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Where was the tax rebate when oil prices went negative?
I do not own shares here as i have no belief in the board (selling uk assets and walking away from usd 800m costs and interest in india)
I read the tender and to be honest i do not see that it is a setup. Maybe you could rig the strike price by trading crazily in the prior 5 days but if a large holder or a large shorter does this then they are open to a serious fraud charge.
The tender sum is limited to usd 500 million - this is a little over a third of the cash available so no big deal as the shares in issue will reduce and the max price is linked to the market price.
The basic question here is have the Egypt assets value or not? - do you trust the board to invest the balance of the funds in a smart way?
Make up your own mind and stop arguing about it. Life will be a lot more enjoyable.
The last word is space
May be true but you do not get paid over stg.2 million for such poor decision making and why leave usd 800m ion the table for india to spend in soace!
Well we now have our answer on the board and their decision making
My post is making the point that a low tender price would reflect it is a crap asset and a high tender price would reflect it is a good asset.
Which the board backs will say a lot about the asset and a lot about the boards decision to sell north sea and buy these egyptian assets
We eill know the answer very soon
Interesting if your calculation on cash and north sea future cash is correct then if the board set the tender price low it proves that egypt is worth zero and a crap deal - end of board. Will lead to an interesting discussion at that meeting.
Not sure but this might be the 2017 sale mixed up with the fact shell are planning a sale. Bad news if true. Better harbour collect cash, pay down debt snd prove themselves (learn to actually manage the business and avoid tolmont like issues in future)
We will soon know
Everybody makes their own decision. Having won the arbitration i was amazed the board bottled it and settled for usd 800m less than the award.. I sold and have moved on.
This is getting interesting again. The best way to deal with a bully is to fight. Giving in only leads to more bullying. Cairn is now a beggar with the begging bowl held out hopeing to get paid but with no real way to force it. The indian government has been bullying Cairn from the beginning. It feels like they just cannot bring themselves to pay.
If they do not pay the share price drops. An opportunity arises to buy again. We then skewer them and make a real cash profit.
Happy days.
I am investing here for this reason and hope you and i are right
I do not see hedging as a problem - makes no sense
Any useful comment?
Unless there is serious bad news coming this share price makes no sense. The two risks are
1. Tolmont timing and the related reserve issue. As the reserves are not being priced into the share at this -rice reducing these makes no difference. The timing of tolmont is at the end of the day a timing issue not a hit. If someone with a brain drafted the contract with the Italian yard then there is a serious commercial clim to be pursued and collected.
2. Hedging. If the problem is a high percentage of oil and gas is hedged then reducing commodity prices should hit harbour a lot less than bp and shell. That does not appear to be the position.
3. Share overhang as new shares commence trading. That is harder to factor in and may be a problem.
Anybody with a brain have facts or a logic on the above?
Strange share - oil up price does not move - oil down price down
If cairn does not have the balls to pursue the full award they cannot blame or leech off the company that does
I am interested in this myself. If you have a share trading at say 60% of book value, you are generating strong cash flow, you have low debt and you pay & cancel 13% of your shares and the market does not revalue you upwards who is the idiot?
When the transfer clears for full value
The delay is bad construction management plain and simple
The Indians are very good at using bureaucracy ti their benefit. The board have no idea when they will get the money no more than we do. That is the result of backing off the arbitration collection process.
Nothing fake about it
Having won the arbitration after a long expensive and damaging battle why settle for Usd 850 less than award costs and interest
Why sell out of a politically safe market at market sale prices to move to a poor underdeveloped dictatorship at prices set by the buyer/controller
Is that smart?