Member Info for Jamesiecakes

Https://x.com/ColinBirdMining/status/2061060567914156468

Hi Howezap

Call me a cynic but the fact that we’ve not heard anything on the dumps since they were acquired suggest to me that test works etc are unfavourable. We all know how CB operates by now with his communication.

That being said if we get income from SK and Morroco this year I’ll forgive him (not for the recent options which I think are a joke, well unless he sells BR for 100m…..)

Cheers

James

Hi Andrew

Think the not showing profit is an accounting thing, I am not one, so am likely to explain this badly…..

My understanding is that when you sell an asset you recognise the gain/loss in the period the sale is incurred, in maniaca case it was sold at a little bit of a premium to book value so a small profit was recognised in the 2024 accounts (See note 12 in the 2024 full year accounts).

Note 8 of the 2025 interims show how the receivable is decreasing e.g. XTR are getting money in, which they are per schedule or at least the revised one……

Cheers

James

hi howezap

based on some *** packet numbers

production: 500 tonnes/pd * 365 * 2% (cueq) * 75% (uptime for weather and other issue) = 2,750 tonnes per year (with a little rounding)

revenue: 2,750 * 12.5k =$34.3m revenue (not sure what price xtr would get for their product?), i believe royalties are 10% in zambia at prices above 7k per tonne so this drops to $30.9m

costs: 500 * 365 *50 (guess at cost per tonne for labour,energy, blasting, chemicals etc) * 90% (assume some costs stop with downtime) = $8.2m

tax rate 30%: ($30.9 - $8.2m) * 70% = 15.9

xtract share 15.9 * 35% =$5.6m

i’m sure my assumption are optimistic in parts and conservative in others but the $5m number mentioned doesn’t seem crazy and could easily see upside. very happy to be challenged on the numbers!

cheers

james

Enjoyed reading that response thanks! My understanding was that case 5 was an indicative scenario to demonstrate what lower processing costs could do to the economics rather than show the impacts of the TOMRA ore sorting on the project (as it was known not be appropriate when numbers updated). As such I believe it’s a reasonable (but far from perfect) base to update economics off to give me a direction of how the economics might look at today’s prices etc.

That being said let’s hope that the company actually update as on the project (early) in the new year!

Cheers

James

Https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/5059S_2-2023-11-6.pdf

If you take option 5 from the attached as the base (assuming that the lower processing costs align with the Ore sorting benefits for reduced opex costs). We can see that price assumptions are $11k/tonne copper, $1.9k/oz gold and $22/oz silver which give an NPV10 of 264mm AUD (185mm USD).

If you assume prices have increased to $12.5k/tonne copper, $3.8k/oz gold and $66/oz silver you can increase revenue of option 5 by:

Copper: AUD: 5.3bn * (12.5/11) = AUD 6bn

Gold: AUD: 0.7bn * (3.8/1.9) = AUD 1.4bn

Silver AUD: 0.1bn * (66/22) = AUD 0.3bn

So based on this price will increase revenue forecasts by around AUD 1.6bn or USD 1.1bn over the 11 year mine life, or $100m a year. I believe tax rate is 30% and royalty is 4% and my assumption is there is another unknown cost of 6% for total associated costs of 40%. so of this $100m a year the company net $60m post tax cashflow. Assuming this cash is distributed evenly over the 11 year mine life (I have no detail to base a better assumption on), you can add an additional $409m of npv10 to option 5 (mid year discounting) to bring the total npv10 to $594m. If you assume that XTR could sell this project for 5-10% of the npv10 it’s quite an attractive story.

To be clear I’m not expecting this but the project must be becoming more attractive and certainly must warrant some further spend/updated financial study

I also forgot to mention that I am assuming that there will be a decrease in capital costs from the Ore sorting however this will coincidentally offset the costs increases elsewhere in the project (Inflation, other costs added as the project matures etc).

Interested in others thoughts

Cheers

James

What makes you say the dumps value has 4x from what XTR paid?

I think the fact that Colin hasn’t said anything about this since acquisition tell us what we need about this one……..

Of course there is hope of more that 1.5p

If Morocco starts to produce antimony this will do well (assuming it’s reasonable volume). That excludes other assets which seem decent to this layman.

The issue is do you trust CB to deliver, all feels very ground hog day and for someone who’s invested in XTR for several years that old expression of “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me”

CB/XTR has fooled me more than twice as well…….

Fat fingers, posted that before I’d finished……

Numerous other projects I could add to the list over the last 5 years where money is spent and then we don’t hear anything about.

Quite simply it’s just not good enough

I don’t have an issue with raising money it’s why they company are listed, I do have an issue with the price (large discount) and the associated warrant’s. I find it hard to believe that this is the best the company could have gotten and just strikes me that they couldn’t be bothered to push for the best deal possible for SH.

I also have an issue with the constant waste of money which we then hear nothing about e.g. $300k on dumps, that dodgy l

From the initial silverking RNS (3/4/2024)

If the exploration programme demonstrates that the Licence cannot support an inferred resource of 300,000 tonnes or more, then the parties by mutual agreement may elect to commence a small mining project. In the event, that a small mining project is developed then Xtract's interest in the project will be 70%. If a small mine is developed, Xtract will be responsible for funding the entire project and will not recover from Cooperlemon any share of costs.

This sounds to me like XTR should have a majority stake in any small mining start up (not a minority)?

For my sins I listened to the roast podcast, I generally try and stay away as they’re not really for me.

One thing that struck me was that CB stated something along the lines of we would need to farm into a small scale mining operation at silverking, granted I’m not as up to speed with XTR as I used to be but I understood that our current expenditure did this for us (we would need to pay for the plant)

Anyone help me out on what he meant by this?

If they were working on numerous work streams for BR I’d agree it makes sense to hold off until everythings done but to my knowledge the project is effectively on hold.

It’s certainly not as simple as just plugging in some new numbers, but it’s also not rocket science nor super expensive and is something the company should be doing to understand the impact. It might well be that they have done some informal economics to get a sense of the impact but can’t release these to market (due to regulatory reasons). However as investors (many for BR) I think we deserve to know the impact of these studies on the economics. It’s been a year since the last update on. BR?

Jdau, fully agree that it would be interesting to see an updated financial study, as you spell out metal prices have increased and costs should be down due to ore sorting etc (granted inflation would likely have increased some of the estimates). So projects economics should be much more robust.

I do ask myself why hasn’t the company run the updates yet, or released the results. It wouldn’t be like CB to miss an opportunity to promote BR (after the amount of abuse he’s taken online, if it were me I’d love to show people that it’s a solid project). As such I can only assume that it’s still not a rosey enough story.

If you beleive accounts, to my knowledge the only company in the CB stable that has benefited from a loan from another company in the CB stable is XTR (GLR lent us 50k a few years back).

In terms of resources it logically makes sense to utilise people/knowledge etc where possible, as it’s win win. Just shows the deep rooted miss trust in management that this is being questioned, and perhaps another example of why a dedicated CEO would be of benefit. Still benefit from the shared resources but have someone who job it is to fight for only XTR

My bet is on the interims coming out tomorrow, so will see how much they have been spending

Hi Howezap

Where are you getting those gold grades from, it’s more like 0.05g/t? Also what’s the logic behind a 50% increase building a development costs? The last financial study was from 18 months ago so don’t see why you’d assume things have gone up by 50% since then?

Cheers

James

Lucky thats a fair comment, FWIWs my understanding was that XTR beleived the Oxides/transitionals had 2.5 years left (from memory a comment from the 2024 AGM), so not sure 1 year is along enough period to evaluate. Additionally I understood that the amount of time you could process the transitional material economically was an uncertainty e.g. this 2.5 years might be 1.5 years or might be 4 years.

So rightly or wrongly the company wanted to get a fixed income from Manica and avoid any exposure to sulphides and the financial/mining risks this brings.

To be fair Lucky, there are very few XTR shareholders who can be critical of people buying or selling at the wrong price…….

Hindsight will no doubt prove it was the wrong decision, but all decisions are easy in hindsight.

I can understand why he sold Manica but what I can’t understand is why the board allowed for the payments to be reschedule without an obvious advantage to XTR.

This being said the company seem to be in a strong financial position, with some interesting projects. This might not have been the case without the more guaranteed payment structure that the Manica sale got us.

Roggy

I’m not an expert on JLP, but believe CB stood down several years ago. Additionally I guess there price is up as they have reduced the consideration of the purchase from 30m to 18m and additionally sold 10m of the 260m tonnes for almost 7m (estimated). Happily corrected on any of this.

Confident if CB gives us some positive news on the dumps (or any of the assets) we will see a move much larger than 4-5%.

Cheers

James