Member Info for Jarv55

Https://www.offshore-energy.biz/uk-oil-gas-firm-eyes-start-of-drilling-ops-off-timor-leste-in-late-2024/

Pattison will be interesting to see what value is added if they find more gas in this drill bearing in mind they have already hit a 25m column, that is some step out and height difference on the image in the new presentation. now targeting a 100m column instead of 30m https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7001P_1-2023-10-10.pdf

Got to laugh at everyone trying to de-ramp and get in cheaper heard on the grapevine a few investors tried to offer Boil cash and they said no thanks, know the game here folks. Good update today and a new presentation. Things are starting to move finally which is good to see. https://x.com/Jarvy55/status/1712005940399026211?s=20

Baron are hoping to eventually sell the asset and then rinse and repeat the process, they are presently looking at other acquisitions, this is discussed in the Webinar.

The management have said they don’t need to raise yet and once the JV is signed the project will move quickly.

Risk is they can’t get a JV and will have to raise through either debt or a placing, there may be a mix of both. Other risks are where the gas will go and the costs for this. Baron prefer a FLNG to be built they may ship to Darwin. TL may want it going to Beaco where they plan to send the gas from another project called Sunrise. Baron are in talks with rig contractors at present and planning the drill, details can be read in the interims.

This is not a quick trade. View to hold for at least 12 to 18 months.

Lots to research here for yourselves far too much for me to put here, especially all the connections in Timor Leste to the Majors already there. But worth a look if you are interested in Gas plays. The Chuditch presentation i posted is a must watch Good luck researching for yourself. Bob keep the faith it will come good.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BOIL/uk-licence-p24788211-2-year-phase-a-extension-granted-kakf60kdhfz9n5n.html

Dunrobin UK Licence P2478 Update - 2 Year Phase A Extension Granted drill or drop decision to be made by July 2025. Aiming to complete more 3 d there and go back into talks with funders.

At the moment their priority is Chuditch , Eni own the licence next door to us in block P, Santos and Inpex own the Bayu project which is situated 100kms away to the East and is about to be decommissioned and turned into a CSS Hub that will be used by the Australians. Lots of different projects owned by the majors in the nearby areas.

Timore Leste rely on Gas and oil for income, their wealth fund has about 10 years of funds left, they desperately need to bring in more revenues. They have good relations with the Chinese and Australia. Recent collaboration with China to help fund infrastructure.

The management feel Boil is 14 times undervalued compared to peers. They are very tight lipped as under Nda’s at present.

Jambone I will give you a proper overview.

Baron has two assets.

Chuditch (Gas) in Timor Leste - 75% interest and operator.

Dunrobin (Oil and Gas) in the North Sea - 32% interest. Partners are Reobald and Upland Resources.

They also have applied for licences in the 33rd round in the North Sea, news expected on this by the end of the year.

Andy Butler has a lot of Geological experience in the Oil and Gas industry and is managing the Chuditch project from an office based in Timor Leste. Shell previously drilled Chuditch, and found a 25m column of gas. This has not been tested yet. Chuditch has 4 prospects. Their business model is prove up and sell assets.

Chuditch covers an area of approximately 3,571 km2, in water depths of 50-100m, Baron picked up the assets on the cheap with millions already having being spent on 2d seismic, they decided to complete 3d to get a better understanding of what they may have with improved images. The results gave an 89% estimated uplift in recoverable gas. They are planning to JV with a partner to drill another appraisal well as they think they have a lot more gas that has migrated up towards the top of the triangle in the diagram below, they are in talks with multiple parties from majors to utility companies and are aiming to drill one well to de-risk the area, the cost is approx. $24million but may go over this. At the moment they have to make a decision to drill by the end of this year, this may change and PSC may be extended. They have an excellent working relation with the TL government.

Please watch the Webinar and read the presentation for full details

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDgIbTm7n94&t=3476s

https://wp-baronoilplc-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/10/Timor-Leste-Webinar-October-2022-Final.pdf

They have approx. £4.6 mill in cash having had an oversubscribed placing. More details in the latest Interims below.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BOIL/interim-results-r5rjf8bj59qtt48.html

Ear Eye Aim they already have 4% if you listen to the interviews.

Good news today, next step ML that de-risks the project, then the binding agreement with MILF, now is the time to be accumulating before the institutions step in and start taking up the free float.

Book mark this post folks from Peggy

I think even the thickest on here know that "IF" this gets over the line it will be a long long time for serious results to appear, people make it sound like AA are sat waiting with the drills to get stuck in, this is not likely most are deployed and will need to be re-deployed.

Going to enjoy this.

Peggy is quiet today.

Rab was the seller then.

Https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:EU:16f477b7-bd1f-4e9d-a806-bf755dedb45d page 76

What does Anglo see in the licences? Anglo has been in contact with Arc for over a year now – with both sides playing hard ball on a deal. Anglo has even walked away from a period of exclusivity but has come back to the table and paid what we think is a very fair settlement for access to the licences. Anglo know these licences of old as they owned them pre-2000, and was at the forefront of the original re-interpretation of mineral deposit genesis. Anglo ranked its anomalies in order of importance. Arc operates in licences that contain the top nine of the 30 main targets identified in the former Anglo licences; Target 22 on the priority list was “Kalumbila”, which became the Sentinel mine. Anglo is keen to get back in and make quick progress on exploration and obviously has high hopes of success. What is Sentinel? The Sentinel deposit is a stratabound, sediment-hosted sulphide deposit hosted within a structurally thickened, northwest dipping carbonaceous meta-pelitic rock, known as “Kalumbila phyllite”. Copper mineralisation at Sentinel is generally limited to the strongly deformed phyllite unit. The ore-body strikes approximately east-west for 11 kilometres and mineralised horizons dip 20 – 30° in a northerly direction, generally parallel to the dominant foliation. The main copper-bearing mineral is chalcopyrite, which typically occurs within bedding/foliation parallel quartz-kyanite-carbonate mm-scale veinlets. The deposit is huge – the current Measured and Indicated resource estimate is 924Mt grading 0.45%Cu – enough for another 14-15 years at the current rate of production. In 2021 Sentinel produced 233kt copper in concentrate at a cash cost of $1.44/lb. Revenues were $2.0bn with an EBITDA of $1.2bn.

WHI View: We are very positive on Arc going forward. Zambian exploration is in capable well-funded hands and if there is a deposit in the licences then, in our opinion, Anglo has the technical expertise to find it. The geology is compelling with high-impact anomalies already identified. Subject to final due diligence we see Anglo moving quickly. Arc is well funded having signed this JV and having monetised its non-core assets in Slovakia and the DRC. It has a small licence in Botswana but will be left with choices on what to do with the cash in treasury – keep it for when it needs to contribute in Zambia or take on additional projects in Zambia, Botswana or wider Africa.

Arc is certainly a company to watch. We continue to see fair value at 6.0p, but that is before it receives the cash from Anglo and before any exploration results from the new JV. A discovery of size could see the market valuation react positively and rerate significantly if past precedent on other, similar, discoveries is replicated.

What deal has Arc struck with Anglo? The headline JV payments are staged but could ultimately lead to Anglo owning 70% of the licences, by investing $74m in exploration and paying Arc $14.5m. The licences will be held under a JV which will have an initial ownership of Arc 70% and Anglo 30%. The details of the staged payments are:

 Phase 1 – Anglo increases its ownership to 51% by spending $24m over 3 years and paying Arc $14.5m in instalments over the same period.

 Phase 2 – Anglo to acquire a further 9% (ownership 60%) for $20m expenditure over two years

 Phase 3 – Anglo to acquire a further 10% (ownership 70%) for $30m expenditure over two years

Are there already similar deals between juniors and majors? We highlight several deals between majors and juniors in the copper mining space. JVs seem to have similar spending levels to gain 60-70% of the deposit, but none has the upfront payment that Arc has negotiated; the earn-ins don’t solve the problem of dilution to existing shareholders.

 Greatland Gold (AIM:GGP) & Newcrest (ASX:NCM) has an earn-in at project level to 70% by spending $65m on exploration and to deliver a pre-feasibility study. A portal is currently being built in what is in our view on of the most significant copper-gold discoveries in Australia in decades.

 SolGold & major mining partners involved at TopCo level. BHP currently holds 13.6% with Newcrest at 13.5%. Both have an anti-dilution clause at 10%. BHP has spent ~$130m on its stake while Newcrest has spent ~$84m. The copper-gold porphyries in Ecuador represent a major new porphyry belt in the Andes.

 In Zambia, Midnight Sun (TSXV:MMA) has partnered with Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) on the Solwezi Licences. The agreement will see Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) pay up to $51m in exploration expenses and cash to earn 75% in the Solwezi licences next to Kansanshi held by Midnight Sun – but crucially there is no upfront payment for Midnight Sun.

Arc Minerals

Reflections on the recent Anglo American JV – a very positive move

Arc has recently signed an agreement with Anglo American (LSE:AAL, Market Cap $45bn) on a JV for its highly prospective Zambian licences (subject to final due diligence). The deal sees (3) main staged payments of up to $74m in the ground and $14.5m to Arc (by end of stage 1) and significantly leaving Arc with a 30% stake in the project. On a detailed reflection over the deal we want to reiterate how positive we see this is for Arc: i) Arc could never have raised this sort of capital to bring experienced, well-funded exploration to its licences on its own – the dilution to Arc shareholders would have been eye-watering; ii) Arc gets a prepayment upfront for its share - it gets some blue sky cash from Anglo who must rate these licences very highly and; iii) by the end of the period Anglo will either have discovered an “Anglo-sized” deposit, will have found something smaller which may come back to Arc or will have exhausted the exploration in the block. Obviously exploration is binary – you find something or you don’t - but having reviewed the geochemical and lithological data over the licences and seen its similarity with the Sentinel (FQM-operated, large copper producer just to the east) and know that Arc are excited by the new airborne geophysics we rate these licenses highly. If a discovery is made we could see a fair value uplift in line with the recent history of Greatland Gold and SolGold (AIM:GGP, LSE:SOLG) on a multiple of its current market valuation. Anglo seems to want to get exploring quickly and we await the results of what could be high-impact drilling over currently outlined anomalies by the end of year.

What is Arc looking for? Arc is exploring for large sediment-hosted copper (–cobalt) deposits in the Zambian Copperbelt. This is an extremely important copper mining area and it also holds more than half of the world’s cobalt resources (mostly in the DRC). The belt is also home to many so-called “Tier 1” deposits; deposits that provide economies of scale and low cost production and considerable cash flow to some of the largest copper mining companies in the world – and are company-making if found by juniors. Of specific interest to Arc are the large tonnage copper deposits in the “Western Domes Region” discovered and brought into production within the last 20 years (Kansanshi, Lumwana and Sentinel). This is a major new exploration district, as a fuller understanding on the timing of mineralisation, host rock lithology and the structural controls on the deposits at the contact of the basement and overlying Roan sediments has been gained since the start of this century.

Poor Peggy is going to be out of a job next week.

Have a feeling if anyone is short here they are going be in a lot of pain next week. Good luck to all the longs who have had the patience to wait.

Hopefully wrapping up the deal so we can finally get drilling. Expect lots of press when its done.

The smarter traders have started seeing value buying https://x.com/cisco_kid786/status/1710239866951188503?s=20