RE: Share movement19 Apr 2018 10:46
With IMM in mind, it's worth considering the risk v reward here.
The risks are extremely low - and reducing again with R2 safety data out.
IMO there is almost no risk of us not completing submission in the next few weeks. And very very low risk of the submission not being accepted and subsequently approved. (DYOR about the BOD and P3 results).
There is a small risk of dilution via a placement to fund HABP, but yesterdays interview made quite clear that the BOD are looking for other options (MA deals/ licencing) to fund this. If there is a placement in Q3, and a 10-20% drop in sp, this should recover quickly as the benefits of HABP are added in. Also, I expect the sp to be much high prior to a placement being considered.
On the other hand, there is the upside. The analyst tagets of > �1 are there for a reason. We are targetting a huge market and each 10% share of our addressable (renally impaired) market is worth $280mill pa! A novel AB is worth $1bn plus on approval.
And, of course there is the huge chance of a deal or buy out by/with another pharma, that could appear any day - which is why SandGrove have invested around $10mill!
Probably the safest AIM share with a real chance of 4-5 bagging this year. Hence I have over �100k invested here.
IG