Cenkos Note - "multiples of anything yet won to date"5 May 2022 15:55
Strong performance in Environmental division expected to continue. The final decision on the award of a significant tender in process is expected in the summer of 2022 leading to the potential for significant revenue contribution in H2/22. The size of the award is multiples of anything yet won to-date; however, there remains uncertainty over the start date, the allocation to Setcar, and the revenues that can therefore be recognised in FY22. Whilst there are no alternative solutions that can provide oil remediation efficiency comparable to Grafysorber, in the absence of visibility, we have decided not to include the potential for this award in our expectations, noting that the award would likely be transformational for the company.
? We continue to view Directa Plus as a unique opportunity in the environmental and graphene materials space as it is commercially proven, high growth and fully funded. The demand for graphene is supported by a strong market outlook with expectations for it to more than double in value over the next three years reaching more than $2bn in 2024, according to Future markets 2021. Directa Plus has a proven production technology, downstream application IP and a growing list of solid commercial products and partners, and is well positioned to win a substantial market share and enable significant value creation over the next few years.
? Significant room for upgrades: Our valuation of 280p leaves significant room for upgrades as and when the environmental division contract award is announced, but also strong traction in other verticals and geographies, including the expansion of the Environmental division into Northern Europe and the USA.