gpor23 Mar 2012 22:13
The main reason to buy shares in offices landlord Great Portland Estates is its focus on London's West End. Property depends on finance, and currently the West End has better access to bank debt and the equity of investment funds than anywhere else in Europe. Which means that, in a climate of tight finance, Great Portland is one of the few real-estate investment trusts likely to generate meaningful growth over the next half decade.
Value investors may wince at Great Portland's meagre yield. But the company doesn't just collect rent, it also has a strong track record as a developer, with four office blocks under construction and a further 18 projects in the pipeline. That means capital gains should form a substantial part of investment returns.
Moreover, there's value in the current share price, after a disappointing year for shareholders. The company's stock-market value has risen just 3 per cent over the past 12 months, compared with 18 per cent for its net asset value (NAV). So the shares now trade on a 5 per cent discount to NAV, according to brokerage Jefferies, whereas shares in the other two listed West End landlords, Derwent London and Shaftesbury, trade on premiums of 6 and 12 per cent respectively.
Great Portland's relative underperformance may reflect its exposure to markets outside the West End - it has a few properties in the City and Southwark. But these only make up a fifth of its portfolio. And investors' worries about City rents look overcooked: the banks may be making staff redundant, but it doesn't appear to be affecting City employment in aggregate. The number of jobs in financial and business services rose by 88,000 during the final quarter of 2011, according to official figures - the fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Capital Economics, a consultancy specialising in bearish views, admits its "recent concerns that Central London office rental values could start to fall towards the end of this year may not be warranted".