Member Info for ivorgriffiths

There are many automated buys at £40-50,000. Could be a short squeeze but the market is the market. Financially Distressed energy sector infrastructure company with good track record for its services but really crap BOD. Rock bottom share price, significant medium and long term value and potential for growth. The market won’t let a business like that fail it will fix it. £1 to £1.50 initial offer. The story is a typical precursor, the paradigm is the paradigm. Takeover is inevitable as is the departure of the BOD.

Analysis of available data dude. PFC ADR up 1000% was the giveaway. But the market sector has excellent long term prospects and Petrofac offers real long term value at a bargain price, even at £1.50 which is likely, is cheap. A D4E was never really likely.

Thank f^#k for that.

Takeover.

27,259,000 traded and a 37% increase in the price.

Hostile takeover. It’s so obvious. Wood and PFC merged is good solid long term business in two solid infrastructure businesses straddling both sectors that are suffering financial distress. There is significant long term value in dominating the sector and significant profits to generate for decades to come. A takeover is just logical and sound business.

But obviously the takeover offer of £0.75 per share will feature in an RNS before the 16th June deadline and save the day. The BOD will reject it and settle at £1. It’s so obvious.

No, they won’t go bust within ten days but Petrofac will go bust in ten days time if they lose that contract on 16th June because they have insufficient liquidity to pay the guarantee fee, see? Jesus is actually dead.

I would think the takeover approach will happen next week at around £0.75 per share. If not insolvency looms large. Merging Wood and Petrofac would be a solid long term strategy to control that sector, Middle East money most likely.

If nothing concrete develops before 16th June Petrofac will be bust and the creditors will proceed to wind Petrofac up.

10 days before a wipe out. Sad, but true. I won’t sell but then again I wouldn’t buy either.

Petrofac has been losing money hand over fist for two years, they admit the legacy contracts are loss making, they are $100,000,000 in default and only have 41% of creditors convinced to do a deal. They have until the 16th June to guarantee a major new contract and are having to request credit extensions on a week by week basis. The BOD are useless so any takeover will want them gone and would be hostile.

For all that I am not selling. A takeover is likely but after any renegotiation of the debt and restructuring. September earliest really.

They have 11 days before they lose a massive contract. They are defaulting to the tine of $100,000,000. They only have tje support of 41% of creditors. The auditors disclaimed the going concern statement made by the board. Insolvency is a real possibility. A takeover is the only realistic possibility but The BOD know they will have to go. Sadly, the BOD only think about the BOD and a break up, which is discussed in the going concern statement is probably best for some of them. In other words, insolvency is considered by the BOD to be a solution of sorts. £0.20 per share? How?

Venterra Group is privately owned, they would need backing from Apollo. Giving the company back to the man who built it makes sense. There are rumours but nothing solid. The issue has always been the debt and the majority of creditors are holding out. It seems to be a game of chicken. The ADR price has dropped since the RNS but is still relatively high. Clutching at straws maybe.

They have 14 days or they get wound up. When reading the going concern statement ( the auditors disclaim it ) it is clear the refinancing deal is not approved by more than 40% of creditors. A takeover is the only option. The BOD know this and the fact the RNS seems to suggest an end to the suspension is nigh may be a sign that a takeover is in the offing. It’s that or insolvency.

Relisting would be positive. The PFC ADR price and small increase in bond prices are positive. If I had bonds would I sell? No. Why? Because a large majority of backlog orders are from last year and this year, the creditors are forbearing on $100,000,000 of default and the bond price is steady, PFC ADR is up 6 or 700% and it is a financially distressed infrastructure business with a crap BOD. The suspension of trading was contrived in my view - to protect the BOD. Aiden is under a passing bus but the takeover is still hostile to the current BOD.

My hope is that in mid June or possibly next week the BOD resign and a takeover is announced. The RNS reads like a long goodbye.

The auditors are disclaiming the going concern statement and have not signed off on it. One lender is extending credit facilities that are on default on a week by week non-binding basis. They could pull the plug anytime without notice. I solvency and a corporate break up is openly discussed and a real possibility. More so than a “restructuring” which will not be attractive to the majority of the creditors who have not signed up on the speculative “agreement”. The liquidity they discuss is likely to be gone by mid June. They concede that if there is no movement by mid June they will no longer be a going concern. They would need to secure an IVA at that point or voluntarily wind up.

Like I say and have said it is a takeover or bust.

Bummer.

Unless there is a takeover

Having read the entire going concern and associated documents it is clear that they have two weeks to work this out or they will be wound up. I doubt the shares will be traded before then. But miracles happen. Those with a short position score big time if insolvency proceedings are issued. There does seem to be some liquidity and saleable assets. But they are defaulting big time and surviving week to week.

Two weeks to save themselves. Don’t see it happening to be brutally honest.

Credit_Limit

On reading the going concern report it is grim. I am not sure that legally they are a going concern. They are defaulting to the tune of nearly £100,000,000. One lender has them on a week by week extension and could pull the plug anytime. In addition they need a lot of cash for the middle of June to protect that contract. They do not have all lenders or bond holders on board and they need this finalised by mid June to implement in September. They concede that insolvency could be without notice at anytime. Realistically if there is no interested third party willing to take this on the company is bust. Indeed, I would say it has been bust for a year. At least. The current BOD will - or should be - fired. Suspension looks contrived to me. It prevented a third party buying shares for a hostile approach. This could explain the PFC ADR spike.

A hostile approach is needed or we’re all f%#ked right up the…sideways. Bondholders might get a few pence in the pound but equity looks to be f^%ked either way.

Cresit_Limit

I agree. The fact that creditors have any faith at all in a D4E with the existing BOD is hard to believe. The security and fire sale value must be virtually worthless. The standoff between the BOD and creditors probably reflects the fact that the creditors require new management. If they lose that contract in June I would suspect at least one creditor will go for a winding up order. If any kind of due diligence discloses that the BOD have made the classic error of chasing turnover at the expense of profit the business is bust. Sadly, given the BOD seems to be below par, a takeover is our only hope as this will be predicated upon a profitable backlog. The PFC ADR rise is curious though…

The bonds may have taken a haircut prematurely. Once it is cut you cannot always get it to grow back. It is possible the bondholders have been shafted and this is why there is no movement.

The bonds may have taken a haircut prematurely. Once it is cut you cannot always get it to grow back. It os possible the bondholders have been shafted.