Member Info for Jamesiecakes

Glixxer

They have removed run 4 from the numbers they talk about, you can see it in the table in the RNS

Cheers

James

Hi Howezap

It’s not just achieving an IRR of 25% +, it needs to be based on realistic/attractive assumptions. I could make the current conceptual study have an IRR of 50%+ by increasing the price to a level that generates this but no one’s going to buy it just cause it has an IRR of 50% + at a copper price of say 15k a ton.

I agree with what you say about waiting for the updated study, but personally I’m getting less and less confident in BR.

Cheers

James

Hi Josh

I think you are basing your calcs on run 1 (which had the best results), I’m using the average excluding run 4 for my calcs which are worse than yours.

Cheers

James

Am I reading this correctly, you reduce the ore processed by 64% but only recover 54% of the metals? Surely that doesn’t make sense (unless you processing costs are $15/t?) or your copper price is super low (in which case the project doesn’t make sense anyways).

Appreciate this doesn’t include the upside from smaller Capex etc but I’m struggling with this and hoping I’ve misunderstood?

Cheers

James

Hi Pinocchio

Time will tell on Q2, for what it’s worth my estimate of Q2 is as follows (pre tax, I doubt we will pay CIT at 32% due to losses/allowances etc but I don’t want to guess what the ETR will be)

Production 201kg = 6462oz

Price 1925oz

Revenue = $12.4m

Prod tax = $0.8m

Opex 800oz = $5.2m

Net profit = $6.5m

XTR share = $1.5m or around £1.2m

What are you expecting?

Cheers James

Hi Howezap

I think you are maybe over complicating this, Ma is using 700/Oz in her calculations of Q1 margins which I am stating is wrong the RNS shows 1185/Oz.

Going forward of course the Op cost is subjective, but again from the most recent information we have (from RNS) is 800/Oz C1 (we know the agreement with MMP is based on cash costs). So again this seems like the logical point to based Q2 and forward estimates on?

Cheers

James

Howezap

What’s subjective about the Q1 Opex cost, it’s in the RNS?

Cheers

James

Ma

It tells you the Opex costs in the RNS for Q1, the only uncertainty in the 1185/Oz is wether it includes production taxes.

For Q2 forward, 800/Oz C1 is the cost shown in the 2022 annual reports so seems a good place to start with any forecast (my understanding is C1 don’t include production taxes).

Regards

James

Am I missing something the Q1 production update had Opex costs at $1,185/oz so I’m baffled why posters are using 700/Oz in Q1?

The annual report states plant C1 costs are 800/Oz (which I understand are pre production tax), so think this is a reasonable estimate for steady state production.

Any royalty payments due to any third parties (such as royalty and streaming payments) are for the account of MMP and will be settled from its entitlement under the Collaboration Agreement.

From 21-07-22 RNS

It was confirmed in an RNS that the royalty is on MMP account

Thanks NG, looks like I need to brush up on my google earth skills…..

Hi NG

Perhaps I’m about to embarrass myself here, but how do you know the the plant is a few Ks from the pit? I don’t recall seeing anything on this?

Also check out slide 27 of the below deck, which shows they are targeting 30k oz per year or approx 80kg per month (also the timeline is a little of, but no comment on CB abilities to stick to timeframes…...). I do appreciate this isn’t an RNS but it seems what the company expected and expect now are a little different. I have no problem with things changing but I expect to know what’s changed and why.

https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/XTR-Presentation-14.10.2021.pdf

Cheers

James

Hi jamr

Don’t forget there are production taxes and op costs (salaries and resettlement costs) to offset from the alluvials which aren’t stated here like previous prod updates. I’d guess XTR netter maybe 100k from this

Cheers

James

Art

Revenue: 4,522 * 1,859= $8.4m

Production tax: $8.4m * 6% = $0.5m

Op Costs: 4,522 * 1,185 = 5.4m

Pre tax profit: 8.4-0.5-5.4 = $2.5m

XTR share: $2.5m * 23% = $0.6m or around £0.45m pre tax profit

I’m not 100% sure that production taxes aren’t included in stated cost per Oz, but think it’s better to be conservative.

Cheers

James

Per the strategic review section, known Oxides and transitional are expected to provide at least another two years mine life with the current set up. Which to my knowledge has always been the rough expectation so not sure I get what these proximals are adding (I certainly could be misunderstanding something)?

Cheers

James

My understanding was the 50:50 was for exploration, this would be for known resources so doesn’t fit in that bucket to me. But as you say CB was saying about taking a loan to pay capex and not sure why we would be doing that for 23%. I share you view on Manica and see a lot of potential in it hence want it spelt out in an RNS how this works as opposed to assuming based on a “interview”

I’d be fuming if CB dilutes to fund a new acquisition from 1.25p or what ever we are currently

My take aways (for what it’s worth)

CB/XTR need to RNS plant extension plans at Manica, for me it’s not clear how this works commercially e.g. do MMP pay for the capex and then XTR get 23% or is this a different deal e.g. 50:50 like what’s specified for exploration in the original agreement.

I assume CBS quoted Manica numbers are at current spot (will they achieve spot or will it be similar to the alluvials and say -100)? Also seems he is ignoring tax, maybe we can use historic tax losses but it seems ambitious not to have any tax factored into the calculation to me.

CB stating 1.3billion on most recent prelim BR update, I assume this is the undisounted cash at 4/lb which seems like a massive improvement on the conceptual study cashflow numbers. Seems like he is aiming for a 25% IRR, wonder if this is at 4/lb as well?

It would be good if he could do a proper interview where his statements were challenged a bit by someone with reasonable knowledge of the company/industry

Hi Andy

I agree with your analysis on BR, however in fairness think bulk ore sorting is a bit more than a hail mary. That said I have no idea why XTR only stumbled across this as a concept in February other than a delaying tactic due to financial constraints.

the below link gives some nice information on the technology and its potential impact (although is clearly a little bit of a sales pitch)

https://nextore.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2019-NextOre-Bulk-Ore-Sorting-Whitepaper-ENG_2.pdf

Cheers

James

It’s also a joke that XTR report that kind of statement I mean who cares if the revenue of the pit covers the ops costs, unless CB knows a Good Samaritan to build the plant for free……I get why optimum run these scenarios as part of a screening process but not why XTR feel the need to tell the market.