Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Https://youtu.be/q9KfGoexY0c
Not had chance to view yet but previous thesis ha e been worthy of attention
All I can fin is a Bloomberg article from 16/08 that reads similar but doesn't make reference to YPF judgment.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/milei-vows-to-pay-argentina-s-debt-while-shuttering-central-bank?leadSource=uverify%20wall
Well-done on the sell pre results. It's a tricky one as as someone who has seen all the games played over the years you'd expect more games to be played while we wait. Should positive news arrive in that time, you don't want to be out! I've still got all my main holding but let my small trading pot go early this morning. Far from optimal timing but heyho. ATB
On the title theme...while slightly old the thesis is still pertinent.
Burford Capital is a compounding machine, and the investment opportunity can be best described as “growth at unreasonably cheap price”.
http://caro-kann-capital.com/pdf/2018_12_20_Burford_Caro-Kann_Capital_LLC_Artem_Fokin.pdf
Poindexter.. My thoughts are that it's just usual BUR volatility/price manipulation. I'm certainly no expert, but for what's it's worth I think recent developments should be positive. Should more informed posters wish to correct my musing, it would be appreciated.
My understanding is that the US effectively can determine what happens with thier currency. Should Argentina adopt the dollar, any transactions in dollars (with signed parties) can be legally sanctioned at the request of the US. This will mean Burford will have greater access to any claim amount, via further courts. Greater importance will also be ascribed to international trade and monetising their vast resources. To do this they will need outside investment to realise this potential and they'll only attract it if investors can have confidence. An unknown to me is Milei's desire for Eastern investment. One would think that by announcing a desire to dollarize he aspired to lean more towards the west, but then that could be forced due to the people's current reliance on dollars for larger transactions. I mention this as I believe the US's desire to steer Argentina within their sphere of influence, and away from China/Russia shouldn't be underestimated and is likely to play a part in the justice delivered. I know it shouldn't but politics and power transcends all.
TWT... I plan to top up more BUR but probably not for a couple of weeks. I was annoyed at myself only last week for letting them go at 10.60 but it now looks a shrewd move, for the moment at least!
Https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=BUR.L
If you'd followed each of thier buy/sell signals since the 28th Feb this year, an initial stake of £100 would now be worth £44. And that's without accounting for transaction charges! Not the best of results is it?
While I scoff at British Bulls, I do think the uptrend may have reversed. The US has been poor last few days with reasonable volume. Nonetheless I'm going to hold, having not optimised the timing of my sell of my trading pot. I don't want to risk being out on any news or updates.
It's circa 35% of any payment made for both the YPF cases that would be attributable to Burford. Thus, should a 12b payment be made, we would benefit to the tune of c. 4.2b. An extreme level of upside considering the EV and MCAP
That was my thought now that 3 day trial over. Sold my small trading pot with plan to buy them back in readiness of written submissions becoming public and results. Hopefully will be able to pick up some free shares. Looking like FFC has jinxed the market currently and assisted me with my trade!
It was 6b plus interest so likely a little more than you calculate, but even if our share is only 2.1, that's our MCAP alone. The rest of the portfolio would be free!
It looks as if Argentina would only agree to settle at this if Bur were to be awarded significantly more but looking at the arguments put forward, I can't see anything but a win on both questions for BUR (I'm not a lawyer, nevermind an Argentine/New York lawyer so this means nothing). That's the 17.4b award with 6b attributable to ourselves. A 6b agreed settlement would be effectively a 66% discount to Argentina. Surely this could only be acceptable to BUR if payment was almost immediate?