Member Info for Jamesiecakes

Q1 manica update soon (assuming it’s been a relatively positive quarter otherwise it will mysteriously take a few more months to produce), FB should be starting any week now and of course what ever they find at racecourse/ascot.

So to summarise should be plenty of gold for that cake!

F100

Very clever not to add a month or year to the end of your sentence……

Cheers

James

I highly doubt the buyer, valuer or CB is going to base a valuation on % of in ground $. They will use traditional valuation metrics like discounted cash flow, EBITDA multiples and benchmarks etc to form a valuation. This valuation is what will form the price any buyer pays or seller receives which can then be translated back into a % of in ground $ if we so wish. For me it’s a nice metric to use as gives an idea of possible SP when we know so little detail, however it’s just an indication and people shouldn’t get caught up on it.

Hi BTTS

She says it’s $1.5m pa to empress the, the $0.5m p.a. Is the incremental from the additional $1m investment.

Also empress investment is a royalty, while XTR income is revenue - direct cost * 23% (at todays gold price), so you aren’t comparing apples with apples.

Cheers

James

Does anyone else track the amount of unsold gold from our Manica operations?

I have this at 883/Oz (going back to project inception) so around $1.4m USD at Q4 2021 average sale price, would be good if someone else could validate. Assuming I’m correct it would be interesting to know if CB includes this in his “treasury is sufficient” comment or if this is a little safety net.

Cheers

James

Hi Steve

I seem to remember that CB mentioned in his video that the drill teams were working through as they weren’t able to go home due to quarantine requirements. I’m not sure on the rules in Oz between states but if the drill crews went home for Xmas/NYE they may only have got back on it recently?

Cheers

James

Looks like we have to wait to Q2……

I really hope CB updates us on FB shortly

https://empressroyalty.com/site/assets/files/6227/2022-01-12-cp-empr.pdf

Hi Andmillsy

Thanks didn’t realise Chongwe was an AFP asset, imagine it’s easy to get the assets mixed up when you have so many different companies…..

He actually mentions Chongwe twice at circa 17mins and then again at 18mins and states that it’s started selling copper (nice copper at 3%), I can only (optimistically) imagine that he meant Kalengwa and as such we have another revenue stream although find it a bit odd we haven’t had an RNS to confirm (although we didn’t have RNS for GF production).

Hopefully we will get a quarterly production update (not just relating to manica) to give a clearer view.

Cheers

James

There was a comment at around 18:15 in today’s interview that Zambia has started selling copper from Chongwei (I am sure that’s not the correct spelling, I am not familiar with this project unless it’s the project name for Kalengwa ?

Hi Lucky

I also have $250k per month in my notes, although this was from July last year so would expect this to be more at current prices (assuming no other changes).

Although bushranger has clearly been fantastic for the company and I think has loads more to offer, I do find it slightly frustrating that it seems to draw all of the companies time and we are so in the dark on what’s happening in Africa. We only have a reasonable idea of what’s happening at FB due to empress royalty updates, Eureka was supposed to be in production from May according to Feb RNS and not a clue about Kalengwa either, as you state a small plant was apparently being built here. Would be great if the company could give a clear update on the Africa projects by year end.

Cheers

James

Hi theiceberg

like many I enjoy reading your comments on here and your blog, so thanks!

One of the notes I made from last months presentation (although I don’t think this made it into the final edit) was that the deal with AA is for an indicated resource, CB did then say that the agreement doesn’t state what % needs to be indicated. From looking at the valmin code (for valuations) I understand that for inferred resources the valuation methodology would be benchmarked/costs based however for indicated resources I understand that you can use DCF analysis to determine the value.

A few questions for you or any others;

1.) do you think the more extensive drilling in the north of the deposit would be sufficient to prove that part of the resource to indicated level?

2.) assuming that when XTR come to sell the resource is part indicated and part inferred, how would you think this would be valued e.g. DCF, benchmarked against similar project or a combination? The reason I ask is that xtr would surely be in a better position to understand a likely sale price and thus enter into negotiation if they can use DCF analysis (one economic model would return the same results as the other providing inputs are the same, the biggest uncertainty would be price and I’d assume any independent valuation would be done using the cu forward curve)

Cheers

James

Hi Dibs

Good post.

My thoughts are that the AA option (ROFR) covers license EL 5574 so if they are interested this is what they will be buying, which would leave the other 3 licenses. CB made some comment that AA wouldn’t want to be surrounded by it’s competitors which to me implied the other 3 licenses would make up part of any deal (I could have misunderstood this last point)

Regarding Tax my primary point was that people are calculating a potential sale price and then SP e.g. 10k cu * 2mt * 3% / shares in issue without considering any tax liability which to me seems a bit optimistic. I am sure there will be ways to mitigate the tax liability but without knowing the transaction structure I think people should assume an ETR of say 25-30% of any sale price.

Cheers

James

Hi Sq52

Don’t get me wrong I’m excited for hole 14 assays (actually for all the assays), but not sure we can read to much into CB buying during 14. I mean the SP was 3.5pish so was a complete no brainier irrespective of how 14 was looking (IMO). Also from the presentation I’m pretty sure he said that they got rid of the XRF during phase 1 (something along the lines of its AUD7.5k per month plus geologist salary and the results aren’t reliable).

Cheers

James

Hi CRK22

I understand that XTR is listed in the UK, but prospect ore are an Australian company (XTR own prospect ore). So for me Oz tax law will come into play assuming a asset sale.

Cheers

James

Hi Joeman

I’m not a tax accountant but I wouldn’t think that the Australian tax system would allow losses generated in say Chile to be offset against gains in Australia (they would also be different legal entities under the XTR umbrella). My base case is a tax rate of 27.5% on any profit on sale, I’m sure that XTR would be able to structure the sale in a more tax effective manor (and briefly touched on this in the QA) but I’d rather be conservative.

https://www.listonnewton.com.au/information-centre/how-are-companies-taxed-in-australia

Happy to be challenged/corrected on this as I’m no expert!

Cheers

James

Hi Andrew

At the meeting last week CB was talking about how he was getting a hard time from the FCA regarding apparently delaying bad results in BZT(granted this was longer and he obviously denied), But I would imagine that this is playing on his mind so doubt he’d try to avoid publishing bad results until he can offset them with good results as any further accusations wouldn’t do him much good.

Cheers

James

I would imagine that an independent valuation would be based on the forward curve

Hi Shorn

From memory he did then say 50,70 or even 100 years.

Cheers

James

Hi Jwoz

Happy to be corrected but explorator share of Q3 gold is worth $785k (before costs and MMP share of GF revenue has been distributed), I don’t think other income of $150k is in the 785k. Costs were $210k. So I’d eventually expect $650-$700k to flow to XTR from this quarter (excellent news). But I don’t see how you get to $1.4m ?

Cheers

James

Any one know what the other income of $153k is about?

Cheers

James