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The target market is indeed very large….but what will the penetration be? And can they deliver the tests accurately?
1% of 10m is 100k and $95m revenue….that is a significant multiple of what they have done so far….dont expect a smooth ride..there will be operational issues if demand picks up…but that would be a good problem to have to resolve compared to bankruptcy.
And hitting $55 now.
The profit numbers are crazy…..if the yanks ever adopt IFRS17 the volatility would go away and it would look more like it is making the adjusted profit.
The RBC valuations make 400% approximate to a normal 180% SCR under Solvency II.
They have plenty of surplus capital and can afford to continue to pay the dividend and make buy backs…..it seems they may buy back another 6m shares this year…..boosting EPS for us and management. $60 later this year I think.
After a bit of a soggy patch, today’s rise is possibly a result of Haleon impressing with their self treatment products indicating that customers continue to purchase.
Roll on the results in early April.
They have in the past put a concensus paper on the website a day or so before the results.
Covering the dividend with operating cash flow would be a good start….divi cash cost flat but total raised bc of the Buyback.
Progress on the cost saving agenda and capital generation targets
Improving Fund Perforrmance
Sorting out the platform and advice businesses in Wealth.
Pointers to come from LGEN and AV next week about how the larger life offices are faring.
The dead cat bounce has the look of a decomposing body rising to the surface before it sinks to the bottom waterlogged to rot.
Or Schroders…..they have a JV with Lloyds for mass market and the wealthier STJ clients may be attracted to the blue blooded boys and gals at SDR.
Although SDR was sniffy about the culture at MNG, and may well turn their nose up at the oiks at STJ.
The results on Fri 8 March cant come soon enough for me.
That there is no run up in the SP tells me there is nothing surprising expected in the results….in which case Just can expect to be trading on a P/E of less than 5. Have a strong capital position and be increasing the NAV /share attributable to shareholders (There is about £1bn of debt).
There may be little coverage by analysts, but surely some are noticing Just is a lot stronger and more valuable than it has been for many years….A SP gain of 10-20p would be most welcome.
Nothing to see hear folks! The plan is in place, just a little slower than we promised.
US reaction is muted….I would expect HK to open positively (ie recover todays loss), but not much more.
There was nothing really to get the analysts excited…first dividend, buy back.
I expect continued pipeline and revenue progress but a relatively dull share price unless the Board decides it has excess capital and can either spend on licensing / M&A or make a return to shareholders….it may get interesting in three years time when they should be profitable….only 25 years in the making, patient capital indeed.
TichTich
If you look in the SFCR (Solvency and Financial Condition Report) and probably in an appendix to their results presentations you will find a table setting out how the SCR (Solvency Capital Ratio) is affected by various adverse events…..this should give you some sense of how the capital position (and hence dividend paying capacity) may develop……the problem with these pieces of individual data is that no single market event (interest rate / equity change) will occur without some effects in other sensitivitiies. The longevity is largely independent of the markets on the upside…..and can come about through a series of medical innovations but a mass death event although positive for the longevity reserve may also create financial issues as seen in the recent pandemic.
The companies and regulators seem to believe the current SII capital requirements are sufficient and there has not been a major life insurance failure since their inception to demonstrate otherwise. (Touch wood/ fingers crossed…etc)
Is the market thinking QLT will need to compensate clients for past service failings?
Results in March will need to make clear what QLT situation is.
There has been a fair amount of slippage from 2024 NDAs into 2025….and the Amdiz items have slipped out of the 24/25 timeline (under review but my view would be unlikely in the next two years).
This does not seem to change the story in that the cash flow from the oncology business is rapidly improving.
I hope they can land a partner for Sovlep later this year - once the China NDA is approved they will have a better case. I assume that is going to be in Q3. I also hope that Takeda will begin to develop Fruq for other indications (the GC indication will be first, not sure how Lilly / Inno feel about the sintilimab combo being taken outside China - that probably needs another licensing agreement).
Looking forward to reading the Takeda quarterly results for Fruqzala sales - hope HCM adopts a quarterly sales update.
The overall profit of $100m is a strong result, stripping out the 280m recognised of the Takeda upfront payment there was a loss of $180m which is half the $360m loss of 2022.
The Amdiz news is not unexpected (it was too quiet), so that is some revenue missing from 2025/26 but not critical.
2024 revenue growth is going to come from Takeda royalties and Sovlep in China. They should make a further dent in the underlying loss and possibly turn another profit this year depending on how much of the remaining Takeda cash is recognised.
2025 hopes depend on Takeda making the most of Fruqzala globally. They should be close to an underlying profit.
No surprises….a very solid set of numbers.
The business damage is yet to emerge…..
Partners / distribution staff leave to other IFA networks
Clients going elsewhere
Poor servicing caused by the above.
A three year recovery plan means it will be a very different business before it is investible again.
I suspect there will be a lot more red ink in the next year and the SP has further to fall….
Eventually there may be some M&A to deliver some value but this may be a low ball PE deal so that the business can be broken up out of the public gaze,
It is a sell for me
2027 is the timeline for some sort of recovery…..
This is a speculative investment for the next 3 years….best avoided….the best partners are likely to drift away to IFA networks and other wealth managers….there is lots of red ink to come from SJP.
In some ways it does seem strange that the scale of these plans / provisions have not been flagged earlier.
I am expecting the new CEO to explain the problems and his plan to get the business moving again….he had better be convincing on both…..maybe he will want a new CFO.
It seems to me that the ground work is being laid for regulatory approval of this deal….albeit there will be some concessions over bandwidth and network access, including support for potential new MVNOs. The EU seems to be changing its position and even competitors recognise the need to earn a required rate of return which 3 and VOD are failing to do in the UK.
There will be more vested interests claiming the deal is bad…and needs amending to suit them and some will be addressed.
The national security debate is also interesting but is probably more an imagined risk than a real one. The work done to allow E& to be a major Vod shareholder is ultimately more important to strategy…the owner of 3 (CK Hutchison) will be increasingly isolated from the UK venture and there are options for both parties that result in CKH leaving the JV.
We can expect a stage 2 Competition review and a further 6 months…..hopefully the next govt does not try to move the goalposts at the last minute.
Beigene reported yesterday after HK close.
Its sales were nearly doubled to $2.2bn led by $1.1bn in US sales.
It consumed $1.2bn in its operations (this is a third better than 2022) and it gained $0.4bn from returns on its cash/near cash investments leaving it with funding of $3bn at the year end.
While its cash burn is reducing it is still some way from making a profit on its business activities.
Shares were up 5% today.
HCM is likely to show a gain in cash assets over the year due to the Takeda agreement, investment returns will provide an additional benefit……
Getting NDAs submitted in 2024 will pave the way for approvals in 2025, launches and then sales take off in 2026, which is when I suspect HCM will generate profits from its pharma business.
The company website is open to register for Wednesday’s results presentation (12:30 UK), the results are announced shortly before the presentation.
I expect a small IFRS profit and no dividend or buy back…if there is news of shareholder returns it should be a positive surprise for the market….A HK10c/UK 1p dividend would cost about HK$85m /£8m so quite affordable….and maybe in line with the Chinese directions to boost returns/value….a meaningful buy back would probably need to be closer to 5% of shares (40m) and cost more like hk$1bn/£100m which I think could be feasible in 2-3 years time.