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Having done all they can to rob and hurt the company do you trust the indian government?
Having made bad decisions on an exit from the north sea and a purchase in egypt do you trust the board to do the right thing?
Where can. Cash that guarantee?
They need a new board to get to those higher numbers
Yes
Did not get that one but hoping to go to the no 10 Christmas party
Progress to date and listening to Boris most of us will be dead by then
As regards “hot heads”
The arbitration panel found in cne’s favour 3 to 0
They delayed the written award to make sure they closed off all loopholes the Indian Government may use.
The International Agreements/arbitration system has a strong and established system to ensure collection of the awards.
It is not hot headed to collect shat you are owed!
Its a simple calculation
You buy a portion of what you arebultimately willing to invest to cover the risk that the board settle. This is at a cost below net book value as the market does not seem to fully value the company or the management, No real downside,
You hope they don't settle but pursue the full award and are willing to have the share price fall in that event and take an unrealised loss. You might trade as it goes down and take a realised loss but the core strategy is wait until you feel the short term investors have sold and the share price has fallen to close to its lows and then you buy to fill the full risk you are willing to take,
You wait until the indian government wilts under the bad publicity and pain and until the full award is recognised in the share vale. Then you sell.
Not that difficult to understand
Have you considered that the indian government are not capable of settling?
I am posting here only in the hope that the Board are made aware of the posts and that it gets them thinking.
I have respect for the position the Board took in fighting the tax robbery. It was hard to hold the line over many years of being the punch bag and taking the punishment. Over that time the Indian Government acted the total and absolute bully stealing all the company assets they could and even raiding the company office with force.
I have no respect for the Board having taken those actions to get an award they now pussy out on collecting that award.
Selling the UK assets at the totally wrong time compounds that. But as no one has a crystal ball i can forgive them that.
I cannot forgive the stupidity in not pursuing the full award. That would not suit short term investors but would be the right thing to do from a commercial and as luck would have it a moral point of view.
If that is the case why the hell are we accepting less than that award!
Again i must disagree
The 2.47 was priced with the belief that the Indian Government would not compromise. They had fought the case to the bitter end, There was no action taken by the Indian government to that date to indicate that they would compromise - their actions indicated that they would fight to the bitter end. There was no other logical basis to the share value other than that. If you dosagree please indicate what actual actions or statements of the Indian Government you are relying on for same.
Ok lets look at the numbers
Cne traded at 2.47 immediately after the award. Remember the Indian Government had fought to the end and showed no sign of paying so all the delay and grief to collect the money the hard way was known and expected at that time. We now trade at 1.91 after the Indian Government has agreed to pay Usd 1 billon and passed the law to that effect. Does not look like a good result to me.
Oil is over Usd 80 dollars with some saying Usd 100 dollars is looking likely. Nobody is perfect but as Napoleon said give me a lucky general. The board does not seem to qualify under that on the UK sale.
The market is moved by short term players. What i am saying is that having done the difficult part - spending years fighting and winning a lonely arbitration battle - then have the gumption to follow through. The court was unanimous in its decision so cne are in a strong position.
That does not suit short term investors. However collecting the full award is the best course of action on a commercial and business basis. Their job is to run a business to make money.
Leaving Usd 700 or 800 million on the table when you have sufficient funds to fight the legal battle and run what remains of your business in a zero rate interest environment is bad business.
Since the board have agreed to settle the share price and sentiment has suffered. Selling out of the UK assets has been voted a terrible deal by the market. The Egypt the investment has again been voted a terrible deal - the jury is still out on that one but is definitely in on the first two.
Why be scared. Pursue the debt and collect Usd 1.8 to 1.9 billion instead of the 1 billion - that Usd 700-800 million is a huge return to the shareholders when the case is won and the company already has the funds to pursue it. Near term pain for medium term gain!
Meaning it would take 275 years to trade every share
To do a little more maths it would take approximately 275 years based on the number of shares traded today on a day that resulted in a 4% drop in share price. If the share kept dropping at that rate (based on value not reducing balance) it would be zero in 20 days.
Does this make any sense
Unless my maths are wrong Stg 5.5 million worth of trades knocked over Stg 140 million off the market cap. Who is fooling who?
If you pay Usd 27.5 million in interest you lose usd 27.5 million less 19%
If you pay no interest you lose zero as you have tax losses
Again please explain using logic
I note the post on freedom to bid for new assets and escaping the hedging straight jacket
I would love to see this company work the assets and generate the cash flow to return it to shareholders. What you sat makes sense if you want to increase the bet. I was hopeing that harbour would work the assets and not make the same mistake as premier.
Point taken - look elsewhere
My understanding is that premier had huge losses forward so tax should not be an issue for harbour
I understand the logic but simple mats says if you do not need to pay 5.5% of Usd 500 million or Usd 27.5 million per annum plus an arrangement fee and broker costs you do not pay it unless you like pain
I do not understand this and would really like to get a logical explanation for it. I am interested and see an opportunity but have a bad feeling on this point alone.
I really would appreciate a logical explanation
Sorry 500 million not 500k