Fattyman & MontyBlonde14 Oct 2010 15:20
Good to see some rises recently - the market has not yet doomed PVCS! I am watching with interest...
Sorry for my last post, it was written in an uncharacteristic cloud of despondancy. As I always said, I think PVCS is a fantastic company, with great management and a good product in a strong & growing market.
I was admittedly quite worried from their last results that they are NOT price leaders and therefore will always be fighting to produce a cheaper product, ie. margins will always be squeezed, and profits will always be mediocre. That said, the price leader will emerge as the company that can secure the cheapest silicon wafers. PVCS seems to be on track with Bitterfeld, which will give them a big input cost advantage, and if they can capitalise on that to squeeze out competition, all the better.
Montyblonde - as far as I am aware, the manufacturing techniques used are almost entirely robotic; the labour that is used is generally quite high-tech - scientists, machinery operators and so forth. I'm not sure the Chinese will have as much of a "cheap labour" advantage as in some other, less automated, less high-tech, manufacturing techniques.
The next big wave of solar panels looks to be 5-10 years away from domestic installations; check out http://www.nanosolar.com/ which - reportedly - is literally printing solar cells onto sheets for 99c each. This will be the biggest threat to the future of PVCS - ultra cheap, very scalable nanosolar panels. The actual cost of production is tiny. Check this out, it's fascinating: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIXkB5nrEiY
Nanosolar is not yet available for domestic installation (give it 5-10 years) but even as it currently stands, it makes absolute financial sense for every home in the UK (and Europe?) with a south-facing roof to install traditional, silicon-based solar panels. Not to mention ecological sense. The only delay getting the message planted in peoples minds that they can actually make money, cut bills and save the planet, very very easily by installing solar panels. 15% ROI every year for 25+ years? I'm in.