Member Info for ivorgriffiths

The receivables are being received. There are enough funds due to PFC for them to trade through. But a D4E could be good for the share price if they get more contracts as well and financial management is improved. Confidence is key. An end to Middle East tensions and the Ukraine war would be handy. This could run for six months before we have a clear idea of what is what. It is a risky long term investment that at today’s share price could lead to losses of 90% or gains of 1000%.

@maxdba

Events could put a spoke in the works as regards trading through. But the creditors want cash not shares so will wait. PFC’s last accounts showed 1.5 billion $ in receivables and there are asset sales up coming. But even trading through to stable liquidity a D4E may still be a good option at, say, 20-30 per share. With no debt the shares would be easy for creditors to sell and head up to 40 - 50 if the order book is cashing in steadily and more business is won.

Short sellers reducing steadily reflects the sentiment that as far as trading through goes: so far so good.

Given the likelihood of war in the middle east, recession in the

US and plunging stock markets trading through the cashflow crunch will be a miracle but if they manage to negotiate a good debt restructuring deal that is when a takeover is likely. Not anytime soon either way. We would have an RNS if creditors vote 75% for a CVA and then the BOD can try and get shareholder and High Court approval but even if the RNS dropped tomorrow you are talking Spring 2025 before it is in place. And then there are events dear boy, events. Peace in Ukraine and the Middle East if Trump wins will see a massive rebound in positive sentiment. Harris wins? Oh dear!

PC

Idiot. Read everything properly.

Pokerchips

I could see that happening on the figures available. Thereafter assuming they keep getting business in the only way is up. I think they will be a takeover target thereafter, as their sector consolidates. Interesting though.

This is the shape of things to come.

Pokerchips

Well, the deal would need to have been done by the end of June to D4E by the end of September 2024. Any conflict of interest would have to be avoided but Asfari could just have retired.

In any event the liquidity position seems to be okay until the end of November now. Anyway you look at it this is a positive development for PFC continuing to trade at all and equity in general. This is reflected in the rise in price. Events could screw it all up but still better now than four months ago.

They do not want to create their own short squeeze by buying 50,000,000 shares in half an hour when the average volume is sub five million. They seem to get advance warning of positive RNS so they will likely buy into a positive RNS. The day before I should have said. Sorry.

Asfari resigning may simply be him retiring. But that is not likely. More likely that he has some plan afoot that requires him to be at arm’s length from the BOD. If you read page 152 of the Going Concern statement it is clear the performance guarantee issue was the main existential threat to Petrofac’s continuing at all. It is equally clear from Friday’s RNS, that was rightly celebratory on tone, that the existential threat has gone. The Going Concern Statement must now be considered out of date and moot.

As regards the D4E. It is equally clear from the going concern statement that they then believed they needed $400 million for these guarantees, could only get it from cashflow (in so many words) and the cashflow would have to be generated by further lending underpinned by a D4E. Furthermore the D4E deal would have to be done by the end of JUNE and implemented by September or there would be an insolvency. Not now it doesn’t!

Asfari will have known that the business was sound, had a huge backlog of 1.5 billion in receivables and this needed to be realised to survive into the future without a D4E. That is his crowning achievement and no mean feat: he saved the business by avoiding a D4E AND insolvency.

The Going Concern Statement is now redundant. There needs to be 75% agreement amongst creditors, a vote of shareholders and High Court approval. Never going to happen. Not anymore.

Why aren’t shorters closing? They will next time a truly positive RNS appears and they can do so without creating their very own short squeeze. Why are bonds junk? Uncertainty as to when they will get paid. The creditors are allowing Petrofac to trade through as this is the only way they get paid in cash.

Those who point at the going concern statement whilst disregarding all of the above are wrong to say there will be a D4E at 4p. They just want that. Tough potatoes mate!

I think it will be 18 months of hard slog and a gentle rise over time with peaks and troughs. Those with short positions are in a bind if one bails they probably all will so some will get burnt. Like the rest of us they are doing nothing until the dust settles.

Paul Curtis is talking nonsense just ignore him he knows nothing about insolvency law or corporate governance. The alternatives are an insolvency or trading through.

Paul Curtis is jacked off he put all his money into discounted in the hopes of a swift D4E and s bucket load of cut price shares. Tough potatoes. NOT going to happen. 75% of creditors are needed to agree this in principle, then the price needs to resolved then a shareholder vote then High Court approval. Six months minimum from agreement. Given the number of lenders and jurisdictions they operate in they will only go down this route if there s no other option at all.

Paul spouts on about GKN which is not the same at all. Not so long ago he was hoping PFC would not be able to resolve the performance guarantee issue. He keeps waffling on about the going concern statement and a video conference. Last year’s news. Things have moved on. They ate taking on more staff. They are providing reports to the lenders. The lenders want CASH. They believe they can get it.

Paul, get over it, the chances of a D4E grow smaller every passing day. The fact the BOD said there might be one 4, 5 or 6 months ago is meaningless in today’s world. They ate trading through a cashflow crunch brought on by bad financial management as evidenced by the massive receivables backlog that is spelled out in the accounts.

READ THE ACCOUNTS!!!!

Realitybytes

Without 75% creditor support there will be no D4E. That's just the law and so it’s a fact. As it stands there cannot legally be a D4E. For whatever reason a majority of creditors do not want that. This is another fact. Therefore it is either insolvency or trading through. Insolvency is a remote possibility. Clearly the BOD is maintaining minimum levels of liquidity, it is paying the wages and it is meeting its contractual requirements to customers. No mean feat.

If there can be no D4E legally, if no creditors commences insolvency proceedings then what is left? Getting in the receivables, getting more contracts, honouring contracts and trading through.

How is that ramping?

Things change, things fall apart and things come together.

Unless you are happy to lose all your money on the basis there is a chance - only a chance mind - to make a lot of money buy some shares. If you cannot afford a loss don’t do that. But definitely don’t buy the junk bonds.

Confluence

Things change. Simple as that. What goes up comes down and what goes down comes up. It’s about timing. I am not telling anyone to buy or sell. I suggest holding.

Paul Curtis has no idea what he is talking about. No one is ramping. This moron has been waffling on about bonds and D4E for a year. He has no idea how to read accounts, refuses to believe the evidence of his own eyes and has the opinion that resolving the massive issue of the performance guarantee default changes nothin! It did - the share price went up!

What does this cretin think is happening? Does he think the business is on hold? They are expanding the workforce ffs. There are a minority of creditors who would consider a D4E which means they cannot have one. It is either trade through and get in the receivables and slowly repair the balance sheet or insolvency. That was the actual message of the going concern statement: either all agree to a D4E (on the BOD’s terms), wind us up or wait for the cash.

I have read the going concern stuff and everything else and here we are - like I said we would be - with no D4E and still trading through.

DYOR, listen to Curtis and bail or do whatever you like.

My view is that it os a risky share, events can screw it up, but equally they can help, once the balance sheet is sorted and IF they get more business then the shares could go through the roof and a takeover may occur before that. Or the shares could tank if events conspire against us.

I do not think Curtis’ advice to sell is sound on many levels.

A D4E is unlikely unless 75% of creditors vote for a CVA.

PC

Dude, wtf you on about mate?

No, no not the going concern statement. No, you read the ACCOUNTS dude. The ACCOUNTS. A podcast? What? No, the accounts is what you read.

The going concern statement is completely out of date. The numbers are clear: receivables are such that trading through is a viable option. Banks want cash, charges, interest and fees. They deal in cash not oil and gas. They want money not shares.

The performance guarantee issue was the key to confidence. Less than half the creditors are prepared to consider a D4E option. And only CONSIDER IT. Why? It’s a lazy solution when the problem is purely liquidity caused by crap financial management. They were not getting the cash in and now they are.

Banks want cash and while they won’t wait forever for it if thir due diligence tells them they can indeed get paid in CASH, the. that is what will happen.

That is what is happening. Trading through it. It’s not rocket science mate it’s just business. What do you not understand in that? Things change, events occur time passes.

No D4E now. Tough potatoes mate.

Ladybug2024

Exactly what I have been trying to explain to Mr Curtis. He is like a rabbit in the headlights and cannot see beyond that narrow view of a D4E being the only solution. There is a fortune in receivables due. Once they are financially on an even keel the share price will begin a steady climb. PFC is obviously well undervalued and as it becomes more obvious a D4E is not an option that will change very quickly.

I often anticipate having a sh@g with a bird only to be bitterly disappointed. Or think I want a shat when I don’t really.

The share price at 10 anticipated a D4E, your crappy bonds anticipate a haircut you say. They could anticipate getting paid a year late as well. If you cannot sell your house is it worth nil? No, it’s just no one wants to buy it.

They are trading through, less than 50% of creditors will agree a CVA and none of them are going to foreclose and issue proceedings. What is left? Trading through dummy. Getting the cash in - and there is a lot of it.

What do you not understand about that dude? Are you thick or just really, really stoopid? LOL. Pity about your silly bonds though, eh? Not worth a carrot for a year at least, maybe two😂😂😂

The alternative arrangements for the performance guarantee was obviously not cash. So in saving maybe one or two hundred million liquidity has improved. Receivables will be chased and received and as cashflow and confidence returns so will more business. It’s a medium to longterm game.

The possibility of a D4E is receding. Creditors are holding out for cash that may be a long time coming, but in their minds that is better than volatile penny shares.

If the price solidifies at 15 - 17 that is positive. The creditors have the BOD’s faces to the fire and the BOD are working the problem. Credit where credit is due.

Just glad I never bought any crappy bonds…LOL

pc

moron you’re talking out of your **** mate.

The only reason the BOD would all of a sudden start being positive and releasing good news regularly is to fight a takeover and jack the price right up. But the nearer the BOD get to a solution the more attractive PFC becomes. But that is good news for us.

My only qualm is if there is a short squeeze tomorrow should I cash out and hope for the usual dip and buy back in or just stick. If it gets near 36 it will be tempting to cash out but I still think a takeover is likely at 100 or more. Long term the shares will go much higher as the world economy recovers. At least it is a good problem to have.

Glad I never bought any bonds though. he he he.