Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
Ortherncopper why would someone sell now? Makes no sense at all. The pfs will be commercially viable and someone will come and bid and if not this project will be deliverable.
LM, Smaller plays will have ridiculous IRRs for sure but not in this scale.
You are right I referred to that just because ppl seem to be anchored on that figure. But my figure is not based on that but more so based on the Mining Journal pdf and what other projects have achieved and achieve. So believe anything above 20% is amazing with this scale. Think Ecuador is a better jurisdiction than Mongolia. Equal to Argentina probably and Filo had 23% and is much smaller 3.5x smaller.
Addicknt, ha no worries. Let that be least of our problems.
Addicknt I think the previous case was also not received well because the entire plan was much bigger in scale etc. So think the input cost going higher (capex) means also output price (copper price) going higher means that we will remain ballpark at the same IRR level i.e. 23-25%. I also believe this project now will be deliverable and deliverability is not only subject to the capex but also the size of the project etc. I believe company is much more ready with Darryl to deliver.
Addicknt also just to clarify my point with the capex. Imagine you build a skyscraper 1000m tall. Capex is let's say 2bn. Then you decide to reduce the building to 500m, Your capex is not going to come down to 1bn. Will be probably 1.2-1.3Bn. And then imagine that input cost have increased by 25%. you are at 1.6-1.7bn capex. Also do not forget cost have gone up but also your output benefits form that as well i.e. copper price is higher means NPV is higher.
LM no way the IRR will be at above 30-35%. Also the PEA is irrelevant. So many things have changed. It doesn't make sense to be anchored at those figures. There is no project that has that kind of IRR with this size.
Don't think we will have wasted our money. My point is being that if the capex doesn't decrease it doesn't matter. What matter that we have a project that has an IRR >20%. That this project is a big project that despite the "high" capex will be a lower operational cost project than what most majors have.
Addicknt my view is that (very high level) that the project ahs been reduced in size but the NPV won't reduce proportionally and at the same time spot copper price is much higher. That's why I believe we will see an NPV of $3-4Bn. At the same time I think the capex number will be high still, which will reduce the IRR slightly. The reason why I believe the capex will be higher is that the project is shrinking but cost usually are not shrinking in a linear fashion.
I think the NPV will be between $3-4bn depending on the copper price assumed. IRR should be slightly lower vs the PEA which had 25%. SO expect IRR range of around 23-25%.
Dreamboatwarrior cannot find the link. Can you pls paste a link in here?
Rk in regards to your post from Sunday (20:44) what CGP is worth. I think one can buy that at $3.5M. Once capex starts they have to be able to put down their own share. If they cannot do that their share turns into a 0.5% NSR I think. BHP/NC is not going to bid for CGP but just wait once they own SOLG.
'Following completion of the earn-in, Cornerstone must contribute to development of the Cascabel tenements or be diluted, and if its interest falls below 10%, it shall reduce to a 0.5% NSR royalty which SolGold may acquire for US$3.5million.'
Understood. Yeah makes sense. Think there will be some savings and some inflation of costs like in everything these days.
Just to clarify the the pre-production here should be around $2.5Bn. Think the PEA had total cost of $10Bn capex for the overall build of which half of it or so was maintenance capex. This Wood PEA how does that compare to SolGold you think? Was you assumption that the pre-production cost was $1.2Bn so SolGold should be at a similar level?
Hey LM thank you for this. Think the capex numbers you have are unrealistic. Just because the project has not been reduced that much. Obviously hard to determine but also cost inflation comes into play so I think we are probably closer to $2.5Bn. On the NPV I am with you on your range.
Uplift vs the PEA or uplift vs what?
So the PEA was 3 years ago and things have changed significantly since then. The PEA has $2.7Bn as the pre production capex figure. Is it fair to assume that the cost will be fairly similar / slightly lower now given cost inflation since 2019 i.e. we will see a similar capex figure now. Not sure on the NPV because it is very much relies on the copper and gold prices used in the model. But I probably would expect an NPV of around $3.5Bn which would be 15-25% below the PEA NPV. Any views on this appreciated.
So Keith remained on the board or not?
What was the reason?
Nobody cares about this Rio announcement. The reason why they don't bring out the PFS can have multiple reasons but clearly if the reason is that new CEO came in and he needs to get comfortable then ffs they should have brought in the CEO much earlier and not the last minute.
Sometimes I find another world
Inside my mind
When I realise
The crazy things we do
It makes me feel ashamed to be alive
It makes me wanna run away and hide
It's all 'bout the PFS
It's all 'bout the dum dum da da dum dum
I don't think It's funny
To see us fade away
It's all 'bout the PFS
It's all 'bout the dum dum da da dum dum
And I think we got it all wrong anyway
We find strange ways of showing
Them how much we really care
When in fact
We just don't seem to care at all
And this pretty world
Is getting out of hand
So tell me how we fail to understand?
It's all 'bout the PFS