Member Info for jange

Broker price forcast by gecr........................ Valuation We continue to believe a core valuation of 3x Enterprise Value/EBITDA - 207p per share on our 2013E numbers - remains more than sufficiently conservative. This is before taking any account of Avesco’s interest in an on-going US litigation case - for which we attribute a further 33p per share.

Forecasts We retain our full-year forecasts, though move our year-end net debt figure up from £24 million to £27 million as a result of some accelerated capital spending. We also introduce forecasts for next year – these anticipating underlying growth and some major events mitigating significantly, but not wholly, the ‘big ticket’ event benefits of this year.

Trading Avesco noted that it has been “extremely busy”, with its work in connection with the Paralympic Games in London and the 2012 Olympics in July and August particularly “substantial”. Looking further ahead, the company notes “while 2012/13 as an „odd year‟ will not have stand-out events as big for us as those in and around London in 2012, we do expect to benefit substantially from a number of other major events”.

Financials Avesco has announced an underlying pre-tax profit of £1.56 million for its third quarter, taking the nine month figure to £2.95 million and basic earnings per share for the nine months to 11.0p – this up from 7.9p for the comparative prior year period.

Avesco Group, the provider of services to the international corporate presentation, entertainment and broadcast markets, has announced results for the three and nine months ended 30th June 2012 which continue to bear out its start of the year confidence that 2012 could be one of the biggest and most rewarding in the company’s history. With the company believing its outlook “has never been better”, the rating being attributed by the stock market continues to look materially too low.

TMT will act as the exclusive consultant to the fund’s investment manager. The fund is conditional, inter alia, on the fund raising a minimum of $30 million. TMT’s remuneration will be 75% of the investment manager’s fees related to the management of the fund. The investment manager will receive an annual fee of 2% per annum of the fund’s net asset value and a performance fee of 20%. Given that the fund would be larger than TMT, the company’s co-investment right would increase the investment opportunities for TMT as well as providing recurring revenue for the company. In addition, we believe that the agreement will not create any conflicts between TMT and the fund.

Takeover Potential TMT may purchase additional shares for an aggregate consideration of between $100,000 and $200,000. The option may be exercised after the first anniversary of the transaction (24th October 2013). The most successful comparable web service is Pinterest, which is currently a top 5 social networking site, with 1.27% of the global market share in terms of users. (www.dreamgrow.com). We believe that the most likely exit route here would be via a takeover from one of the bigger players in the market, such as Pinterest.

Picture-perfect Investment Incorporated in the British Virgin Islands in July 2012, Favim has developed an innovative system that automatically identifies unique and inspirational pictures which have been uploaded by users onto their personal galleries on favim.com. We see this investment in Favim as a further step in diversifying and reinforcing its presence in the high-growth, internet-based market.

In a move to diversity and reinforce its presence in the high-growth, internet-based market, TMT Investments has acquired a 20% stake in Favim Holdings, the online photo sharing and collecting service business, for $300,000. The venture capitalist also revealed that it will assist the investment manager of a newly proposed unquoted TMT fund. With the shares up 23% since we initiated coverage in February this year, we continue to believe that the company has the long-term potential to generate an attractive rate of return for shareholders.

SacOil Holdings is an independent African upstream oil and gas business. It has been predicted that by 2020 Africa will account for 20% of world oil production. In recent years there has been a scramble for African oil and gas licences following some sensational discoveries. SacOil is led by a Board that has an enviable network in the continent and that are used to doing business in Africa coupled with a real depth of experience in the oil and gas industry. The team is continuously evaluating and assessing acquisition opportunities to move closer to booking reserves, production and cash flow generation. SacOil offers an exciting combination of high impact exploration in Block III plus the real possibility of early production from Nigeria.

Pre-tax profit is forecast to grow by 16.3% to £11.4 million in 2013, assuming 4imprint hits analyst assumptions of £9.8 million in 2012. This equates to 26.2p earnings per share for 2013 and puts the stock on a PEG (price/earnings to growth) ratio of 0.88 - a figure below 1.00 is generally deemed cheap based on the rate of predicted earnings growth. Key points Cash generative Strong balance sheet Share price momentum

The £94 million cap periodically sends a range of customised samples to clients which helps stimulate new orders and strong levels of customer retention. It is one of the few national players in the US and can supply an extensive range of products, with customised artwork, in scalable quantities at short notice. An increasing amount of 4imprint's own marketing activities are going online. Overall marketing spend amounts to a fifth of revenue. Just under a tenth of group sales comes from the UK operations. A pension deficit is no longer a big worry for investors, thanks to February's sale of its promotions business Brand Addition for £18.6 million, with a further £1.3 million deferred for 12 months. The company has set aside £11.4m from the disposal to pump into the pension deficit, estimated at £27 million (before the cash injection). This money is held in escrow and separate to the £10.3 million forecast year-end net cash position, which will be topped up in future by further free cashflow. A forecast 16.1p dividend per share for 2013 puts the stock on a prospective 4.5% yield.

Last week's trading update showed 12% revenue gains in the third quarter. Year-to-date has seen 14% sales growth but a 2% drop in average order value. We do not see this as a negative indicator. The US presidential elections have distracted corporates as they were unsure whether there would be dramatic changes in economic policy. Now there is clarity over the presidency, following confirmation Barack Obama will have a second term in office, we believe corporates will regain focus. This could translate in higher levels of promotional spending.

A better-than-expected trading update (7 November), a strong balance sheet, excellent levels of cash generation, a handsome dividend yield and attractive share price momentum support a 'buy' rating on media small cap 4imprint (FOUR). Even after a 50% gain this year, we see further upside. The promotional products specialist is on a roll and primed to benefit from any economic recovery in the USA, its biggest operating region. It has a mere 2% estimated market share, so there is lots of scope for future growth. A supplier of branded items such as hats, pens, bags and clothes used as promotional items, 4imprint's revenues have doubled in the past five years at its US direct marketing business, which accounts for 92% of group sales. This equates to a compound annual growth rate of 15%.

Valuation We are forecasting underlying pre-tax profits of £1.1 million on revenues of £15 million for the current financial year. We expect to see the proportion of sales of digital learning products increase even further and net debt to reduce to around £1.8 million. Given the benefits that have been seen from promoting its digital product suite and the potential market from overseas expansion, we believe a 2014 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7 times is appropriate. Accordingly, we have derived a 30.1p target price......but as always dyor gl all

Development in the world economy there has been a gradual pick-up in global activity. According to provisional estimates from the European Central Bank, quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the OECD area grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2012, up from 0.3% in the previous quarter. Consequently, with revenue at ILX Group broadly driven by the level of global economic activity, we are encouraged by what may lie ahead.

Financials For the 12-months ended 31st March 2012, ILX Group revealed an adjusted pre-tax profit of £0.96 million (FY2011: £1.54) – which is slightly higher than our revised forecast of £0.75 million – on revenue of £13.47 million (FY2011: £12.89 million). Profits were lower than a year earlier mainly due to increased overhead costs relating to marketing and international sales, and the gross profit margin remained at around the 55% mark. The adjusted EPS figure was 2.49p (FY2011: 4.39p), which is higher than our forecast of 2.0p.

ILX Group has announced full-year adjusted pre-tax profits which are slightly better than our revised forecasts. The AIM-quoted provider of e-learning software and consulting services added that demand for project and programme management skills and knowledge remains high, even in the current climate, and is expected to increase. While the decision to suspend paying a dividend has taken its toll on the share price, we believe that the strategy to focus on digital learning and developing the business in overseas markets remains the right one.

There was a net £1.7 million cash outflow from operating activities – though this was more than entirely due to a net negative £2.3 million working capital movement. The company ended the period with net debt of £8.5 million, up from £6.1 million six months earlier – though net current assets stood at £4.3 million, compared to a net liabilities position of £2.4 million at the end of 2010 as the company renewed bank facilities in March. With also strong underlying cash flow cover of interest costs and net cash receipts of £0.8 million to be factored in following the recent sale of the company’s payroll processing business in Indonesia, the balance sheet continues to look solid enough – this with the stated net current assets balance including a £3 million provision as a current best estimate of potential retrospective claims in Germany. Looking forward, the company admits “the financial impact of the disruption to our German operations during the first half of the year has been greater and lasted longer than originally anticipated” and although a materially improved performance in the second half is anticipated, “with Germany accounting for approximately 40% of group Net Fee Income and softer market conditions in the UK, the growth generated from our Asian and Chilean operations is not sufficient to offset this short-term deficit within our largest market. As a consequence expect full year profits before exceptional provision to be lower than current market forecasts”.

Empresaria noted the financial impact of a legal ruling relating to certain collective labour agreements and requiring changes to pay tariffs for temporary workers in Germany “amounted to £1.7 million in lost net fee income and unplanned legal costs in the period”. The impact on the company’s overall result for the six months is evident in total adjusted pre-tax profit coming in at £1.2 million, down from £2.6 million in the comparative prior year period, with earnings per share totalling 0.9p, down from 1.9p. Increased Net Fee Income from the company’s ‘Rest of the World’ and UK operations meant overall Net Fee Income was held at £22.4 million - on total group revenue which edged higher to £105.2 million, from £104.4 million.