Member Info for janebolacha

Some comment from Seeking Alpha a few days ago in advance of the MGM results:

"MGM Resorts: Undervalued Too Long, It Needs To Spin Off Its Digital Unit To Build Real Value"

"BetMGM holds an 11% share in the U.S. sports betting market, trailing FanDuel (35%) and DraftKings (32%).

(Need to) consider a renewed offer for Entain's share as part of a broader digital spinoff to enhance shareholder value."

"Despite the annual revenue growth and spotty earnings performance through some quarters, MGM's bull case remains strong with a light shining on its basic business. However, the source of positive sentiment among those analysts who have buy recommendations is mostly due to its footprint in the online sector with the success of its BetMGM site. It's not easy in a sector where the two leaders command nearly 70% of the total revenue in locked-in positions."

"BetMGM's 2024 booked a loss of ($244m) vs. the prior year's loss of ($827m), a reduction of nearly 75%. Management's guidance for this year is positive, reaching an estimated $500m in EBITDA.

The U.S. online sports betting sector reached $14.2b in revenue in 2024, continuing its record of double-digit YoY growth across the board, with a higher average hold of 9% and growth both in iGaming and poker. That amounts to total online revenue for the year of over $2b for BetMGM. If we extrapolate its 11% current share of the market to our revised estimate of market revenue growth to $40b by 2030 and BetMGM's share grows by 2% over the next five years (assuming attrition of marginal sites), BetMGM would have near to a $5b business. It could be a real buy if spun off as a pure play."

"However, if Entain digs in with another rejection this year, then another option would seem available. That would be a spin-off of BetMGM in which both companies own 50% of the controlling shares, which would be followed by an IPO for 45% of the newco as a pure play in online gaming.

If that can be managed, then envision what a pure play in online betting starting with $5b in revenue of BetMGM, and much sunk cost behind it, could be valued against other pure play giants like DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4755532-mgm-resorts-undervalued-it-needs-to-spin-off-digital-unit-to-build-value

Thank you, Pat, very kind of you.

I hope your results come through as clear. You are right, colonoscopy is an unpleasant procedure and I'd imagine that a blood test would be welcomed with open arms.

Best wishes, Jane.

I asked my daughter about this. She is presently in remission from colon cancer. She wrote:

"In my case, Dr. xxxxxxxx first suspected colon cancer because of the blood in my stool. She then ordered blood tests, including tumor markers like CEA.

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is a protein usually found at very low levels in adults. Higher levels can indicate certain cancers, including colorectal cancer, but also some non-cancerous conditions. That’s why the CEA test is commonly used for colorectal cancer detection.

The article you mentioned talks about DNA screening through blood tests to detect colorectal cancer (even in early stages) and high-risk polyps with great accuracy. This kind of advancement could make diagnosis much earlier and easier compared to traditional methods. "

How can he lay claim to a "proven long-term strategy" and a "robust performance" when sales are turning negative and profits are falling, despite the spending spree?

Article from 'Seeking Alpha'

" JD Sports Fashion's global expansion, particularly in North America, positions it for continued growth, supported by strategic acquisitions and strong partnerships with brands like Nike and Adidas.

Despite recent contractions in free cash flow and balance sheet risks, JD Sports is undervalued, with a PS ratio suggesting potential market cap growth of ~35% in 18 months.

Inflation and discretionary spending risks loom, but JD Sports' market position and focus on affordable goods support a bullish outlook, making it a promising investment at its current valuation.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4718936-jd-sports-fashion-is-undervalued-amid-success-in-north-america?mailingid=36627871&messageid=must_reads&serial=36627871.44656&source=email_must_reads&utm_campaign=Must+Reads+recurring+2024-09-04&utm_content=seeking_alpha&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=must_reads

Chemring and Qinetiq also both by c. 4%.

Goldman raises their TP to 1398p today.

Dick's Sporting Goods earnings due Thursday. After Footlocker's miss, a bad outcome from DKS could knock JD Sports once again.

HTTps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/the-british-king-of-trainers-takes-on-the-land-of-sneakers-9b0dbbf7?mod=hp_lead_pos8

(Needs subscription)

"This is just getting started.."

It may be so that "this is just getting started". Voleon have about $8bn in assets, have been around for more than 15 years, now use AI to identify opportunities. They seem tenacious, coming back repeatedly to attack their targets, as I found with one Spanish company they shorted. Usually, they start off with 0.5% or so, here their AI seems to be telling them to really go for it with JD, that is if it really is the case that they took a 1.8% position in one day, something that seems puzzling. Serious guys, not some backroom joint in Hackney.

Https://whalewisdom.com/short_position/holder/voleon-capital-management-lp

Moving to NY, as so many companies are already doing, would be the sensible thing to do rather than being stuck on this now crap provincial backwater.

Seeking alpha gives PER of 12.4 for Dick's and 21 for Foot Locker, btw. Nike 28.8. JD at 8.2?

In the US, Dick's Sporting Goods is at a 5-year high, Foot Locker is bobbing around a 6-month high, admittedly Nike is down about 15% from its September shock announcement that took down JD initially. JD have very recently confirmed a PBT of GBP 915m-935m which would now be a PER, according to Stockopedia, of only 8.2. Now I do appreciate the London market is utterly crap but why there has been a 40% fall in the SP beats me.

"A Norwegian-based alternative investment fund has bought a 5.3 per cent stake in the Cheltenham-based retailer, according to regulatory filings. It is understood that First Seagull considers Superdry to be ripe for a bid after a series of profit warnings over the past year drove down its share price. Sycamore Partners, an American private equity company, and Authentic Brands Group, which owns Ted Baker and Forever 21, are said to have Superdry on their radars."çç

(from The Times article)

Liam, it may be a dead brand on the UK high street but it obviously can't be a dead brand overseas, otherwise investors, particularly no-slouches Asian investors, would not have paid what they have for the IP in their respective territories.

The news prompted an immediate jump in Superdry shares of about a fifth and they closed up 7.7 per cent, or 1½p, at 21¼p last night. Sources suggested that the value of Superdry owned by a brand management company would be about £400 million to £600 million, compared with its present market cap of about £21 million. At their peak in early 2018 the company’s shares were just shy of £20, giving it a valuation above £1.7 billion.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hedge-fund-builds-stake-in-superdry-ppf03xxbj

99m shares.

"The new Nike ‘super shoe’ that was worn to shatter the world marathon record has sold out within minutes of going on sale, sparking online auctions of almost £600 for a pair.

Kenya’s Kelvin Kiptum used the new ‘Alphafly 3’ shoe to become the first man under 2hr 1min in an official race at the Chicago Marathon in October and, having gone on general sale only on Thursday morning for £284.99, the entire supply was bought up in just two minutes.

That in turn has prompted online traders to advertise the product at even more eye-watering prices. One seller has them listed on ebay at a ‘buy it now’ price of £589."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/athletics/2024/01/04/nike-super-shoes-flood-resale-sites-600-pounds-sold-out/

Nike, which has been given a $134 price target by Bernstein, is the firm's top pick for the next six months. Analysts said "December's guidance cut creates some opportunity for a short-term beat. In addition, "the market overreacted in slashing FY25 numbers," they wrote. "We expect to see positive revisions through the next few months as Fall 2024 growth looks better than expected. Meanwhile, the multi-year margin story is still intact, and we model ~20% EPS growth over the next 3 years."

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nike-a-top-pick-at-bernstein-but-adidas-cut-on-elevated-consensus-432SI-3267577

Taking account of the cash, the effective MC is way less than 5.5bn. This SP is crazy.