George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
You can... I know because I have been sent one... but I'll be damned if I can work out how to get it myself! Maybe you have to pay the enhanced subscription, like here? Looking at it; there were quite a few trades throughout the session but there was one biggie at $0.26, which you can see from the VWAP being only a little above that. It feels like we are starting to gain a bit of traction now. I am guessing some folk will have been monitoring during the drop and will have been trying to catch the bottom. Good signs of a strong reversal now. Hopefully a reasonably quick walk back up to the $0.4-0.5 level (~£0.26) on new entrants, interest and continuing production news coming from company.
Very nice day here and Toronto (as I type)... Hopefully just the start! It moves up quickly when there's a buyer - got to keep driving the volume to find fair value. Fantastic West African success story, which I am sure will get more and more attention!
https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1h04d1g-THX_080222.pdf
Thanks to "Aficangoldhunter"
Current MCAP by Toronto market = US$120M (CAD$151M)... Looking at ~US$156M revenue in Year 1, on just Segilola production. MCAP is currently just ~77% of Year 1 revenue, with free cash being around 50% of that, so MCAP is only ~1.6x Year 1 free cash. It would feel undervalued at twice the SP it currently is. Since they didn't draw down the full loan; I assume it could be paid off in around a year or so and then you'd expect some very, very healthy dividends. Extend Segilola, bring Douta (and/or others) to production and this could be an unbelievable LTH, with a nice dividend each year. That's before considering buy out, M&A, partnering, etc. People forget they're the first mover in Nigeria and getting more experienced by the day. Could become quite the West African success story. Segun speaks so well; would be good to get the story out in some more mainstream media.
Need to temper and manage expectations but I am (as usual) bullish here. A conservative 1st year target is no issue for me now. Let's not downgrade guidance, wherever possible. These are excellent numbers and yet there are still very clearly opportunities for upside (g/t, reducing AISC, increasing POG?, increasing gold recovery %, etc) and that's just Segilola. We then have Segilola extension, Douta, Burkina, etc. Just need some folk to hop aboard the good ship THX and get the volume going so we find fair value. Might take some marketing and a spend but the money is there and a rising SP will (no pun intended) pay dividends. Hoping this highly positive update is a bit of a turning point. Now up here and in Toronto but hopefully just the start.
Agreed - comms have always been a weakness, hence my suggestion of building (or paying) a good comms team, run by a board member with a proven market track record. They have got the money now, that's for sure! "Gold Production Increases at Segilola" would be a far more punchy title... almost missed it myself looking to confirm your figures, as I assumed the latest was just a Douta update.
Bang in the middle of my $10-$15M prediction a few posts down, so right on (positive) expectation at ~$3M/week. All great news: "100% owned Segilola Gold Mine in Nigeria continued to perform at budget and design capacity without any unplanned stoppages during January".
And the price drops here (a little) with a massive spread. I think THX need to look into some marketing to get some volume here (and Toronto) as the SP/MCAP has no basis w.r.t. 'value'. She's a cash cow now, able to pay back debts easily or very, very early (if they want), invest in exploration at Segilola, Douta and elsewhere, etc, etc. I do believe something should be done to return value to investors, especially for the LTHs, who held through the high risk periods of funding and development. I suspect no one thought the SP would be down here now, at profitable production (pretty much on expectation), but I suspect there has been some early investor profit taking and without new retail investors or institutions coming in to hold up the SP, she's struggling to find fair value.
The SP is frustrating but what a success story for the team and they should be well congratulated for that. Perhaps, now they're producing; time to look at adding someone to the board who can push the marketing and story. The higher the SP, the better the chances of being able to raise at a good valuation (if needed, a few years down the line, unnecessary today) for further leases/license areas, developments, partnering/sharing, etc. and to keep growing the company for decades to come.
Oh, for sure - no argument there.
I'd love to know more about Senegal and the economics, would bring the company fantastic certainty for the future.
Interesting stuff but, yeah, I am not sure why Thor would be considered 'high risk' with Segilola, Nigeria (not to be confused with Senegal) now happily producing away. Senegal might be next, could be next... might not be. It's in exploration and, no doubt, there are in-country and local content requirements for doing some or all of that work. The THX guys who have successfully developed Segilola will no doubt be able to manage any 'knowledge gaps' local firms may have and work with them to reach a place where they have all the data they need to take it to any sort of FID, etc.
I hope THX releases some January figures in the coming days and I am expecting to see production and sales somewhere between US$10M and US$15M of gold sold. On that basis; there would appear to be no reason why we should expect any issues with servicing the debt, which is relatively small when you consider those sales, annualised (assuming gold continues to bounce around $1800).
Whenever I look at the valuation of the company; I don't even include Senegal as it is so early stage but clearly there is potential value there, which shouldn't be fully discounted. If we simply look at the asset (the mine, now producing) and liability ratios (the 5yr loan) on Segilola, this is horribly undervalued and is rapidly becoming a real cash cow. Should be 2-3x here and expect a serious re-rate in 2022 based on positive cashflow and likely Segilola extensions, etc.
CAD$0.7+ ... not US this time, so easy to relate to current Toronto SP!
And "crash", should obviously be "cash" - LOL!
Could be. Worked hard to get this far so wouldn't be a problem to my mind to liquify a few. I always calculate the value on the fully diluted (ie assuming all options exercised) number of shares that could be in circulation, which, according to Thor's site is 669,198,009 . Last time I did it, I think I calculated a realistic valuation in the CAD$0.7+ region. A little below the latest broker research but tonnes of upside from here. Just got to keep releasing news of the crash cow in the market and hopefully volume increases with interest, then the SP will follow.
US$120M MCAP that is... always convert CAD to USD as it makes more sense in the context of gold price being in USD.
16.1% drop in Toronto, currently, on ~425k shares traded or >2x average volume. Guess there's a seller.... but then there's also a buyer who is expecting upside and it's not a huge drop considering it is 10x the volume of yesterday (or was it Monday?) and then there's the usual large spread. It's frustrating but, yes, fully agree it can, will and recently has moved up just as fast. I expect some good news in the next couple of weeks, updating us with January figures, demonstrating ongoing plant stability, high grade ore going through, high recovery and sales at the strong gold price. A few months of that and the value will hopefully become clear to any doubters/sellers. Toronto MCAP is currently ~$120M and we're expecting >50% of that after AISC this year (need to re-check my calcs) and then ~70% in year two on? Bargain.
Looks like you jinxed it :D
Gold up, THX producing well, SP drops here today...
Still all volume 'issues'. SP swings wildly with very few transactions and a wide spread.
Frustrating but the company accounts will speak for themselves in 2022. Looking for an end of Jan production and sales update to push the 'interest' on!
Good to have you aboard Algo Man. I am looking at a similar sort of figure here.
Am I going mad or have some posts last night been deleted. Seemed to be getting spicy, so I stayed out of it.
Remember, it was the rampers that forced a lot of reasoned and seasoned AMGO investors off this board at the last court case. Incessant ramping about £1 next week, "didn't the legal team do well in court", despite typing out every word (near enough) of the court cases - ISA is talking rubbish or doesn't know, etc, etc. Clear warnings were made on this board before the judge ruled, last time out and any factual reasoning was drowned out by people who are suspiciously quiet now.
Maybe they're on the Twitter group, maybe not. Who knows.
We've also had people with multiple accounts, people ramping whilst selling, etc, etc.
The derampers are no worse than the rampers and anyone who called the (negative) outcome before it came wasn't deramping - they were right. I am far more wary of those ramping than deramping. DYOR and all that and make your own decisions. People lost a lot here buying into the rises at 10p, 20p and even 30p and not one of those (now paper or realised) losses can be attributed to a deramper.
What we need now are people entering and re-entering because they value the underlying business and future prospects and will stick around. Hopefully the 'stability +/-~6p has shaken out the day traders and there can be a period of growth here. The increase in volume obviously suggests a seller but since the price is not dropping; someone is happy to accumulate in big slices. When the cheap shares are off the table, hopefully a reasoned and sustained move up will come.
GLAH, play nice and DYOR :)
Yeah, the "130" as opposed to 1830 threw me there! Inflation is rampant... I am liking gold a lot to break back over $2000.
Thor is poised to take full advantage. Expect cashflows to improve significaantly!
POG? Petropavlovsk?
KJU is an investor in value... We occupy 'another group', since SOA1. The tide needed to turn. It may have been cheaper last week (for example) but... time heals a lot of wounds. Every day closer to SOA2 is a step towards greater certainty. A lot of shares are now changing hands, yet we do find ourselves at a higher price than the SOA1 run, which was really KOd by the BB/JPM buying (not investing, as we said at the time). Looking for a TR1 here to confirm the trend. If the buying in large tranches continues; its expected, of course. As soon as people wake up and see that TR1, volume will dry up. The short tracker says there are no shorts... If people are hoovering shares now (someone clearly is), it's not to cover short positions; it's to accumulate and hold through court. Yes, someone is selling out and on the other side of the fence but the price has also walked down below 50% of where a lot of the accumulation was done into the run into SOA1 (12-14p). In other words; possibly institutions forced to derisk (are JPM/BB completely out?) and the narrow spread tells us there is appetite to gleefully take them back into sticky hands.
I've bee watching, quietly, every day since I 'left' the board... Were I to re-enter, let's just say my reappearance was not a coincidence. I believe very strongly in a run here and the foundations of SOA2 being far stronger than SOA1. Many of you will remember me leaving as after the court case, before the result, I was convinced it wouldn't pass and sold out. And never bought back. This week... this week is different. SOA2... SOA2 is different. The world has changed dramatically in the last year, even if it felt like 2020 should have been the 'odd one'. Rampant inflation, way beyond the CPI figures the government quote is clear for all of us. This needs settling and it needs settling now. The FCA may not have the appetite to fight this as the political landscape has changed. Is it more important to crush Amigo... or to put money in the pockets of those most affected by the last couple of years of difficulties?
Not my (formerly) usual 'numerical' or probabilistic spin... but at 6p - It's a no brainer looking at the technicals, history into SOA1 and fundamentals of SOA2.
Hello, old friend! I'll see this through court... Couldn't leave it alone, could I? :D
There's a big buyer in the market... is it the (former?) bond holders - I wouldn't think so but it's hugely confidence inspiring.
You're all holding at this point, right? So if someone really wants your shares; they're going to have to pay for them. Liquidity will dry up in the run into court.
Will we see the dizzying heights of 30p in a run into court? I don't think so; once bitten, twice shy. But lessons have been learned since SOA1. The proposal on the table seems much fairer. The company is now in a very different position, with reducing income and having paid the bondholders back. I don't think this is the Mexican stand-off that SOA1 was, but I do think hands are being forced more appropriately, this time.
The creditors deserve their money now. We can argue about whether that is true for all creditors and whether the amount is fair but it was AMGO themselves who agreed they had done wrong and owed the money. They've gone away, consulted, improved the offer (dramatically) and are in the financial position now that a judge (nor the FCA, though their motivations are likely different) can't realistically tell them to go away again.
It's no hollow threat now - it's reality. Their bluff was called last time out - there is no bluff to call this time.
I have a 15-20p target on this in the run up to court, followed by some turbulence as old investors leave and new investors board, based on a fairly significant raise, followed by a long period of stability and some shallow, steady growth as AMGO2.0 gets on it's feet. Those waiting for the £1 party at the lake may be waiting a while, a good while, but if SOA1 was a gamble, the odds have significantly improved for SOA2, possibly reflecting the likely smaller prize at the end.
But play realistic games, win realistic prizes!