Member Info for jackpack

it will be the next 4 weeks that will give an indication as to what is really happening - if no large tranche of placing share share hit the market and the price remains static then something really must be happening . We would need to be at .24/.25 share price to sell at a profit .

GORDON I keep thinking about your post earlier in the week about share price been held. I more and more think that its possible. Placing without a discount to share price and no increase in share price to allow for forward selling of placing shares at a profit. It all says share accumulation behind the scenes and maybe they don't want us to know who they are. I don't think we have a possible take over attempt from a major they have codes of conduct that they must stick to. However there are plenty of others who would like Oilex Cambay asset. If there is no big sale of placing shares over the next few weeks then we have to ask why.

Every consolidation where you end up going to say 19p is always bad news for ordinary shareholders. I have specialised in oil and gas for over 25 years and cannot remember a consolidation that's been good news for ordinary shareholders as within 12 months there is always a group of derampers come along and make a good profit taking the price down(the headroom with such a consolidation is always on the downside not the upside) Better to do it on a long term bull run backed by good solid results if at all and I would strongly advise against it.

Hi Davwal re your last post possible the bankers are business men who know that a deal is in the pipe line for either SA or Namibia through there contacts in the financial industry. As such it would make sound financial sense to provide a loan against future production read energy voice from last august its already know that oil is there in commercial quantities and with the increased oil price no real risk to the bank.

CAESAR is this try at a subtle deramp read the RNS it says bank loans agreed quarter 3 which starts in 8weeks and drill in quarter 4 often condition of loan against future production is no placing for a given time

Anybody else noticed how we are starting to see the subtle derampers starting to post it seems that a lot of shorters using spread betting etc have problems .
They should remember that tower is not a one trick pony and news is due regarding SA and Namibia any RNS landing is likely to cause them some real pain

I'm told loans from banks against future production come with written agreements NO PLACING usually for at least one year and normally two they want the business and the interest that brings. Also trp can write the interest off against any in country tax and it helps local economy better for cameroon gov PR

Where is the placing I don't see one . It should be remembered we already know oil is there read energy voice August last year ( away at the moment and unable to provide a link) read the RNS this should provide income for years to come hence talk of bank loan probably secured against future production which is often the norm in these cases NOT A PLACING.

It is not insider information if a any would be investor is introduced to any team member of a multinational in the background looking at coming on board . Not saying this is the case of course and we will not find out until after refrac.
Regardless I think it common sense that this is a buy and hold for most large investor now - famous last words

Sorry something went wrong with last post it should read starting not staring and there should be ) after industry

Well Gordon I am now staring to see why the refrac is been given a 75% chance of success (one of the highest in the industry. Would Schlumberger have it said that they failed again it would do their reputation a lot of damage, then we have Roland overseeing the refrac with all his experience.

MR investment i cannot see any issue of free share's remember Oilex is on the Australian market as well which is very well regulated so any arrangement of this type would show up. Have you seen anything to back your theory up?
However I do see a lot of change look at our new very experienced management team . Then there are the various very experienced contractors been employed for the refrac. This all say's to me multinational in the back ground looking to come on board if the refrac goes well . Wonder if there is any form of NDA in place

Thanks jasper 75% very high they should do an interview with energy voice to get it known in the industry. That would certainly bring it to the attention of all those specialist oil and gas investors who like to keep up to date with what's happening in the industry.

Jasper13
Where does it say 75% chance of success for refrac as i cannot find any thing stating 75%. This is very high for the oil and gas industry and is likely to attract a lot of people.

The latest fund raise include options for 30 million shares to pay fee's nothing really compared with other fund raise in the past.
However reading the RNS the shareholders and others who put up the money seems very supportive wonder if they have some idea that the refrac will likely be very successful . In fact taken that the placing was without a discount I wonder if some involved in the placing are owner of some of the options due to expire in 8 weeks on the 30th june @ .476 and they would like to use them. This would give oilex just over 2.8 million. But over the course of the next 8 weeks the share price would have to go to at least .55 to make it viable. Could it happen what does everybody else think?

One other point if the Zubairs wanted to take us private there would I think be other interested parties and there would be a biding war and the Zubairs probably know it.

I have always thought ARA are a company of long standing who pride themselves on the reputation of treating shareholders of any company they have an interest in fairly. There is also the fact that when taking an interest in any company in the future this type of reputation always goes down well with the shareholders of other companies they may wish to take an interest in.

If any of the .28 share options were exercised last week when the price went to .28 and just above we should get an RNS telling us. I doubt any would have been forward sold at the .30 share price went to thus we may soon see a run up to possibly .35 if indeed any were exercised.

Its the 6th April and some investors may well be putting some of their new isa allowance into oex hence the small rise today. Lets hope it continues for the next few days creating a good base for the day the RNS arrives saying the seal's are removed.

I think option holders will forward sell starting at about ,31/.32 whilst other option holder will wait until the share price hits at least .35p. If however the same people hold the .46 options with an end date of 31st June it could be in there interest to let the price run up to say .51 which might just be possible with upcoming refrac before end of june if the .28 are not taken up before refrac. Then take the .28 options with the December end date later that way they get a profit from both sets of options.