Member Info for Jamesiecakes

https://xtractresources.com/investors/rns/definitive-feasibility-study/

Was from 2017, hopefully not to much inflation since then!

Hi Andrew

Good post, I would guess/hope that empress royalty is only on MMPs share of production. Assuming my expectation is correct this puts total production around 33k Oz (577/2.25%/77%) which is a bit more consistent with the other production estimates.

Hi Ella

From memory the DFS (q1 2018 I think) had direct cash cost of 556/oz

Cheers

James

I think my favourite part was from the going concern section;

“The Directors have assessed the working capital requirements for the forthcoming twelve months and have undertaken assessments which have considered different scenarios based on a number of production forecasts until June 2022.

Upon reviewing those cash flow projections for the forthcoming twelve months, the directors consider that the Company is not likely to require additional financial resources in the twelve-month period from the date of approval of these financial statements to enable the Company to fund its current operations and to meet its commitments. The Group will continue to monitor corporate overhead costs on an ongoing basis.

The Directors would not expect for funds to be raised through further equity fund raising. As is common with early producing companies, the Company raises finance for its activities in discrete tranches to finance its activities for limited periods only and further funding will be required from time to time to finance those activities. Further funding will not be required for the Manica Hard Rock collaboration agreement which was signed on 29 May 2019”.

Good to see in an RNS that further equity raises are unlikely.

Cheers

James

Hi Jwoz

I’m not disputing your logic as I agree there is POTENTIALLY serious money to made here.

However I would guess that cash is significantly less than £8.5m, maybe more like £5m. My number is no more accurate than yours as I don’t have inside knowledge obviously. But I assume things like IP surveys, expanded teams costs, open pit models, drilling in Eureka (plus open pit prep), plant in Kalengwa (CB said a small plant was being built in his interview this week, I have in my notes from the TW interview that a small plant would cost approx $1.1m).

Hopefully we get a up to date cash balance along with the annual results although I’m not holding my breath.

Cheers

James

Thanks for the link 1plus1, I’m looking forward to seeing what the initial open pit model economics look like

Does anyone have any thoughts on likely capex and opex (usd/tonne) costs for an open pit mine based on the current Jorc, trying to set my expectations for what we may see in Julys report.

Cheers

James

Hi Jwoz

Perhaps I’m missing something but wasn’t that graphic basically what XTR were expecting from hole 5 & 6? While yesterday’s Assays showed the mineralisation to be significantly less than expectations (maybe there was mineralisation but it was below the cut off)?

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7404C_2-2021-6-22.pdf

Cheers

James

Hi Andrew

I had in my head from previous Empress interviews that first income was schedule for Q3 (according to Empress) so Fall seems like a little slip to me. I don’t recall them mentioning Q4 but could easily be mistaken.

As you say it’s a little frustrating that we are trying to piece things as material as Manica together from 3rd parties!

Cheers

James

Hi Captainbob

We won’t get 10x empress as income, as they have a royalty interest while we get a % of operating income (e.g. our revenue stream will be revenue - cash costs).

I wouldn’t say they seemed particularly upbeat on Manica (I wouldn’t say they were negative either). My take is that there has been a slight slip in timeframes from Q3 to Fall (appreciate fall is September to November so could still be Q3).

Cheers

James

Few snippets of information in the below link, sounds like first production in fall (comment at back end of interview)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Tysy5tpy80&t=1236s

Hopefully there is an update from XTR on Manica and all other African assets progress before the end of the month. I’d also like to hear from CB what has caused the delay from his previous guidance.

Cheers

James

Hi Howezap

Regarding your statement “ The intention being to drill some test holes at Footrot although he previously stated was not actually budgeted for within phase 2 but the hope was to do some test holes there”. From memory I think CB was saying that footrot wasn’t included in the tonnes needed to meet the 2mt criteria, I don’t recall anything about it not being budgeted? Let me know if I’ve missed something on this.

Cheers

James

Hi Andrew

I heard the same as you but to be honest I just think CB made a mistake, wouldn’t be much of an option to AA if xtr could just reject the offer outright.

I was also a bit surprised about how CB explained the sale price would be arrived at, a 15% discount rate with a further 20% reduction to the NPV seems quite aggressive to me (also identical to the MMP option in Mozambique) I would hope/expect the discount to be more in the 10% ball park considering the jurisdiction etc.

Cheers

James

Hi littlewing

It maybe is a bit optimistic, i calculate this at 0.825% based on 8000 copper (my guess at what long term price would be used for a buy out). However this price of $0.03/lb is generic and doesn’t factor in different extraction costs (Capex/Opex), fiscal regime (Royalty/Taxes) etc which will all obviously impact price a buyer would pay.

Hi All

On another point I’ve been interested to read all the speculation on CB holding back assays. With CB having just raised £5m + I cannot get my head round (other than not wanting to give bad news) why he would further delay releasing “bad” assays as he now has enough cash to do what he wants over the next 6 months so in many respects the SP isn’t relevant to him until he either raises money again or sells his shares. What am I missing here?

Cheers

James

Steve

The fact he’s not learnt and started calling it a down day makes me suspect he’s actually the best deramper on these boards!

Cheers

James

I think the part about price to grab attention, but I actually thought the section on depletion and cut off grade was the most interesting part of the article.

https://www.mining.com/new-bull-chart-for-30000-copper-price-porphyries-nearly-mined-out/

Hi Andrew

I don’t think anyone would sanction a project requiring $10k /tonne copper to be economic, so for me I don’t think you can assume the cut of grade is now 0.15% due to the spot price. Don’t get me wrong recent price rises (and what’s being forecast) sure help.

Maybe I am wrong on this but that cut off grades you quote come from an old feasibility study at bushranger for what was a much smaller development? With BR now looking like a project of serious scale maybe there are some economies of scale which could reduce the unit development costs and therefore decrease the cut off grade.

Until there is a feasibility study complete I guess we can only speculate, but for me I think we still need to assume 0.2% cut off grade (based on the companies RNS) for any buy out calculations etc

Cheers

James

Hi Steve

I accept that CB has his faults, good news seems to flow more quickly than bad for example. However if you look back through the last 4-5 months RNSs, interviews it’s hard to believe a solely dedicated CEO would have kept us investors better informed? So for me I don’t get how you conclude “CB is simply spread to thin” other than frustration that the assays haven’t been released or we haven’t been told that the hole 2 results are now expected a little longer than shortly.

Cheers

James

Hi Andrew

If you look at the XRF and Assay RNSs you can perhaps see why XRF wasn’t released to market (or possibly carried out at site). If you look at the XRF results 110-150 & 171-319 are at 0.3% copper, per the Assay results 110-266 were 0.48% copper.

I wonder if the assay results are released to the company in batches, with the first 200-300m or so being received after hole 2 completed?

Cheers

James

Hey Ella

I’m no geologist so maybe I’ve misunderstood but my take on what CB was saying was that XRF isn’t appropriate for racecourse as the mineralization isn’t evenly spread throughout the rock (although hole 1 assays weren’t a million miles away from hole 1 XRF), I believe Kalengwa is a different type of resource which I guess is appropriate/reliable for XRF readings.

Or are you getting at something else?

Cheers

James