The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Interesting on twitter this afternoon. Would take HUR cash by June 2022 to 73% of current Mcap.
https://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1491394443274252291/photo/1
Just to clarify, the last two times the 20EMA has crossed the 50EMA on the daily has seen it go on runs from 5.4p to 60p and 23.5p to ATH's. On both occasions those rises happened within two months of eachother (June-Aug 2020 & Jan-March 2021). Taken a larger position off the back of the technicals supporting the fundamentals.
The weekly 20EMA is looking set to cross the weekly 50EMA next week meaning we could see a huge jump in SP here. A slight pullback to the daily 20EMA was required given the rise recently, should see the support from the daily 20EMA coincide with the weekly EMA cross and testing resistance levels at 40p where the volume profile begins to thin. Any momentum going into that should see blue skies between 40p-60p and could take it out in fairly quick order.
Also found support on the daily 20EMA today with weekly 20EMA set to cross 50EMA within short order. IMO we see this break 5.3p end of this week/start of next. Any news may accelerate the shift.
If we can get both legs above 5.32 resistance from Sept 2021, should see this move fairly quickly to 6.65. Will be helped by any new of course. Weekly Stoch, RSI and MACD all look healthy to do so.
Unless I've missed something here, Kistos generated circa £6m between May-July's trading updates with Ducth TTF not close to where we have seen it Q3 & Q4 2021. Year end cash balance was £77m so circa £17m increase since July 17th's trading update when we had been quoted £1m per day by AA.
Do we assume that the £77m cash year end is with the acquisition already taken care of? Given they have used 'existing resources' to fund this deal it's the only logical explanation as the deal is circa £50m more than they supposedly have in the bank. Do we also assume the £77m cash year end has the latest drilling expenses also covered? If so, very positive £130m cash generation in 5 months.
Few too many open ended questions from a poorly worded RNS and something hopefully Malcy will cover in his interview this week.
I think the RNS could have been worded better by the team to demonstrate the below Dipaa. I.e. Cash Balance end of 2021 was circa £180m, with cash balances after acquisition £77m or something along the lines. Leaves no room for disparity and people getting the wrong end of the stick that I've seen on twitter already this morning (point of £17m in 6 months as I initially noted doesn't make good headline reading). Either way you get the bed wetters and the sell on news investors anyway so it's not surprising that were 4% down. KIST isn't a quick trade stock and if gas prices stay as high as forecast into 2023 and Nord Stream II is written off altogether then it's only positives in my eyes aside from Q-11B which is a slight disappointment given the optimism and numbers that had surrounded it.
Think some would be disappointed with the Q11-B drill result of mostly water and the cash generation of only £17m in 6 months with gas prices at all ATH. Unless (which I assume is incorrect) they've already deducted the transaction cost from cash reserves to give their EOY figure. Given AA said they were making circa 1m per day with TTF in the mid 90's it's surprising their cash in the bank was so low.
IMO it's a positive RNS as they've doubled their daily production and continue to deliver on their promises without any need to raise funds through diluting existing holders, although can appreciate that for some people they'll focus on the negatives. Not every RNS Kistos release is going to be sunshine and unicorns. Either that or the acquisition had already been factored into the share price and folks have brought the rumour, sold the news.
Either way, continue to hold long term here and have no doubt we'll continue to see the SP move in the right direction.
Big news for Shell, POTENTIALLY big news for TRP. It's been common knowledge for a long time there is oil off the coast of Namibia, that's why all the big boys are there and have surrounding licenses, but they'll see TRP as a small MCAP company with little money in the bank and either offer them bargain basement money or wait until the licenses expire and pick them up cheaper than getting into a bidding war.
How long will it take Shell or another major to set up the infrastructure to actually get the oil out of the ground? A lot longer than the 1.5m raised will take TRP and a lot longer than the farm out share will take them also.
I hope you make money, just as I hope it pulls back enough for me to buy back in. Not talking the share down, just being honest about my viewpoint.
What is laughable though are those on the twitter boards saying they've had direct contact with JA yesterday and that news is imminent. Couldn't be more P&D if they tried. You think JA has the time between sorting a farm out to reply to specific investors giving them the heads up good news is coming next week. Pull the other one.
Hopefully see you at 0.29 moneymuch and then we'll be pulling in the same direction again.
Made 25% without needing to pump it all over Twitter, yes. See an opportunity, buy and then sell for profit. 'Big news' has been poised to drop with TRP since I first invested back in November 2020 at 0.45 which I was underwater with for sometime waiting for said big news. Since then there has been numerous placings, dilutions and very little in the way of big news aside from a promised Cameroon farm out which they're making a hash of. Managed to sell at 0.60 towards the back end of last year at a profit and I'll continue to trade TRP as I have this week. As for long term investment I've seen very little that gives me faith in JA to leave my money here long term. You tend to find after an increase in SP they hit you with a placing so they can get a premium amount at what seems a good discount.
As I said, whatever your reason for investing I hope you make money as that is what we are all here to do and opinion is what makes us unique. Again, if this drops below 0.30 which I expect it will in the next few days, I'll jump back in and wait for the next tirade of TRP #'s on Twitter to boost the price another 20%. It's cyclical.
Love a good old Twitter P&D. You'd think this is the next big oiler. 24m volume in the first hour doesn't match the outlandish comments being made by some yesterday. As the Shell news settles this will slowly creep below 0.30 again as Cameroon news awaits. Let's hope the £1.5m they raised to cover costs while the farm out lasts as long as it takes them to conclude, otherwise could see another hefty raise sub 0.20.
I'm not a bitter investor either before some jump on this, made 25% on this Monday after news broke selling yesterday morning at a nice profit. Will buy back once again for another 25% early next week if no news on Cameroon between.
GLA whatever your motive for investing.
At Dutch TTF Prices of 180, Kistos are clearing £1.6m per day in profits. £11.2m per week. Who still wants to beat the net debt drum??
Let's hope this lot aren't as incompetent and idle as their predecessors (if that's possible). Hopefully TA announces his plans sharpish and we can get a fire lit under this SP. Been dwindling in no mans land for far too long.
I know people all have their own agendas but why some are so fixated on Kistos' net debt is beyond me. Not even trading on AIM for one year, they've already demonstrated that their ability to make money is sensational.
RNS 21/05 had cash balance at £46.8m with net debt of £82.2m.
RNS 13/07 had cash balances at £51m 30/07 (rough currency calculated at 1 EUR/0.86 GBP), without inferring net debt
This increase of £4.2m in cash balance in 6 weeks tells you all you need to know - and that's when Dutch TTF prices increased from €26 vs €36 in the same period. Gas prices have since tripled the former and are closing in on tripling the latter also (albeit some hedged). As we stand currently, gas prices are more than quadruple the €21 AA spoke about in his first investor presentation which he described all the way back then as excellent.
This combined with positive news from the increase in oil to 3200bopd flow all and continued drilling attributes to an extremely positive end to 2021 and start to 2022.
£5 target here by Christmas would be conservative IMO with potentially double that by Christmas 2022.
ATB.
How long's a piece of string. I'd like to see it to return to the 9p highs we saw earlier in the year but there are so many variables and cogs turning that each one could see either spikes or crashes. For me the largest next step is the FDA approving the products for use in America. This would give much needed confidence that one of the largest healthcare systems in the world supports their use and safety. It would open the market up for more deals like we have seen.
Good article liked by MGC on twitter yesterday - https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/959209/mgc-pharmaceuticals-reports-strong-phytocannabanoid-sales-959209.html
The final sentence from Roby Zomer was vital for me 'We will wait until the 30th of September to see additional clinical trials approval in United States, which will give us the first purchase order with money in the bank'.
Indian import approval is excellent, although as of yet no orders have been placed nor has Emergency Use Authorization been passed. If marketed properly it could see large scale orders, eclipsing the American deal we have just seen.
The rate of which they spend money is my only concern as their revenue and profits don't come close (yet), so any American and Indian deals would put the majority of the markets cashflow worries to bed.
Exciting teams ahead.
Also still waiting on Canadian approval. I can't see it won't happen if American approval is passed combined with todays positive RNS. Phase III trials will be pivotal but a huge Q4 ahead with hopefully some serious money being generated by Xmas.
Hopefully to follow the same pattern July 5th-7th where it dropped 14% then proceeded to rise another 50% from July 7th to August 16th.
And as I type they drop 5%! Showing on google, investing.com and HL.
Investing.com isn't showing any change today either. HL showing them as flat also.
Imagine by looking at the times of the two larger trades (2.9m @ 11.25am & 2m @ 11.46am) were both in fact buys when you look at the share price of the other trades around them and the spread at the time they were brought. All looks very promising and hopefully see a run up here into tomorrow afternoon in anticipation of some news dropping Monday AM. GLA.