Member Info for Jamesiecakes

Hey Andrew

Just to make it clear, my estimate on monthly income below was only for FB.

I estimate approx $75k per month for GF, $50k per month from Alluvials, Eureka at approx $350k per month (much less visibility on the inputs for this calc so it’s more of a guesstimate based on what CB has said previously and then adjusting for price updates etc) and Kalengwa at maybe the same as Eureka.

Even if both Eureka / Kalengwa don’t happen (which is unlikely now), XTR should still be generating $550k+ per month from Q4 2021. With the Empress news yesterday I’m more confident than ever that XTR will see money from Manica this year!

Cheers

James

Hi Cyber

My understanding of the monthly cash flows XTR would be due would be approx $425-450k. This is based on the following project assumptions;

Production: 31k oz pa (from DFS but still seems reasonable based on plant being installed and the grade)
Gold Price: $1,750 oz
Royalties: 6%
Direct cash costs: $556/oz (from DFS so could be out of date)
Tax: 32%
XTR share of net profit: 23% (% changes based on gold price)

https://empressroyalty.com/site/assets/files/6157/emprnr2021-13_manicaclosing.pdf

For those interested in one of the legacy projects

Hi Phil

My understanding of how fair value will be defined would be by benchmarks (there was the recent new mount acquisition in Canada, not sure if there have been any material deals in Oz recently?) and cash flow analysis (NPV) which we simply don’t have the inputs e.g. capex, opex, copper price forecast (I would guess they would use the copper price forward curve), fiscal regime etc etc.

So in short, no idea of what fair value is of 2mt at his stage, but I like the approach in the article due to its simplicity?

Cheers

James

Hi Phil

If you listen to the most recent interview CB states that footrot isn’t required for the 2mt (or something along those lines). As they expect the P2 drilling schedule to prove up the 2mt it wouldn’t make sense to do the IP survey or drill a couple of test holes at footrot if they weren’t going to see any of the potential benefit e.g. XTR can decide when to get the reserves in the license JORC (this is my take as I haven’t seen the actual details).

Cheers

James

Hi CE

I think the fact it ties is a coincidence, the $1m per month includes our 2 Zambian projects. The royalty agreement will be just a straight 2.25% of revenue (for the first 95k oz then drops to 0.75% for ever) while our 23% is revenue less direct cash costs which from memory works out around $500k per month.

Hi Andrew

On the one hand it’s a bit disappointing that production will be from Q3 in FB, especially as I got a bit excited looking at those pictures on the website. But on the other the fact MMP seem to have sold a royalty agreement with the understanding that with production in Q3 gives me confidence that we will get production then.

Hi Ella

As you say I think MMP have just raised a bit of money against the project, whether this is because they were short of funds to complete construction or they just wanted to derisk a bit who knows. But I doubt this has anything to do with the option (I’ve never been convinced they would exercise this)

Cheers

James

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNZ9U6BcXnc

Manica briefly discussed from around 5:15 in, production from Q3

Hi Andrew

I kinda agree that’s it seems to good to be true. But the agreement is between Empress and MMP the GF area is being operated by Longhau Tianci Mining Co Ltd so would be odd for empress to show this plant? Also from memory the GF plant was around 60tpd, the plant in the photos looks much bigger than that (granted I am basing that on watching gold rush, so don’t quote me on that!)

Sure we will find out shortly!

Cheers

James

Hi Ella

That’s a great find thanks! Looks to me like MMP entered into this agreement with empress in Feb (although it’s not yet closed). As the agreement is between MMP and empress (and this is the first we have heard about the agreement) I assume this will have no bearing on XTR share of cash flows.

Looking at those pictures i can’t believe that plant is for GF or alluvials due to the size of thing! Which makes me think that FB is much further ahead than I believed. Hopefully we get an update in this in the week.

Cheers

James

Hey Steve

I calculated the average grade of the XRF for hole 1 at around 0.25% copper, I assumed the mineralisation which wasn’t specifically mentioned but was in the 900m of continuous mineralisation was at 0.20% and then just applied a weighted average to this. I am hoping I made a mistake with my numbers as your grade is much better!

Incidentally not sure how much weight we can put into the XRF results based on the reason CB gave for stopping them for hole 2 onwards.

Cheers

James

thought I was going crazy for a second :-)

So 13% after xtr remit 35% to MMP (still some decent monthly cash flow)

Hi Jadu

I thought XTR was getting 13% of GF and boa revenue under the agreements from August last year?

Cheers

James

Thanks for posting cyber.

News it just a summary of the RNS to date, there isn’t any new information. Or am I not understanding your post?

That they invest in XTR?

Should be hearing about Manica soon as well (weather is looking better), Kalwenga and of course the Alluvials q4 numbers which will hopefully include a bit of information on how GF has been progressing.

Hi Bitcoin

I’ve listened to it a few times, but I came to the same conclusion that the geo’s decided XRF wasn’t appropriate for the rock type we have (eg it’s not spread evenly) which i assume invalidates the hole 1 results. Having said that the results seemed in the range of what we we have been told to expect (0.2-0.5%) so perhaps my conclusion is wrong.

Cheers

James

I assume this invalidates the XRF results we had for hole 1?

Hi George

I think the below link summaries it quite well, others may be able to add more.

https://minexconsulting.com/definitions/tiers/

Cheers

James

Even if we assume the shape is a cube ( which based on what we know/been told I don’t think you can) you cant estimate it at 1k * 1k * 1k for the obvious reason we know the mineralisation of each hole E.g. hole 1 940m, hole 2 approx 560m and hole 3 approx 665 so approx 1 bn tones.

Hi Cornish

So regarding 2021 production this just means which ever phase of development we are in (1,2 or 3) 2021 production should be inline with the October business case of 1325 tpd (again this must be average rate not exit rate) as there was no incremental production added from Ore sorting in 2021? Now I’m even less clear on what’s has changed from business case to 2021 production guidance.

Fair point on metal price assumption, but why not hedge the remaining 50% of production if this could reduce the size of the raise and remove any doubt of being able to complete development plans.

Cheers

James