Member Info for JASON99

The optimist in me says MAPA will send this flying, but the realist thinks MAPA is now partly built in and we’ll struggle to hold much over 20 unless the announcement is accompanied by sales. In any case, with MAPA it’s a whole new ball game.

Thanks for that, please do post a link.

MAPA will no doubt give us a boost, but it will be sales that will really propel the share price. If MAPA confirmation isn't accompanied by (or quickly followed by) confirmed sales, the share price will drift lower again. But one step at a time - let's get MAPA bagged and go from there.

calm before the storm?

And even lower now - I agree it’s oversold in the face of slow news flow. Can anyone who follows this company more closely provide some insight?

None at all. Presentations were only 15-20 mins and he focussed on Arupa.

It actually closed at 1.39 due to unwinding trade. Sure others can elaborate.

Harvest has said they expect a full permit mid 2019 but that they can keep taking out 50,000 ton chunks on the trial permit, which is good for four years (and was issued last year, I believe). Others can further clarify, I’m sure.

there was nothing on specific downside risks, though someone did ask if it wasn't all too good to be true - specifically why nobody else had found the resource. Mark said that nobody was looking for - or expecting - a soluble fertilizer in that region (apparently the fact it's soluble makes all the difference) and that they were lucky to find it. I came away thinking there is plenty of upside here, though it might still take some time. I remember a year or so again people saying on this board that 'all we have to do is shovel it on a truck and sell it' but of course there is much more to it than that. They are being thorough and achieving everything they've said they would achieve (so far).

The companies referred to in the brochure for calculating average PE are Nutrien, YARA International, Bunge Ltd, Mosaic, Safco, CF industries, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Israel chemicals, K+5, Compass Minerals, and Terra Nitrogen. If anyone has a day off today, please get to work confirming the average is 26.5.

Yes, in my notes I have him saying 'the trial mining permit lasts 4 years'. This would bring us to 2021 - plenty of time to secure the full license. Can anyone else comment on production for this year?

One last thing. In the brochure they distributed, they project a possible market cap of $360 million based on 450Ktpa of $21.35 million and a sector average PE of 26.75

HI all, so as I was saying, it was Mark Heyhoe (great last name for someone in agribusiness, btw) who gave the presentation at the London investor event last night. He was very upbeat, of course, saying Harvest had completely 'technically d-risked' the project, that there is resource for 100 years and that the target remains about 450,000 tons annually (at current capacity, they will be able to dig 50,000 tons every six weeks). So nothing new there. He mentioned that the new head of the mining department in Brazil is a 'fertilizer guy' (i.e. he has a background in fertilizer) and is very keen to promote such projects in Brazil. I asked about MAPA and he gave the clearest answer possible - 'we will get it and it will be this quarter'. So far, so good, though he was much weaker when asked about transport costs, saying 'I can't tell you off the top of my head'. He said most of the early clients would be 'nearby' and that costs should be less than $5/ton/100 km but said he wasn't exactly sure. Should he have had more accurate estimates? Absolutely. He also said they must submit a feasibility study (showing that they are capable of running the mine) and that that would be no problem. There was, however, one giant red flag for me - and I'm hoping someone on the board can help clarify, as I wasn't able to stay to the end of the event (two more companies presented after Harvest) and chat with Mark one-on-one. He said they do not expect the full mining license until MID 2019. He also said something about 'not really needing it' but I have read elsewhere that their projected production for this year is small, only growing to anywhere near capacity in 2019. I wanted to ask him about the mining license, but he only took a few questions. So overall, very positive, and very positive on MAPA, but a question for me on the license and how close we actually are to ramping up production. Comments?

I did. It was Mark Heyhoe who presented. When I asked about MAPA, he said ‘We will get it and it will be this quarter’. I’ll provide a full update tomorrow.

I'm going to need a little more background for that one, thanks

I'm heading to the Proactive Investors forum in London tonight. Will obviously ask about MAPA and future plans. Any other burning issues?

Are we expecting an announcement Monday? Or just hoping?

Hi, yes, if I make it there I will definitely ask about the MAPA certification, though I'm guessing he won't give a yes/no answer and will only say something like 'he sees no reason why it won't happen' or 'we've done everything we can to ensure it happens'. In any case, will be interesting to see what he has to say about next steps and production ramp up. I'll definitely report back here.

I've got a ticket, hoping to go

It's all a bit smoke and mirrors right now - nothing wrong with these announcements, per se, but obviously not the ones shareholders are awaiting. I see the share price drift as a buying opportunity, though we're finally balanced right now - any announced delay to MAPA and down she'll go.