Member Info for iWantThatOne

H2 looks ok, I reckon. 73-103k ozs at current gold price and the AISCs given, IF they can deliver. They must have a decent view of how it’s playing out, given we’re quarter way through H2. And whilst more debt has been taken on, it’s good to see the debt payments are indeed being rescheduled and there are no plans for an equity raise. The RNS doesn’t look great in the H1 rear view mirror but it’s definitely a game of two halves. Q3 results now crucial.

I think we’ll find on Friday that Kou has reached nameplate, that KEUG is making good progress and that Yan will have been broadly ok in Q2. That would all be excellent. The bigger uncertainty for me is where we are with the balance sheet, rescheduled debt payments and working capital. I do feel there is the possibility of a “soft landing” here.

A mere 54k shares sold today so today’s pull back largely related to the market rout of the largest tech stocks in the US I suspect.

I suspect some of this is related to the routing of the largest tech shares in the US, but who knows?

Quite simply I think someone is selling down. This afternoon there’s just a few larger sales amounting to 46k shares. By contrast all the buys are small. Given how tightly shares are held, we all know this tends to have a disproportionate effect on the SP.

Haha, what nonsense Monty.

Someone offloading today? 180k shares sold. No obvious reason so soon after the positive trading update and on-track for consensus earnings. A top up opportunity.

Dartron - the loss of £3.9m you quote is after non-cash items, notably amortization and depreciation relating mostly to previous acquisitions. This is not the best way to examine the health of the business. Instead look at EBITDA - revenue of £106.6m, less cost of sales relating to that revenue £88.9m, less admin expenses of £15.9m gives position EBITDA of £2.3m. Hey presto, the company makes money from its everyday activities! And this will only increase as things get back to normal.

A large amount of costs are proportionate to servicing the contracts (£88.9m) but the admin expenses (think “head office costs”) are mostly fixed. So as more new business flows in, that figure of £15.9m will not increase pro-rata and so more will flow to the bottom line. Thus EBITDA will grow at a faster rate than revenue. This is “operational leverage”. TLY is now in a good position to see its profitability to grow nicely provided the commissioners turn on the taps again and issue contracts. A modest £15m extra revenue could add £2.5m+ to EBITDA and suddenly things look healthy again.

In terms of cash available, it is low but the RNS states “Based on existing cash balances, underlying performance and cash flows generated from operating activities, the Directors believe that the Group has sufficient resources to be able to meet its obligations as they fall due for a period of at least 12 months….”. So a) sufficient cash, b) no capital needs to be raised.

I see the financial illiterates are out in force again today. “Surely a raise incoming” - when the company is making cash profits, is a going concern and has no need for new capital to implement new initiatives. And Dartron - do you have any clue about operational leverage - how net margins will improve in line with extra new business, given that fixed costs are covered?

Really, whoever is paying these trolls to try to get the sp down should do a better job in recruiting them. Their quality has just gone down and down.

Aside from any organic growth, Shinez should have added c$18m in revenue and $1.5m in EBITDA, given the acquisition completed at the end of April.

Yes agree to all that. Some more analysis - EBITDA/Revenue was 4.4%, 4.8% and 5.1% for FY21,22,23. It dipped to 2.1% for FY24 but will be 4.1% for FY25 on the guidance given today. A good recovery in my view and on the path back to where we were several years ago.

EBITDA peaked at £6.89m in FY 23, so the guided £3.5m is half way back to that high. Remember the SP was up to 40p around then with some brokers having sp targets of 70p. So with good execution in this coming year and growth at least at guided levels, I can see the sp heading back up nicely.

We don’t know what happened to the CFO, it’s entirely possible her remuneration was too high for the size of business TLY was becoming as it “right-sized”, or she preferred to work in high-growth environments - who knows? Not relevant.

So much trolling on this site. The business is in good shape and I think they’ve done an excellent job to reposition the organization in what must have been the most difficult period it has experienced. Growth will clearly come as the NHS commissioners start to make decisions at last (who on earth are these eejits who say “I don’t know where growth will come from???” Duh). At 10p share price the projected FY25 EV/EBITDA is about 6, which is very modest and IMO likely to be exceeded, given the caution in the guidance. Also much scope for margin to grow given the company is pursuing further efficiencies. A clear Hold in my opinion.

It seems a perfectly sensible time for AB to ride off into the sunset, even if he wasn’t hankering to go back to Oz. AFC is on the cusp of turning from an R&D company into a commercial one, so different skills required (though tbf I think he’s done a good job on all fronts). There’s an opportunity now to get a real heavyweight - someone who can lead the company through the next phase of its evolution and turn it into a global leader.

I’ve thought that the company can always sell Dugbe if really under the cosh. Even a fire sale would raise sufficient to halve the debt - though I believe DB would rather raise equity than sell Dugbe.

I’m desperate to know what is happening to the debt schedule. We’re told the bank is very supportive, so with a bit of luck a new schedule has been agreed with no penalties other than the interest continuing to roll up. If not, or if Kor is still taking its time, or the contract miner issues have come to an unsatisfactory conclusion - an equity raise coming?

Happy with those figures - surprised to see no positive reaction (yet). In line with market consensus, on track for full year, all positive, strong pipeline, net cash looks fine. As previously stated, if $12m EBITDA expectation last year was worthy of 180p sp then the forecast $16.8m should give 200p+.

So little news flow, but some of that is dictated by partners who ask for deals not to be communicated. I’m not expecting much to happen SP-wise until interims.

There’s no deal to be done I’m afraid, Driving. AVO directors are in denial, they’re down in the bunker issuing the same holding RNS every month (just two days to go!) in the misguided belief that “investors” are still trying to work through the fine details of a deal. They’ll keep going until the very last second, when they are legally required to call it a day.

Why wouldn’t the market reaction be positive? Strong momentum through Q1, business fully funded….I was hoping to see those two things confirmed and they have, so I’m very content.

Bango’s house broker has ‘24 EBITDA at $16.8m based on $53.5m revenue. Only three months in, I suspect all we will hear is “meeting expectations”, though it’d be great to hear a bullish statement. And yes, at that level of profit I’d hope we go past 180p in due course, given last year’s target was c$12m. It’s be good too to quash any concerns about cash.

“AFC are miles and miles off selling products…”. Absolute rubbish. They’re open to any orders coming through Speedy Hire, TAMGO or any other relationship they have, and these orders can come through at any time. And competitors “flooding the market” with their own products? Oh yes, just a few years for them to build and test something comparable (if they can) and convince construction firms that their product is as good as AFC’s. The *only* issue here is that the switch from diesel generators will take several years. Meanwhile AFC has clear market leadership and should continue to stay well ahead of any new entrants.