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you have the link to the article?
Where is this idea of a placing coming from? Has not been mentioned by the company. What is known is their cash balance and the run-rate but the expense, as Ingo said on the presentation, is because they paid fees. Those are paid early in the year. Capital raise will come if the company is not bought out. But that is a question for Q3/Q4. Also, if there is a capital raise BHP would think probably I buy you out here anyway. Do not want a capital raise to happen.
not sure what your point is. someone sells someone is buys. but people are not willing to buy where people want to sell. so price goes down.
FCX down today -6%
Bank of America on SolGold today:
Cascabel PFS = Value is evident. More levers to pull…
-SOLG announces PFS on Cascabel/Alpala project 85% owned. Post tax NPV US$2.9 bn, IRR 19%. Upside levers for up to $1.8 bn NPV
-Beyond Alpala, SOLG has c. 13 interesting prospects in Ecuador, Porvenir "next up". We assign limited value to these.
-Maintain BUY. Price objective GBp70, now 0.75x our updated risked NPV calculation. We note BHP, NCM each own 13.5% of SOLG
A more conservative, modular approach to project
The announced PFS figures are lower than our previous NPV estimates which were based on the now out-of-date "PEA" (preliminary economic assessment). They also reflect a reconsidered, possibly lower risk approach to the project. The new project now only targets 21% of the available ore which contains c. 38% of the contained metal value. Construction will take place over 5 years with first ore processed in CY2029. The processing plant is modular with 2x 12.5 Mtpa stages staggered to match assumed fairly slow ramp-up of mined production. Management has indicated various "levers" which could still add up to $1.8 bn to the NPV. We've risked this and include c. $550 mn. That said, we include ZERO value for SolGold's other Ecuadorian prospects (see below).
redknight1 and MetalTrader yes thought it was clear and he said they will update the market. All of this is to show BHP we can walk this on our own. Make a bid!
Ortherncopper he said that they are working with IBs on funding and will update the market. Project is deliverable and funding will be available. (Btw what is wrong with Ingo's right arm?)
DBW, Ingo is good. Now he is talking about funding.
Ortherncopper agree we need a funding package. I believe they will say more about this in the following weeks. At least I would hope so.
I bought more but just baffled. This should be up +10% . Anyway I agree with what you say just crazy that the stock is where it is.....
Reading all positive commentary and despite that retail is selling? Why?!
One thing also very positive to mention is that we only use up a fraction of the resources to achieve all this amazing CF. Is incredible.
Some guys really have no understanding what these IRRs mean and what IRRs have been achieved historically. It is madness to assume we will get an IRR of above 30% and it is madness to assume anything around 25% is a disaster!!
19/4/2022
00:19 lowtrawler: MK, only 1 trading day left before the big reveal. I'll try asking again. What IRR would you consider to represent a robust PFS? I'm not asking you to predict the PFS, only advise what benchmark you are using to judge the PFS when it is issued. I think anything below 25% is disastrous; 30% would be OK, and; anything over 35% good to excellent. There is a grey area between 25% and 30% where it could be called in either direction. In my view, to achieve your 50p on Wednesday, IRR will need to be 35% or more and the takeover rumours will need to persist. So long as takeover rumours remain, even 26% may be enough to prevent a share price fall. The reason I'm so keen to get benchmark views is the share price is likely to spike simply from publishing the PFS and will move to a more reflective price as the day goes on. Unless you are forearmed, initial price movements could be misleading.
OC why would't this be good?! I mean previously they got hammered for using to high number now why would they use a lower number. Also don't forget for the calculation of the main plan they had used $4 and not the $3.30. Think we will see $3.50 as the copper price used maybe $4.
OC think what is important is that we will get a high NPV project that has a 20%+ IRR payout and a short payback period. So do not think this is a disappointment, if it turns out that way.
Ortherncopper I agree with all but think IRR will be more like 23-24%.
How can there be a delay if they already announced that they will announce the pfs?!
Putting 5% as the base case discount rate would be foolish. They can have a sensitivity but don't think it really can be lower than 8%. But agree the reality where you finance it might be totally different. Maybe they go the Elon Musk way and use 8.420%
provenireal think a lot is also based on the discount rate. Sell side analysts use 12% think that is too high. Should be probably more like 10%. Also discount rate for BHP is a different one than for SolGold. Think I am inline with your numbers but believe IRR will be around 23-25% with the capex being probably close to your stated number maybe a bit higher.
Hey Bozi, I am just trying to add some value. Joined this board recently but think adding some more analysis can be helpful. But obviously everyone is entitled to their views. I just tried to lay out my views as best I could.