatever price the Directors were holding out for last year is justified and they will add some more for any new discussions. I dont intend to sell any (except in GIA to move to ISA/SIPP wrapper).
I see 2024 being a year of gains for QLT.
1. This is an election year - so there will be more people wanting advice ahead of a likely change in government.
2 SJP is in disarray…..there will be advisors and clients looking for a new home.
3 Management is confident
Published on the LGEN website - the key metrics are:
Operating profit 1753m
Dividend 20.34
SCR 217%
This is based on 13 submissions. The Divi is aligned with 5% increase previously stated so is more or less nailed on…..The SCR would allow significant additional dividends and Buy Backs so there could be additional SH returns.
I think this is a sell anything with significant China interests story.
The last sales results and new business profits were pretty decent……
I cant believe the SP has sunk this low……
It can realistically only rally when there is an everything China rally and it will outperform that…..hard to see where the trigger for that is coming from…..I suspect we will be able to buy in the 600s soon and possible 500s later this year if nothing changes in China.
The unknowable is how much (if anything) is a partner willing to pay……
LTH may believe this is worth 300p…..that no funding path has been implemented despite it being clear that this company is quickly running out of cash mean that a forced sale at a knockdown price is the only way forward.
My breakeven is around 125p……I am not going to put more cash at risk at this very uncertain juncture…I am expecting a significant loss, but if the BoD can get an offer over £100m I will be very thankful…..
They also need to be working on the old plan A as a buyer could string them along until they do go bust - not very ethical, but it does happen.
Maybe the best that can be hoped for is 50p plus a warrant for a further sum should sales targets be met…..
Revenues follow 2-3 years after drug development news….AZ has an exceptional pipeline of drug candidates….and have been excellent judges of potential in the past (they paid Dai-ichi $6bn to licence this drug..and it is not disappointing).
It is sensible to review strategy.
In recent memory LGEN has disposed of its heritage book to Reassure (now Phoenix) and its personal lines business. It also started building prefab housing and took a decision to close it last year.
There will be some non-core assets that can be sold, and subscale units to make bolt on acquisitions….the world is changing in asset management and they had the LDI issues so they may want to make some changes in that division.
The main LGR division is big enough in the UK, maybe some US expansion to be done…
It will be hard to change the group radically, but I do expect restructuing, cost savings and more outsourcing.
The company website has the results on the 8th……I am aware sites like HL show them reporting on 7th….I would hope the company has it right and it is the sources that HL and others use that is out of date.
I am expecting TNAV to increase by 30p which all accrues to shareholders….there is about 100p of debt in the value they publish….the sp will trade at a discount….given this increase should recur for several years to come I expect a strong increase in SP for the patient.