Member Info for ivorgriffiths

PC

Moron. Everything has changed.

PC/europhil/whoever

Banks and creditors are lenders not investors. They want cash with interest, charges and fees. They are regulated to lend not invest. They want certainty, due diligence, weekly management accounts. THEY WANT CASH. Not difficult is it son? Not really. The bond price reflects the short term prospects of getting paid back in cash. That’s all. In the medium term they will get paid in cash. Read the accounts, the numbers are audited numbers and do not lie. $1.5 billion in receivables is why there is no D4E, and the BOD will move heaven and earth to avoid both that and a takeover. As will the lenders who want CASH not shares. The lenders will bend over backwards to get paid in cash. They do not want shares.

What do you not understand about that? Read the accounts. Learn to if you cannot understand them. The bond price and the share price are short term (hour by hour, minute by minute) indicators of firesale value. In the case of Petrofac whilst definitely a risk both are worth far more in the medium term.

It’s economics and finance dude. Innit? Eh?

The FCA are useless. And corrupt.

Once the liquidity issue is solved it’s got to be worth 150 especially if they close the Algerian deals and get more buainess.

The performance guarantees were a major issue and it has been solved without a D4E. More than half the creditors want to wait and get paid in cash. This is a major hurdle cleared and is clearly adding value to the company: customers AND creditors have confidence in Petrofac’s ability to trade through. Another contract announcement - about Algeria perhaps - would see the shares rise again and a positive liquidity announcement could see us back at 40. I was tempted to sell today and take a small profit but bought these as a long term punt looking to five bag it at least so clinging on for now.

I am not one for saying I told you so but I did, right? They are going to trade through and when they do it will be 150. It had 1.5 billion in receivables at year end. Well undervalued at the moment.

Europhil

Just do one son. No one likes you, you got no friends.

If you don’t like losing don't play. Maybe get a life.

Europhil

The only thing your post history shows is what a sad tool you actually are. Much abuse of others who dispute your intelligence and you talk about tugging yourself rather too much and bragging about how much money you have made features a lot. A vivid imagination that paints a picture of a lonely incel with no friends.

Let’s face it if you actually were successful at anything other than having a good tug you wouldn’t be such a tool. 😁

Europhil

Sad little tool, go and find that shirt of your back you lost 😭

They have and are continuing. They are not insolvent. They are owed hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars. They are maintaining liquidity at agreed levels. What part of that do you not understand? Banks deal in cash not shares, they think they can get it or they’d have pulled the plug by now.

As every week passes the likelihood of a D4E recedes. Tough potatoes fella. 😂

Europhil

You’re the loser dude and a sad one. I don’t care about you at all, what you did or why. But it does look like you lost your shirt and want everyone else to doesn’t it? Sad.

Paul

Read the data. What has actually happened? There is no damage limitation mode. The creditors want cash, they think PFC can get it. If not, then those in a position to - if any - would commence winding up proceedings. As it stands they look to be closely monitoring PFC as they carry on trading through. Why on earth would they want shares if they can get cash? I am simply reacting to events. The going concern statement and accounts show the receivables position.

This could go on for months and months. With no D4E. They need 75% not 50%. The longer they keep trading and the better the cashflow the less and less likely that there will be a D4E. There will be a financial restructure but not necessarily involving equity as no one appears to want that. Except you.😂

Exactly, no way the creditors would accept a default if PFC were considered to be insolvent. They are letting the get the receivables in and build up their liquidity until cashflow is resolved. That is about as invested in PFC as they want to be. They want cash and fees and charges. Like you say it will take time but the BOD seem to be maintaining minimum liquidity levels per the forbearance agreement. The BOD are representing that the business done on 2023 os valuable and it seems at least 49% of lenders agree with that and believe they can yet get paid. No quick buck but in the next 12 - 18 months could see 75 - 100 especially of they win more business sort the PGs and keep the cash coming in. A D4E is more likely than a takeover but it’s 50/50 they trade through it without either. Time will tell. The pointless wars are not helping anyone but events can change everything. DYOR

With respect, you need to be able to read accounts and the associated data to make informed investment decisions. A knowledge of law, finance and regulation of corporate governance are always needed. Detailed knowledge of EPC may be useful in some circumstances but these are not those circumstances. PFC are being permitted by creditors to attempt to trade through the cashflow crisis. The BOD are reporting weekly, they seem to be succeeding. They could yet fail. Those of us holding believe they will succeed. DYOR.

Lookbothways

The year end accounts and the going concern statement attached to it explain the position. The data therein shows that receivables are $1.5 billion. PFC have to produce weekly management accounts showing profit and a sustained level of liquidity. Creditors have carried out due diligence on the pipeline to satisfy their underwriters that it has significant value. I agree a takeover is unlikely. An ability to analyse financial data and read documents is needed though. PFC is a going concern, is not trading wrongfully and is currently in profit. There might be a D4E but no creditor wants shares in an insolvent business they want cash and currently believe they can get it.

Not sure what you base your opinion on but is not based on the publicly available data. DYOR

To understand the current position a background in EPC is not necessary.

The crown jewel is actually the 1.5 billion on receivables that the creditors are clearly monitoring the collection of. PFC must make weekly reports, aka management accounts, to secure the week by week extensions. The data shows that it is possible to trade through the cashflow crunch. If that was not the case PFC would be wrongfully trading and the BOD would assume personal liability. Therefore one can conclude: PFC are not insolvent, the agreed liquidity levels are being maintained out of cashflow, the creditors have carried out due diligence tests on the contracts won in 2023 and they are profitable to the extent giving them more time to come up with the cash, penalties and payments is viable and finally the creditors believe they can get paid in cash and avoid a D4E.

The data is clear. A takeover is unlikely in the short term but if PFC trade through this will change everything. A D4E may be a positive move at some point but in my view is receding in likelihood. DYOR.

They need 75% of creditors to agree a D4E. If they can get agreement they need a court order. It will take months to get a hearing even if there is agreement. The creditors do not want to start insolvency proceedings as they will be lucky to get 5%. They don’t want to own Petrofac either they want cash. While there is a glimmer of hope and while Petrofac continue to trade and collect on receivables the creditors will wait. The share price is where it is because PFC can conceivably trade through and recover. While that chan e is there the creditors will take it. Nothing will be resolved in a few weeks. Months and months and months.

The short position has hardly budged. They are waiting for the massive drop in share price following a D4E at which point they will have to close out. 47% is not the 75% needed to guarantee a CVA which is what they were talking about. Clearly the creditors do not fancy a liquidation and the extension suggests something is cooking. A D4E seems the most likely outcome but PFC are definitely dragging it out and playing for time. Also, they are talking about “improving liquidity” which suggests they have the minimum required. They are also talking about securing performance and advance payment guarantees to support current and future engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts. So, they are still very much in business and suggesting there are contracts in the pipeline.

Overall pretty neutral but not negative at least.

The FCA's Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules (DTR) mandate that listed companies must promptly disclose any inside information that directly concerns them. This includes financial results, performance indicators, major shareholdings, corporate transactions, and any other information that could significantly affect the company's share price.

Petrofac have already done this. If nothing has changed, other than perhaps that they are paying their bills from cashflow - which the data suggests that, with luck and the goodwill of satisfied customers, they can do - then nothing has materially changed. There is no need for them to satisfy the curiosity of shareholders, bondholders or journalists. They are not obliged to do that.

No news is good news.

Mind you, if a D4E was now possible as 75% of the creditors are in agreement that would have to be reported. Again, no news is good news.

We might hear nothing for months.

Shares and bonds are both moving up and down within a narrow range. This will be the case until something occurs that must legally be reported.

If they are not reporting they have paid it. Simple.

They only legally have to produce accounts and announce catastrophically bad events. Nothing else. They just don’t.