Member Info for JAllis

predator, it has been 'proved up' for decades. everybody knows there is tcfs of gas there, the cpr is merely an upgrade to what is already a considerable asset.

question everyone needs to ask themselves is if its been tcf for years why has the SP been say at such lowly levels? because its not about proving what's there! that is known!it's about getting it out of the ground which has been and continues to be the problem.

major issues around the pipeline because of the Timor Trench and majors and gov have not been able to agree.

That is the key point here that needs to be sorted before the project can move forward, not what is or is not there

refer to my postings history around the 27th November and also back to the whole in depth discussion that took place on this board then about the issue with the gas being stranded and why Conoco Phillips and Shell had to abandon it because the government wouldn't agree to how it was permitted to come out of the ground.

exact same issues exist today. Timor gov hast moved on them

one point to note about those boil videos and actually put me off is how they skirted around the whole issue of export strategy and the absolute massive question mark that hangs over it.

management well and truly avoided the elephant in the room

Has been stranded and is stranded right up to the present day.

Until Timor confirms how it's getting out the ground nobody is buying it, once bitten, twice shy.

Majors are not going to spend millions unless they know exactly how they're getting it to market.

jarvy,

I've listened to the boil videos and they've suggested fpso but this is not yet confirmed and is still dependent on Timor agreeing to the proposal.

Given Timor wanted pipeline because of economic benefits onshore e.g. jobs etc the fpso route doesn't address those concerns.

any JV or asset buyer will want full confirmation on exactly how asset is getting out of the ground before purchasing especially considering the majors have been stung on it before.

CPR can say what it wants, bottom line here is until the Timor govt confirms the exit route for that gas it isn't going anywhere, and no buyer will purchase an asset they can't grt out of the groubd

chuditch is the main asset, and its gas is presently stranded and has been for decades hence why majors moved on.

bulk of value attributable in this stick would be to the chuditch asset

highly unlikely any JV until exit route for gas has been signed off by government. who will want to buy an asset they can't access?!

it has long been known there's big gas here why has the SP not reflected this? because the gas has been stranded.

scroll thru past posts. People run risk of getting spiked here.

Interesting snippet from the Admissions Doc on the sanctions risk for AET. this may be the reason for the low price and may perhaps be the cause of a discount to the SP going forward even when the deals are signed:

Sanctions and bribery/corruption related risks

NIS holds a 4% interest in Block 3/05. Gazprom Neft holds 56.15% of NIS’ share capital. Gazprom
Neft is currently subject to US, EU and UK sanctions. Whilst the sanctions risk for the Company
proceeding is assessed to be low for a number of reasons, there is a risk that Gazprom Neft (along
with other Russian entities) may be the subject of additional sanctions in the future, including
potentially being made the subject of an asset freeze which would prevent any dealings with them.
If Gazprom Neft was made the subject of an asset freeze, any company which Gazprom Neft had a
50% or greater holding in or over which it exercised control would also effectively be sanctioned.
With respect to Block 3/05, any asset freeze imposed against Gazprom Neft would mean that NIS would effectively be sanctioned (due to Gazprom Neft having a 56.15% stake in NIS) and NIS’ shareholding in Block 3/05 (amounting to 4%) would be frozen and could not be sold. As NIS only has a 4% interest in Block 3/05, the Block itself would not be sanctioned, however, there could be practical problems in that some suppliers may refuse to supply equipment for use on the Block, some counterparties may refuse to buy oil from Block 3/05 due to the connection with Gazprom
Neft, and banks may be concerned about processing payments connected with Block 3/05. These would be decisions based on risk appetite rather than the application of sanctions and the Company anticipates the challenges would be capable of being navigated and managed.

Sonangol reportedly holds 20% of the share capital of an indirect subsidiary of PdVSA. PdVSA is
currently subject to US sanctions. As such, Sonangol appears to have an interest in a company
(PV) that is blocked by US sanctions. This does not mean that Sonangol is blocked (or sanctioned).
It could nevertheless create indirect sanctions risk if Sonangol were to breach US sanctions in its
conduct relating to PdVSA and OFAC were to decide to take action again Sonangol. The Company
has adopted extra precautions to ensure that Sonangol is not sanctioned at any time when the
Company transacts with Sonangol.

Sonangol EP (the owner of Sonangol) has been subject to corruption allegations for decades, with
government officials and high ranking Sonangol EP employees alleged to have benefitted from
Sonangol EP’s seemingly opaque financial reporting, transactions in which there were suspected
conflicts of interest and the alleged direct misappropriation of funds from Sonangol EP.

Per previous lengthy discussions, until an export strategy for the oil in Chuditch is agreed between Oz and TL operators the gas in Chuditch will remain stranded and is going nowhere.

No matter how much legal protection exists if there is not agreement in the first place for how that gas is going to be moved out there's no legal agreement to protect/uphold so all this recent hoo-ha about legal protection etc is just the latest PUMP.

Wrt to resource upgrade, this amount over and above existing resource studies has already been alluded to by the co in RNS in Q4 last year.

Bottom line, nothing here is new or significant, everything depends on agreement of exit strategy for gas, that is the only thing that matters, once that is in place then things can start moving forward properly, anything before that is, as has been before, hype, pump and meaningless in the greater scheme

i would have expected it to be with the announcement today but it a fair point it could be released on friday instead, let's see if he buys

net effect is the same, unless you can demonstrate where exactly the rules disallow insider from partaking in an open offer whilst a sale process is ongoing there's nothing to suggest MC would not be able to buy in like any other shareholder.

no as its already been announced there would be a raise. if it was considered insider Mellon wouldn't be able to buy either

interesting to ntoe MC didn't buy any shares in the raise.

If there's offers for 100M, I. e. High chance of 4 bagging, why is he not buying?

personally still waiting to see where this money is coming from:

"To achieve the range of outcomes indicated in the Study, funding for capital and working capital requirements in the order of $30 million USD will likely be required. Investors should note that there is no certainty that the Company will be able to raise that amount of funding when needed. It is also possible that such funding may only be available on terms that may be dilutive to or otherwise affect the value of the Company’s existing shares. "

Granted c15M from AA, once it passes the 60 day mark but even that will be insufficient given just the building of the road alone will cost c15M - "The main Capex would be for putting in a suitable road between the mine face and the Great Northern Highway to the west of the tenement but once installed would need minimum maintenance. This would be in the region of half the projected Capex..."

Even at 20M figure some have thrown about there is still a gap and given AA funding only comes after the 60 day period either no work happens in the interim meaning longer lead time or partial funding is raised before AA approval to do some of the work, the latter is a risk as if AA funding not forthcoming then theyre stuck with some work having been done for a project that the rest of the funding isnt available for.

disconcerting that they have not been issued as options with a strike price. these are pure, unadulterated freebies, regardless of what the SP is meaning regardless of how much further dilution takes place

looking in, prev a holder and just to say too much should not be read into options exercise dates i.e. 3 months expiry implies something major happening before then.

options can be free to expire and upon expiry replacement options can be awarded at same levels. there is no law against this and it is entirely at co's discretion to do so. hence just because options expire in march 23 does not necessarily mean major news before then. they could well expire and then another set be issued.

presentations are usually updated because presentations are being made, and in the world of AIM, presentations are usually made when seeking funding otherwise the co would be going about BAU rather than randomly updating PowerPoint decks.

Max,

until we get confirmation of figures in the bank and expenditure we can only go by what trends are so i'd be very careful relying on a $1.8m figure. BFS will be interesting to see where in the timeline this fits in as, depending where it does, it will impact overall timeframe to market.

Wrt to native title approvals etc, i think in current mkt conditions they will cause a spike and the given the c 6 month timeline, dso price risk and funding questions the sp will fall back until we are either closer to production, see a concrete path to it (AA approval and funding gap closed) along with the DSO price remaining at proftable levels

Thanks Max.

Where are you getting the 1.8M figure for H2'22 from?

How long does a BFS take?

FG,

Production approvals won't pay the bills. The only way we avoid the need for funding is when the sales start rolling in and that is post approval, post road build, post AA DD etc, so a while away yet.

We do not yet know if the AA 15M will cover the mine build and we run out of cash in Feb. Companies usually don't raise at the last minute understandably so there will be a need for funds in Jan.

Let's see