Zen, Where will it stand?28 Feb 2020 18:45
Posted this for AAOG but copying it here if it interests anyone, please feel free to fill in the gaps.
Basing all on todays share price as the worst case, looks bleak but showing the importance of them sorting themselves out.
Im not ramping or de-ramping, just trying to put to paper the commitments already made.
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Zen, The Shares.
Coro 3/12/20
6.7m shares at 6p / £400k
Plus £3.5m in shares at 40% premium to current SP for Italy Assets
I have no idea on the costs or commitments needed here.
"Completion of the Acquisition is conditional, inter alia, on the approval of sale by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development."
AAOG Congo (80%) 12/12/20
£500k cash, £500k in shares at 14 day VWAP on completion.
Other commitments $7.5m /£5.m license and drilling campaign.
AAOG Congo (20%) 31/1/2021 £1m or £2.5m in shares
Completion of the Acquisition is conditional, on Congo approval.
30/1/2020 Set up or Norwegian Subsidiary
Costs - most AIM minnows going for north sea assets need £5-10m, i have no idea what Norwegian startups need.
17/2/2020 £800k ESA bench marked at 1.6p (not even started issuing and its 50% down on that.)
So with just the known above AC has committed to issuing £5.8-7.3m in shares.
The ESA will also not raise enough to pay their drawn down CLN which has $1m balance on it, so expect atleast another 60-70m shares for this on top by the time its paid.
Thats around ~£8m in shares that they will issue, and at 0.85p bid that is 941m more shares, making a total ~1.5billion shares in issue in total.
Plus you have the costs of :
The Not yet named 1000 barrel asset in west Africa 12/2/2020
Cost unknown
Azerbaijan - ongoing
ive not looked at the asset, no idea on costs and commitments.
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Zen, the Bonds, 25m Euro Bond Facility.
Been up for sale for a month, one one filled.
To be spent on?
~$8m needed for AAOG Congo campaign.
guess ~$3-5m for Coro running costs?
guess ~$5-10m for Norwegian asset and running costs?
guess ~$5-8m for a 1k bpd west African asset?
and any the remainder on refinancing and running costs?
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Potential Positives?
Congo - the SNPC debt might get repaid, oil might start getting produced.
Coro / Italy - the assets might produce well
Az - some oil might get flowing.
Bonds - might get filled.
1k West Africa - 3 month payback?
Norwegian - if it gets a license block who know.
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Conclusion
If it all goes ahead where do Zen stand based on the 0.85p share price today?
Mcap at 0.85p with 1.5b shares in issue = £12.75m, with a maxed out bond facility.
And most of the shares owned will be by companies wanting to sell them, leaving more downward pressure on the share price.
Clear to see that AC needs to get the share price up, cut back or wiggle out of assets by not getting government approval, and get oil out the ground, focus on producing ASAP and cut back on all administration costs and excessive spending. just thi