Member Info for JAllis

Great find, Dicko! What's particularly intriguing about this transaction, valued at $66.5M for only 27.3% ownership of a total of 21.7 million barrels (proven + probable), is its significance when compared to TRP's potential.

Considering TRP's equivalent, albeit yet-to-be-confirmed commercial categories of 20.9 million contingent barrels and 25.4 million prospective barrels, totaling an impressive 46.3 million barrels with a 100% working interest, sheds light on a compelling comparison.

Using the 27.3% acquisition by VAALCO as a valuation baseline, it's evident that TRP's value far surpasses VAALCO's $66.5M valuation for Njonji alone. Notably, this evaluation doesn't even account for potential assets in South Africa, Namibia, or any further value enhancements in Cameroon.

This presents a massive upside gap to the current market cap of approximately £2.5M and suggests that securing funding should not be an issue, given the prevailing valuations in the region for similar assets.

Discounted placing, as expected!

Kever - asset backers will likely want to see TRP ability to fund its share, any raise participants will likely want to see a firm commitment from asset backers so what gives? asset backers cant be given a higher share of the drill as we know TRP doesnt want to give that much away so asset backed deal cant come first meaning only solution is to offer raise participants a discount, as mentioned previously this has been upto 60% in the past and will need to be in the $3M region based on the note

Bridgedogg - Not necessarily, to make the raise attractive given the farm out funding will not be in place prior to the raise itself TRP will likely offer a discounted placing. This has been upto 60% in the past.

TRP are not willing to give the amount away that is required for the full $13.4m costs - per the extract I posted from SPAngel last night

First - you are talking as if this 2x asset backed funding is a done deal based on some secret data you have that you are not willing to share with anyone on here which itself makes this claim dubious

Second - If we are to believe for a moment that there are 2 x asset backers they will only want to back when they know funds are in place to proceed with the drill - i.e. TRP has its share in hand. They will not agree to a farm in regarding which there is uncertainty surrounding TRP's ability to fund it's share. For this to happen TRP's c$3M contribution will need to be in place BEFORE the 'asset backers' commitment hence equity raise before farm in announcement

Kever -

On Bank financing, you say "..BGFI bank have already sanctioned the bank loan but they really wanted a farm out deal to go with it. .." whereas TRP in their interims say "..We are also still discussing credit facilities with the local Cameroon banks, although the difficulties of reconciling their requirements with a farm-out type of funding agreement have led us to prioritise the farm-out discussions over the bank discussions for the time being."

On the CoS - what is important is not what CoS TRP ascribes to the well but what CoS potential funders ascribe to the well as that is wht they base their funding decisions on. Per the SPAngel note "...However, we assume an incoming partner will ascribe a lower probability of commercial success to the Njonji asset due to the appraisal nature of the initial NJOM-3 well, which is needed to confirm the contingent resource volumetric estimates and producibility of the reservoir..."

So, as I said highly unlikely a the bank is going to fill the funding gap in drilling funds - banks dont finance risky oil drills - which will leave a $3M gap that TRP will need to make up via an equity raise, and likely at a discount - upto 60% going by previous raises.

Talks of bank financing for the drill are laughable. No bank is going to lend money for a risky appraisal drill. The bank finance is for expenditure in the event of a successful drill to build extraction infrastructure.

In the meantime we are looking at a c$3m funding gap to be raised via equity, likely at a discount going by previous raises.

Lsetown - Based on the recent SPAngel note the expectation is the company will be need to raise c$13.4M with c$10m of that coming rom a farm in for 32.5% and the balance of c$3M will need to be raised by the company.

The note goes on to describe how attempting to raise the full $13.4M from a farm out partner will be too dilutive and this approach has previously been decided against by TRP:

"Glencore, with its adjacent development-ready Oak discovery was able to attract Perenco to

farm-in to the project in 2018 and fund all the forward capex costs in return for a 50% equity

interest and operatorship. However, we assume an incoming partner will ascribe a lower

probability of commercial success to the Njonji asset due to the appraisal nature of the initial

NJOM-3 well, which is needed to confirm the contingent resource volumetric estimates and

producibility of the reservoir.

In 1Q20, Tower announced a heads of terms agreement in respect of a farm-out of a 24.5%

working interest in the Thali PSC to OilLR, which agreed to pay $7.5m towards the cost of the

NJOM-3 well and a 10% overriding royalty to Tower on the contractor share of production

under the PSC. Regrettably, with the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, OilLR was unable to

proceed with its fundraising and the agreement was withdrawn. In 3Q21, Tower executed a

heads of agreement in respect of a farm-out of a 49% non-operating working interest in the

Thali PSC to Beluga Energy, which would cover $15m of the NJOM-3 well costs and pay a similar

10% overriding royalty payable to Tower. This farm-out also failed to complete, with Tower

announcing in 2Q22 that it would try to structure a less dilutive farm-out for shareholders."

Well your comments may be pure speculation but the fact there may be a gap between funds raised from farmout partners and total cost of drill isn't - it's based on comments made in releases - and not is the fact that the last two placings have both been at a discount with the last c£2M one at a 60% discount

Ozayr - When was the last time TRP placed at 1x to the SP premium, never mind 5-10x premium as you're suggesting?

That said, any placing announcement could also be before if farm out wants to see evidence of TRP's ability to fund it's share before committing.

I dont think they can announce farm out partner until they have secured the contract with the farm out partner and they can only secure it if the gap in funding is closed.

It seems both announcements will likely come together

The last time TRP did a placing of £2.3M was on the 16/5. Then the closing price the day before was 0.12p per share, the placing was done at 0.05p per share representing a WHOPPING 60% discount. Shares opened on the day of the placing at .54P and closed the day at 0.051p.

A similar placing around the £2.3M mark at a similar discount would mean a placing at about 0.0008p.

Problem with this is, even a small placing say £2.5M is 100% dilution

Kever - where are you getting your information from RE the 2 asset backed deals 'in place'?

thanks

Where did you get another $2.3 million from - its actually up to another $4.75million - https://snipboard.io/ARHyon.jpg

Important to note that margins will be significantly higher this year, even if overall revenue is 'modestly' higher profit will be materially higher due to significant reductions in the minimum revenue guarantees meaning BOOM keeps a higher share of ad revenues.

Chance of Commerciality is set at 75 and 50%, Jimmy72, and that is what ultimately matters. MOU 2/3 are set at 11 and 12%

Thanks, Pv72, will check them out