dp7 Jun 2013 23:47
E-mail was supposed to herald the beginning of the end for post, but the growth being forecast for Deutsche Post DHL (DE:DPW) tells a different story. We think the shares' recent strong run will continue as the group emerges leaner and more profitable from a multiyear restructuring. Analysts now expect earnings to grow at double digits for the next two years, which leaves the shares looking too cheap compared with peers - add in a chunky dividend yield, too, and we rate them a long-term buy.
First-quarter results for 2013 easily beat analysts' expectations in the mail operations, which in 2012 were responsible for a quarter of revenues and just over a third of operating profits. Parcel delivery was the standout performer with volumes up 6.4 per cent and revenues 7 per cent ahead on the prior period, as an online shopping boom means over three million parcels are now delivered every day. Letter delivery rose 1.4 per cent, which was impressive against the backdrop of a mail market in structural decline of between 2-4 per cent every year.
This encouraging start led chief executive Frank Appel to reiterate that the mail operations can maintain a stable performance, with revenues and operating profit at around the €14bn and €1bn mark, respectively, for the foreseeable future. In fact, for 2013 he has pencilled in profits of €1.1-€1.2bn, underpinning group operating profits in the range of €2.7-€2.95bn. Analysts at JPMorgan Cazenove recently upgraded forecasts to €2.93bn.
Flat or slightly better results at Deutsche Post may sound boring, but that is exactly what is required. The mail operation holds a dominant position in the economic engine room of Europe, and recently negotiated a 2.8 per cent regulated price increase, the first for 15 years. Angry unions have also been mollified by a two-year pay deal, with a 3.1 per cent increase this August, followed by 2.6 per cent next year, removing the threat of costly strike action.