Member Info for jamesjohn

Just to clarify, my last post was only the first sentence, beginning 'Thanks Dave', ending 'moves into May'

This was my last post in April:

Thanks Dave....We have missed the March deadline, but the board approvals still has time. I will start to question, if we are told it moves into May.
It wont shock you if I say I have sold. I've decided I will wait for the two senior banks, (TDB and AFC) to sign this off.
I believe there will be very little trouble getting the current government to agree and I'm not concerned about the local investor/off-take etc. The most important to me is the two mentioned banks. I know it will mean I miss out out on the bigger profits, but I am fed up with the constant missed deadlines. I've been a follower of this since Oct 2019, and for me this has gone on far too long. If the banks sign I will be in like a shot, but as yet I'm not convinced.

I don't pretend to understand the mechanics of a mine, but considering the only new equipment scheduled to arrive before July is the trucks and drills, I would think if they had enough stock pilled then they should be already cash flow positive or at least very close, but I may be wrong. They should still inform us of the delivery schedule as per the presentation, This would help shareholders keep track of their progress.

Many people keep mentioning the Atlas conversion. This to me is not a concern, at least not in the short term. What is a concern is the mining plan. If there is one thing I have learnt over the years of investing, it is not what the management says, it is what they don't say. So far they haven't mentioned the delivery of the Aramine Face Drilling equipment. According to the last presentation this was due to arrive in April, it is now June. This could point towards a delay to the predicted positive cash flow in July. The previous presentation stated delivery times would be a risk factor. It is very important that they reach positive cash flow by July, as finances are tight. In my view the management need to update shareholders on equipment delivery/cash flow.

Thanks Dave....We have missed the March deadline, but the board approvals still has time. I will start to question, if we are told it moves into May.

For what it is worth I do believe we will have this signed-off shortly, however there are two concerns.
1) Even if the banks etc agree to complete the signatures by tomorrow, Kefi will probably still need to do a placing. Harry did say that once agreement has been reached the government will be required to approve everything and then shortly after that the money will be released. So that means a few weeks at least, so sometime in May. Based on previous placings and on the last placing in mid November, Ive done a very rough calculation, money may be needed by mid- April. This is not a huge concern if we can get this signed off.
2) The second is more of a problem. Not many people are talking about the up-coming election on 05 June. If we get too close to this I'm worried that the banks etc will decide to wait until the elections are over before wanting to commit, for obvious reasons.
I do not want this to go beyond the elections, any thoughts?

For me Atlas is no longer a big problem, (only a small one). I'd be ok if they did a placing and be done with.
To be more accurate they owe Atlas £4.4/$6.1 mil, (they have converted 2 tranches of $500k). There is also the possibility they may conclude the re-finance once the mine is cash flow +.
The most important part now is setting up the new mining plan on time. Later on they may do more drilling to improve the jorc, which going by the historical jorc will improve the value of the mine. If they achieve this on time then this in my view is a decent investment, but I suppose it is still a big if.

Pecten... Yes you're right, if Atlas convert we can't pay it off.
I have mentioned this many times before. I said I would prefer them to do a placing and remove the doubt. It s the same thing, still dilution.
They appear to be allowing Atlas to convert, which will dilute, but it seems that Atlas for the moment have stopped. For general cash requirements we should be ok until we are cash flow positive.

Pecten... They also said no more placings, not just for capex, unless something out of the blue, ie not in the plan.

I thought the meeting went well . I didn't understand all the detail that CH mentioned, but I imagine some investors will gain from it. Sounds as though they have plenty of mining equipment which is of some financial value and more to arrive. They mentioned no more placings. I imagine this was based on the assumption that the plan goes well and we achieve cash flow positive by July. I myself would prefer them to do one big placing and remove Atlas, (only tranche 1 that is), but maybe they are confident of paying them back through cash flow. I think they mentioned interest to Atlas was included in the plan, will have to re-run the video.

Based on the assumption that timelines are met, and putting Atlas aside for the moment, I would guess, ( guess being the operative word), that we may not need any placings.
1) We are told that we are producing, albeit small, (no figures given)
2) We may have circa £0.5 - 1 mil left from the last placing if you deduct £3 mil for the cost of the equipment.
It is also possible that all the money used for buying the equipment may not be required immediately.
3) From the mining plan we should be cash flow positive from July.
So looking at this we could be ok! If someone with more knowledge than myself would like to correct me, I'm willing to learn.

TBTT....Thanks again for your response!
The only concern I have is that you are making assumptions, unless I'm still not understanding it correctly. For example you are always assuming that the share price is falling. I would imagine if we receive some very good news. the share price will rise rapidly and therefore any conversion has less affect on dilution. Also you have made the assumption we will not be able to pay back the loan. If we achieve cash flow positive we could start paying it back, also what about doing a placing and raising the cash that way, which is what I said in my previous post.

TBTT....
Thanks by the way for responding to my post.
However I still don't follow how the Atlas conversion works, your explanation doesn't seem to explain clearly. If you were to look at my previous post. Let us say for argument sake that Atlas do not convert and instead we raise circa £4 mil and then pay Atlas off. This would mean we would need to issue approx 4 billion shares and therefore it would result in the same mkt cap as I previously stated ie. £26 mil which still seems a good investment based on what I said previously about the jorc.
I do agree it is probably better to wait until Atlas is sorted, but unless my numbers are incorrect then it doesn't appear to be a major problem considering we are so close to full production. Obviously if we don't get to full production then that is going to be a major problem.

If you are to base this purely on the Atlas arrangement, which I agree is not great, why not just assume that Atlas do convert completely, then look at the figures as an investment.
I will not pretend I understand the whole finance agreement with Atlas, but based on previous conversions it would suggest that approx 3.7 billion shares would be issued. This gives us approx 26 billion shares in issue, and therefore a mkt cap of circa 26 mil as of today.

If we then look at the value of the BP mine from the recent jorc, not including the historical jorc and not including the Zim diamond mine then we are looking at 70/100 mil, (remembering that we now own 100% not 80% of BP). This is in my view a good investment based on the fact that we may be weeks away from full production, depending on the new plan to be announced this week. If I'm wrong on these facts I'm very happy to be corrected. I have to go out now, but I'll check-in after the football or tomorrow to see any feedback.

Maybe AP doesn't want to sign the JV just yet. He may want to complete the BP mine first, it is possibly just weeks away from completion.
If he were to sign the JV now, he would be required to begin straightaway.

You are still moving away from the original statement . I am not going to continue to debate this with you.

I'm not suggesting people should invest. You are trying to turn the tables . The statement was based the constant negative comments which were not based on facts., and there was no evidence to prove this.

To be fair, I've heard negative comments such as,(going bust/placings and doubt there is any copper in the mine), to name a few.
Despite the cash in the bank and any revenue generated. These negative comments are hardly based on facts.

gkb.... If you were to take your money and invest it in a stock in which you do trust, surely you would have a better chance of recovery than in a stock and a BOD that you clearly have no more faith in. That makes more sense to me, but as you say it's your decision.

For the record I never filter posters. I have no problem with negative posts as long it is stating facts and is not constantly post after post.