RE: Up 10% today over the pond!19 Nov 2025 09:53
I tend to agree Will and I am not sure what the issue is, so didn't want to reply last night, whilst we were having such a good day after the fantastic Q3s. There will/should be a Segi-sized oxide mine at Douta, with Segi-sized costs, etc. for a period of a few years. Great. I have been referring to that as "Phase 1" in my posts, rightly or wrongly, because we've had the BIOX chat here before. It's known. Perhaps "Phase 1" could even be funded wholly by THX, out of Segilola cashflow. Then, there will be new/additional plant, roughly twice the cost of Phase 1, let's call it Phase 2, which then produces for 2-3x as long as the Phase 1 Oxide... Great!
In that timeline, Segilola is likely still producing and perhaps even the first Cote d'Ivoire mine, albeit if that follows either Segilola or Douta Oxide, perhaps some of the plant can be reused/repurposed, savings costs. However, I think the latter is probably a paper exercise and potentially not worth the hassle and I suspect both Segilola and Douta Oxide will still be producing when Cote d'Ivoire is under construction, anyway.
And, as Pacifico says, maybe Thor strike a toll agreement with Endeavour... Maybe Thor sells Douta Refractory to Endeavour... Maybe someone else owns Thor entirely by then. If we can't take MCAP credit for reserves that won't be produced for 5 plus years, why should the market reduce the MCAP for "massive further investment" in new plant, which, arguably, isn't expensive over LoM. And in a (currently) $4100/oz PoG environment.
I can't for the life of me see why anyone would refer, in such a negative way, to the "black hole". If you just want to look at Thor as an oxide producer then we're almost certain to have continuous production from Segilola -> Douta Oxide -> Cote d'Ivoire... My view is that Refactory will be parallelised over the top and there could be as much as 15 years of it. And that's before we consider other leases in the coming say 5yrs, perhaps farming out/partnering on lithium, etc., etc.
Maybe I am too defensive/optimistic but I think one should look at Segun's decision to go after oxide at Douta as an excellent one, likely creating the total absence of a "black hole" and cash flow to fund a long duration Refactory operation there. Whereas it's made to sound like some sort of desperation hail Mary. "finally end years of it being excluded from any coverage by Segun" - what's the suggestion here? They knew there was refactory ore. The market knew there was refactory ore. Segun told the market they'd go for more oxide allowing faster build and commissioning, cash flow, etc. hence the deliberate and announced delay - what further transparency was needed?