The real value19 Jan 2026 14:56
Valuation by Milestone – Zanaga (ZIOC)
Baseline assumptions (important)
Large-scale, long-life, high-grade iron ore project
Significant capex → high financing risk
Jurisdiction risk (Republic of Congo) → persistent discount
Fully diluted shares ≈ 1.5–1.6bn (rough order)
1️⃣ Today – Pre-financing / Development Stage
Status:
No binding project finance
No major off-take signed
No construction
How the market values it:
As an option on future success
Valuation based on sunk costs + hope
Typical EV: £50–120m
Share price range: 5–10p
👉 This is exactly where ZIOC trades now
→ Market is behaving rationally
2️⃣ Off-take Agreements Signed (but financing not final)
What changes:
Commercial validation of product
Reduces revenue uncertainty
Financing probability improves, but not guaranteed
Market behaviour:
Partial re-rating
Still heavy discount for funding risk
Typical EV: £150–300m
Indicative share price: 12–20p
📌 Often volatile here — traders pile in, long-term holders still cautious
3️⃣ Project Financing Secured (major re-rating point)
This is the big one
What changes:
Project is real
Banks + investors have validated economics
Bankruptcy risk collapses
Market behaviour:
Step-change, not gradual move
New investor base becomes available
Typical EV: £400–700m
Indicative share price: 25–45p
👉 This is usually a multi-bag move from current levels
👉 Often happens fast, not linearly
4️⃣ Construction Started / FID Completed
What changes:
Execution risk replaces funding risk
Timeline to cashflow becomes visible
Market behaviour:
Less speculative buying
Institutions begin accumulating
Typical EV: £600–900m
Indicative share price: 40–60p
📌 Upside here depends on:
Build progress
Capex discipline
Iron ore prices
5️⃣ First Production / Ramp-Up
What changes:
Cashflow is no longer theoretical
Valuation shifts to NPV / EBITDA multiples
Market behaviour:
Less hype, more fundamentals
Often underwhelming initially due to ramp-up risk
Typical EV: £1.0–1.5bn
Indicative share price: 60–90p
6️⃣ Steady-State Production (blue-sky, years out)
Assuming:
Stable operations
Supportive iron ore price environment
No major political disruption
Typical EV: £1.5–2.5bn+
Indicative share price: £1.00+
⚠️ This is not where the market prices it today — and rightly so.
🧠 Key Reality Check
Most juniors never get past stage 2 or 3.
That’s why:
Upside looks huge
Price today looks “stupidly cheap”
But risk is real
ZIOC’s flat price does not mean the market is missing something — it means the market is saying:
“Show me the money.”
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