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The papers seem to think that the loss of IHT relief for AIM companies will happen and that CGT will go up by just a few percentage points. This budget can’t come soon enough to bring some certainty. Whilst some demand may be dampened (though maybe most of those who object so much have already sold), none of this changes the fundamentals. TIG is still great value IMO.

Once again - Q3 results are not that interesting. The only thing of real relevance is how much of the loan repayment came from the $20m new loan and how much, if any, from operations. If results are bad then more capital will be needed. Note, though, that as new loans are mostly going to repay existing loans, net debt is only increasing incrementally - the main change being that CIG has taken over some of the debt from Coris. CIG is clearly content to lend money rather than have an equity raise, so you can forget a placing. The possibility of a “gold loan note” and the possible imminent sale of Dugbe if necessary reinforce this.

In the end this is really quite simple - if HUM can get both mines up to full operational capacity soon (and they’ve done all the hard work) then the future is good.

Other posts I’ve seen suggest that a possible removal of IHT relief for AIM shares and possible increase in CGT in the forthcoming budget is leading to some sales - either permanently away from AIM in the case of IHT or just temporarily to lock in current CGT rates. Sounds plausible. I’d like to think there’d be a resurgence in buys post-budget if these explanations have legs.

I just can’t get my head round this share price. I can only think it’s because the market has no confidence they’ll meet market expectations. But even if they did miss by a tad, next year should be a leap forward again, based on the rate of growth of the DVM business - both new deals and growth in existing. They could easily be looking at another $10m on EBITDA next year, which would be an EV/EBITDA multiple of about 4x.

What happened in Q3 is now irrelevant Punter - why are you so obsessed with it? Extra debt has been taken out to shore up the B/S and cover whatever shortfall there was. It’s now all about the future, starting with Q4 - as Dan Betts keeps saying. He’s right for once.

Question: why is Pasofino raising money for “working capital” (which we know is to optimise the DFS) when it’s supposedly due to be sold for $75m within weeks? It’d be wasted money.

Answer: it won’t be sold for $75m.

Four years solid to clear the debts? Are you mad?! Before the latest $20m loan agreement (and potential Dugbe sale) Cannacord Genuity had HUM in a net cash positive position by end-25. It’s easy to see how - 180k ozs next year (not even 200k). $1500 per oz cash cost (not even the quoted $1400). POG easing to $2500. That gives $180m in 2025. (Those are my calcs, not CG’s). Those sunlit uplands seem a mile away at the moment but by end-24, who knows?

It would be madness to break up the business and sell the mines at this stage. They are all worth *so* much more if they can just start performing properly! So in 16m time we’ll have FY25 EBITDA to base valuations on, and the business (or each mine separately) can be valued at 2.5 or 3xEBITDA like its peers, less debt. But to do that now after this year’s terrible performance would be disastrous.

Exclusivity agreements are not binding contracts for sale and so do not lock in either party to committing to the sale at a certain price.

Incorrect, Nom, the surge in gold price has led to interest in Dugbe, so we’ve been told. This is a recent phenomenon. And the current POG overcomes those (overstated) inhibitors you mention. The DFS is also being further optimised, the value is going up even more. Anyone who looked at Dugbe years ago and rejected it is out of date.

HUM won’t be allowing Dugbe to be sold for $75m, given the majority shareholder (HUM) considers the offer “derisory”. I suspect the current bidder already knows they’ll have to up their bid considerably. HUM are just using it to set a benchmark and flush out better offers.

Good to see reiteration of expectation of hitting FY targets today. Singer says:

“Investors’ focus on Bango’s near-term profitability is of course legitimate, but in-so-doing, this has driven the stock to levels, which undervalues the company’s strong top-line progress, especially that of its DVM business, which grew ARR +130% y/y to $12.9m, thanks to growing uptake from blue-chip logos, such that 3 of the largest 5 US telco’s are now customers. Not only does this demonstrate DVM is an enterprise grade solution, but also highlights Bango’s growth potential – both with existing customers and the broader market. Highlighting this, we believe there is significant growth potential, just from existing logos and - alongside a consistent DCB business - $80m/revs is an achievable medium-term target. “

And “Providing BGO successfully executes in H2, then the optics should radically change, and so too the share price. “

One thing is that the market may find itself slightly confused about how to value a company that combines both online presence and online marketing. There are different peer groups for each segment with different P/E ratings. Not terribly difficult to work through but it’s still a slightly confused message.

Just looked at the figures again and there should be optimism about the company hitting its annual targets. Adding 6% growth (per H1) to H2 ‘23 payments revenue would get us to $34.6m, to which we add the H1 ‘24 DVM etc revenue of $7.7m. That’s $42.3m in total, meaning we need c$11m DVM etc in H2. That should be achievable given the pace of growth, illustrated by the ARR. In FY ‘22 ARR was $5.0m against revenue of $10.2m. In FY ‘23 the corresponding figures were $8.8m and $13.4m. At HY 24 the ARR was $12.9m - suggesting the year’s revenue could easily be high teens, as required. I think once the annual trading statement is released in January ‘25 it’ll be game on again here. Until then I expect there’s a lot of caution about whether they can do it. Not helped by the company’s pathetic PR machine.

The most important part of today’s RNS is that it did not say that H2 targets have been compromised, as it would have to say if true. Therefore the min 73k Oz target remains, an amount which I am comfortable with. 30k ozs in Q3 and 43k in Q4, for example, sounds plausible, given expected improvements at both Yan and Kor.

The lack of news flow does not inspire with this company. If someone decides to sell, there’s nothing to cause anyone to jump in to counter the slide. Expecting a significant move upward in Q4 if they remain on track for the full year.

If some folk got a bit “carried away” about a Dugbe windfall it’s because there have been quite a few sale comparators announced recently - which Dugbe has now fallen well short of. I can’t imagine Pasofino shareholders are particularly pleased either - to get back only c$30m after they funded the DFS. Ah well, it is what it is. It shouldn’t detract from the main event - being tantalisingly close to all sorts of milestones like KEUG, Kor full production and up to 50ozs pq. Get that right and we’re laughing.

Fully agree. Even more impressive will be the results if marketing rates return to more typical figures in due course. And the benefit of Shinez is not expected to be felt fully until next year.

From Times today:

London’s listed goldmining sector may shrink further yet. Rob Crayford, who co-manages the £111 million CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income fund, says that the goldmining sector, which remains fragmented, is entering a new wave of consolidation.

We are seeing some of the lowest multiples on record for goldminers, and M&A is an attractive way to buy assets that have not yet fully participated in the rally in the gold price,” he said. “There is also the benefit of having a larger market cap and getting a more premium rating.”

Andrew Breichmanas, an analyst at the broker Stifel, says the City’s remaining goldminers — such as Endeavour Mining, Thor Explorations, Hummingbird Resources and Resolute Mining — remain relatively cheap in part because of their size compared with North American majors.

The offer is for the whole of Pasofino, ie Dugbe, so the value to HUM is presumably 53% of $75m. In fact 47% I think due to the Liberian Gov’s share. So that’d be about $35m for HUM (3.4p per share).

$75m is $23 per oz in the 3.3M Ozs in Measured &Indicated category. That seems woefully short to me, given the comparators noted here recently.

And “Exclusivity” surely just means that the bidder is the most promising of the lot - despite what I think is a lowball offer - and will be given access to detailed information with a view to submitting a refined offer. It does not mean Pasofino are happy to settle for $75m. I’m sure HUM wouldn’t.