Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Copied from Investor321123 ADVFN post...
Here's a lengthy slide deck I published a week ago on Burford:
https://twitter.com/investor321123/status/1640777086775463936?s=20
Here's a post-summary-judgement update I published today:
'https://twitter.com/investor321123/status/1643745198277795840?s=20' target='window'>https://twitter.com/investor321123/status/1643745198277795840?s=20
I think it's going to go up a lot.
I gave a special shout-out to Portia Patel from Canaccord on the last page - I know she is adored across this forum for her insights and unwavering loyalty to her client LCM
Try this for a more informative read. Q7 answers AceofSpades troll attempt quite nicely ..
https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/betting-on-burford
But the Southern District of New York is not in Argentina. It’s in New York. And New York is in the United States. If you got a speeding ticket in say, the Netherlands, you might simply not pay that speeding ticket and never return to the Netherlands. Stroopwafels aren’t that great, anyway. In the same vein, and as far as I know, Argentina isn’t planning on visiting the United States. It would be a tectonic and logistical nightmare.
However, Argentina does have assets within the U.S.’s reach. Argentina has things like cash deposits in U.S. banks and ADSs which trade on American exchanges and these things are mostly fair game when it comes to the reach of U.S. courts.
It hasn't yet, but you'd know that if you were keeping up with events. The quantum has yet to be decided. Once it has expect Argentina to then attempt to reach a settlement with Burford for a reduced amount. If Argentina wish to appeal, they can, but must put up a substantial bond. If Argentina don't put up the bond then Preska's judgement can be enforced. I've Burford can take Argentina's assets whether that be dollars deposited in foreign banks, ships, aircraft, oil etc. Argentina doesn't need to pay cash, although that would be better for both sides
Yes, I wish I had traded RBGP and got out near the top, I didn't and are still there, underwater. It went to 168p, you never predicted that. I see uncertainty but still think I've bought a lot of future earnings for a 60p ish average. Only the future will determine who was right.
Anyway let's discuss Burford
No doubt alive and kicking and nlused to mark up posts. When I posted credibility, I should also of put authenticity. But let's move on. Don't let him wind you up.
It's spoiling what should be a good moment for us all, against a back drop of gloom everywhere else.
Enjoying what FFC?
The judgement and the share price increase? Of course and I believe it will have a lot further to go. Read RedIrishes post on ADVFN about the further catalysts; formal settlement with Argentina, agreement with SEC of treatment of fair value and release of (hopefully higher rated) accounts. Then release of consecutive quarters of increasing cash collections from the historic build up of ever increasing deployments and delay in the courts due to covid. Should these happen then the sky high analyst valuations may materialise, should they not then clearly we won't.
The ongoing annoyance of the fly in the room you can't swat? I've made my thoughts on this clear in the past and thier credibility, but would rather discussion remain on the pros and cons of Burford, especially at this pivotal time.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/09m5y8rs2tmzfi9/burford%20investment%20thesis%20%28full%20deck%29.pdf?dl=0
I've posted this again as I'm sure a lot have missed this recently published slide deck. It's from late March this year, and while so fresh, we now know the judgement in the YPF cases, even if not the exact quantum. In the author's bull case they believe the shares to have a value of $57! Now less than $12!! The slides are perhaps the most comprehensive yet and should make interesting reading for those both new to Burford as well as those more familiar with Burford and litigation funding.
Admittedly, this analyst thinks only $55...
https://traviswiedower.com/2021/04/20/burford-capital-is-by-far-the-most-undervalued-company-i-know-of/#more-2274
Starresnoff.. Only $25? This analysist thinks up to $59....
https://www.dropbox.com/s/09m5y8rs2tmzfi9/burford%20investment%20thesis%20%28full%20deck%29.pdf?dl=0
Nor mine, as per my 6.80 top up a few months ago and my 9.46 top-up yesterday! I'm as confident as can be though that both will look great in the years ahead. I just wish I had the balls to have sold some other holdings and topped up at 5. Hindsight eh?
This is my largest position by some margin. I think Burford answered all points raised by MW and showed he was poorly researched and that it was really an attempt at market manipulation. He was possibly right about the CEOs wife being CFO, that has since been amended. Regarding the accounting, my understanding is that the SEC actually want cases marking up to represent likely final value as currently represented in accounts mainly at cost which is too conservative and doesn't give an accurate representation as to their assets worth. This is the opposite to what MW proposed should happen. Do I think it's over? I'd hope so, and think Burford have realistically done all they could to address the critique (if that is what it can be called). However due to the SEC stance on accounting it can't be ruled out that another chancer in the future won't play the same trick and attempt to sow fear and diminish confidence in the value of assets held. Due to the specialist nature of the assets and the required confidentiality we must place a lot of trust in the management. Such a situation is easy pickings for a short attack.
You decide. Burford compiled an extensive rebuttal and made amends to their governance structure. Google the rebuttal and decide for yourself. Research what the SEC are requesting of Burford's accounting and see how that aligns with MW's critique. Again you decide. I know what my conclusions were.