Member Info for Ivyspivey

Bermuda totally correct regarding TD valuation.Any broker will use standard metrics for consistency and then they will add caveats such as cautious and conservative estimates to underpin their approach.
They can’t base any valuation on potential as they use a risk adjusted DCF model to establish a comparative appriach.You can just imagine how much credence any “ valuation” would have if it was based on subjective comments expressed by say the CEO.
That is why the other value model chosen is peer valuation which is likely to be more subjective as it reflects what someone us actually prepared to pay.
But of course it is difficult to get direct peer comparisons. Based on LD credibility and comments personally I believe that the standard risk models do not apply to SCLP say on Modi trial and that is where we as individuals may see additional value and can gain value where we see the gap.
However as individuals we all have different judgements on value from the TD approach based on standard metrics to a range of above standard metrics to the ridiculous imo approach of some who claim no. No risk at all.

Morning Konar/EE,
Consider both your posts contain valid points imo in that you would expect the mRNA Vax like most current ones to elicit a much greater nAB response than Covidity as they concentrate on the SGP whereas as Konar says we dint know the full facts of the T Cell response and in particular generated by the NCAP as we know that is the most anticipated response.
Whilst Konar does make the valid point about Omicron specific comparisons as EE says a peer reviewed paper is necessary to provide wider validation of the results.
They are very positive results but once again wider judgements about how positive they are related to other Vax again I think we need to await more validation by peer review or a commercial deal.
Remember and this is the main reason why I consider a partner deal is not imminent is that as 2 RNSs have now said the competitive landscape has totally changed and you have to ask why a partner would invest some £80-100m as a minimum unless the SCLP Vax offers proven promise of having a unique USP say as either a Universal Vax or superior booster over current abdand current a Vax in development that it can then develop as a commercial success.
That is what I think is missing from the RNS so no “ delighted comments on results from SCLP or any reference to ongoing partner discussions after probably well over a year of “partner searching”.
Have not looked at RNS feed and would be very happy to have egg in my face if a partner deal is announced

Evening WF,
The Covid Vax trials were very positive as per the RNS comments though I do attribute a lot more intrinsic value to the validation of Avidmab and needle free for wider purposes than specifically for the Covid results.
I merely point out I consider it extremely difficult to draw any definitive conclusions about the Vax being superior to other current Vax based on the info contained in the RNS.
As for needing a partner SCLP have been saying this was the strategy for over a year now so no surprise about current statement.
As with any phase 1 it is much more about safety than efficacy and the confirmation of a partner deal, which I have already said I don’t expect,due to current environment, but hope to be proved wrong.
Thanks fir opportunity to clarify my position.

Absolutely Ray we know it is the S GP that is the main source of the nAB response and that is in common with most of current Covid Vax and that it is the potential T Cell response of both the S and in particular the N which is what is if most interest regarding efficacy.
My main point remains is with such small cohorts and the varying populations and lack of additional Ig data then it is very difficult to evaluate exactly how positive the results are compared to current Vax.

Evening Ruck,
As you say such extremely low cohorts make the drawing of too many conclusions and especially comparative ones.
You put an extra layer on there of saying the majority of the AB response seems to have come from the Spike GLycoprotein rather than the N protein and that is the main benefit of using the SCLP Vax as compared with the others.
Akso no mention of exact nature of AB response so again hard to draw any meaningful conclusions from current data

Yes Crumbs it is the most clinically developed platform and a few years back RG assigned value of SCLP as being 90% IB and 10% Modi but a lot has changed since then.
I just think it has been surpassed by Modi and in fairness by other technologies in the interim.We all know the compelling results of SCIB1 but no commercialisation and yes if the Combo trial proves very successful then it could open up another opportunity but we need to wait for the results before getting too excited.
The making of the Covid Vax has proved very beneficial to SCLP in proof of concept of IB I as an infectious disease platform/ the proof of Avidmab and needle free route of admin and at a relatively low cost due to Innovate grants etc and of course was initiated at a time of great need.
However the world has moved on and the competitive landscape changed both in Covid Vax and in oncology And SCLP have made the correct strategic decision imo.
I don’t think a partner will materialise but that is purely by own thoughts and I would be delighted to be proved wrong but there was nothing in the RNS to make me more confident in that assessment but the learnings from the trial to SCLP will prove very beneficial imo

Morning Ruck,
You are absolute correct re your comments about a partner which we know has been the intention from SCLP from a considerable time ago so but as well as providing the funding to develop the product it is the external validation of the results that us perhaps the most important aspect.
We know these are positive results but most are based on small cohorts and there have been so many changes to the trial protocol it is difficult to independently draw any major conclusions certainly on efficacy but safety seems well established so that is very good.
As SCLP has said the Covid landscape has changed considerably so the bar will have been raised re attracting a partner imo.As SCLP have said the pivotal conclusion from the RNS is the proof of Avidmab and needle free working well and the implications for the oncology and potential ID uses and that is a huge positive for SCLP.
Still think it is the Modi outcome that will largely determine the future here with the added excitement of the Glycan assets rather than IB but very happy to be proved wrong on that.

Am NW based Burble but born and bred in Northumberland

Morning Burble,
Was always advised to never mention the monkey on trips to Hartlepool but a funny story if unkind.
Minor never heard of Sand dancers but wrong side of river for me but Marston Rock and great fish and chips were always good reasons to visit S Shields

TF a Mackem is from Sunderland or a Wearsider whereas Geordies are Tynesider’s.
Loved the James Bolam character

No worries Bermuda and sure there will be lots of interest in successful Modi results but like yourself think it is much more likely to come from elsewhere rather than likes of Merck

Hi Bermuda/Kashdog

Don’t think RM are in anymore but have not trawled through whole list

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mrk/institutional-holdings

Morning again Burble thanks for your input as helps to keep us focused on what can and can’t be done.

Afternoon,
Chester as you say interesting to hear of Bion Tech interest in Moditope as strategically and culturally it is much more of a natural fit than some if the usual other suspects mentioned

Thanks Avi8r

Morning Bermuda appears SCLP are not presenting at Biotech Showcase

Morning and HNY JPM agenda is only released to attendees.
Presume in past at least JC attended as was on his doorstep but not sure if he has gone.

Evening anyone know anything about the public info report on 31/12/22

https://opencorporates.com/filings/1158132618

Morning found a thread where some right blasts from the past.
Hope all are doing well even that Billy fella-Coggy just rolls on Old Man river and have seen Fkakey on other share board.
Thanks Jim,Looed and all others for their efforts along with FSGG.
Have a great festive break all

Thanks C7 and Rigga hope your recovery goes well and went through similar thing in 2020.
Agree with all sentiments that health and happiness vs wealth and success of SCLP science vs financial gains due to rising SP are not mutually exclusive and certainly the 2nd part of the equation are intrinsically linked.
If the science is successful the rewards will follow and enjoy the journey as the destination will take care of itself so whatever your priorities or dreams are in 2023 I hope they come true