Morning19 Apr 2018 14:01
dontpanick ......... been there mate over many years and wasted much time dreaming and waiting.
Eventually I decided to create scenarios (hate that word still) . ie for a good solid VERY well run and MANAGED company I will try to buy 6mths ahead of some good news which I would expect to give sp a nudge up ........ ie First gold pour or some such.
On this one my theory in place is:- At IPO many (probably small) Fund Managers and Institutions took sizeable chunks of shares. Many such I happen to know invest in a certain part of the standardized sp trajectory associated with the creation of a stand alone Mining Company to maximize profit and minimize RISK !!. We are at the point in time when all the meaningful drilling has been done (ie we have copper) ie sp has lifted. So we are now in a phase when parameters are being established and this will be followed by financing. This is all very risky so they wont want to be along for that ride. Because of the number of Institutions and the shear volume of shares they hold they need to arrange an orderly exit. For this they look to MMs. They will get out under stewardship of MMs using various techniques to support the sp but towards the end with most shares gone and profits realized there will be some dregs left. The MMs can then let the price drift down and if they want stock themselves it is a chance for them to bag some at a depressed price particularly if there isn't any news about.
I believe that is where we are now ...... at the end.
Once all those shares are thru the market can stabalize. It may stay stable as definition drill is done and jorc compliant resources declared, then DFS will be finalized/written, then Mine Plan written, then Finance sought, then Mine build, THEN FIRST COPPER.
At First copper a huge amount has been derisked and so a whole group of other classy investors; specializing in this phase of the standardized sp graph for the birth of a Mine Co; become interested. The prediction is that the sp then climbs gradually as the expected performance (from the DFS, jorc and Plant Engineering) is proved and sustained for a prolonged period ..... say 18 months and showing Free cash flow !!
A peak is reached which often mirrors the original peak reached from expo news. It then flattens out again but if the Mine expands and finds additional resources to increase production from then the price may resume a limited upward movement again for a short while
This is all kicked about by day to day news flow and of course the price of commodity.
These are entirely my thoughts and theories and to some they are rubbish.. I will agree with anyone so suggesting.
But it is what I work with.
Have your own thoughts and theories which you will build with experience but if I may, I suggest you have fun with it. It brings so much understanding of life by drawing together Science Engineering Politics Economics Philosophy Sociology and of course history.
IMH