Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
*In what context was as that £1B valuation ?*
Depending on the shares in issue (quick Google suggest ~1,450,000,000) and MM's LinkedIn post saying Apollo valued Ingenuity above the share price at the time (~65p)... 1,450,000,000 x 0.65 = ~£950M... So a billion valuation on Ingenuity, give or take... supposedly.
Everyone has to make their own decisions and we all need to be careful to not be too greedy nor get too emotionally involved. I was badly burned on THG today (well, this week) with the buyout there dissolving. The re-rate in THX has been a long time coming and although the SP has made steady progress this year, and gold is holding $2000/oz, the world is 'struggling', to put it simply, and I can quite imagine that small cap miners in Nigeria are not top of investors' hit lists. I say that because we need buy side volume to see appreciation here and while we fly under the radar; we may have to wait. I am sure the BoD are all over the AISC, optimising the chemical/fuel costs and contracts, wherever possible. The joker in the pack for me is what they do at Douta. The gradings there and the costs of production (leading directly to AISC) need careful consideration and planning. What we have today is a mine (Segilola) that makes positive FCF, with now very low debt. That's huge vs even 2 years ago. Maybe the market is worried about the mine life but all signs point to Segilola being extended and that being a very healthy extension. Let's get that news formalised, the debt gone and look at a nice, regular dividend to entice some new entrants. Acquisitions, mergers or asset divestment could be the icing on the cake and provide investors with some near term upside. We sometimes need to step back and look at where we have come... And all the hard stuff was done during COVID. Huge success story that needs greater attention from retail and institutions alike (but that might need some more marketing)!
I'd say fair enough and likely anticipated by the markets, hence the favourable write-ups on the results. Energy prices in Nigeria are pretty nuts at the moment (surprisingly to some who know it as a big hydrocarbon producer) and these guys are using a lot of fuel. Spot prices have obviously dropped dramatically, globally, but it might take some time there for it to filter through to them. Looking at the diesel to LNG conversion work they were doing; they seem on top of it and doing the right things but both are expensive there. It is a bump to the AISC and that's a shame, so it would be nice to have some more detail there but the gold price is strong, US dollar is showing some weakness (albeit let's see what the Fed does) and Thor's interests in other licenses potentially provide additional revenue streams. AISC is something to monitor with the lower gold grades at Douta but they will have that in hand and looking at the recent extension drilling results at Segilola; very, very high grades, so one could anticipate the AISC dropping as fuel costs drop and grades go up. I still say we're at most ~50% of the value we should be, so I'd like to see the BoD getting after some marketing, looking into a divi, doing more M&A or even smart divestment, etc. to give it that shot in the arm and find a fair value base. $72M EBITDA is proper! Makes the SP look like a very nice opportunity!
One of my bugbears over the years; somewhat of an unsung hero, THX. There are retail platforms that don't offer it due to it being a small MCAP and on AIM and it doesn't seem to be on the radar for IIs. THX loves volume and is always suppressed on small sells at a wide spread. Doesn't get the attention it deserves, albeit a dividend, some marketing, etc., etc. would probably help. IIs will like the track record of paying divis (as would retail). It's no longer a small time explorer; it's a solid producer with a shed load of future potential, generating fantastic cashflow. One day the re-rate will come. As I always say; needs a shot in the arm from somewhere, maybe some takeover interest? Can believe other miners looking to break into West Africa will be observing it all closely.
Courtesy of @Cullario:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1012368/thor-explorations-remains-preferred-gold-producer-exposure-in-london-broker-says-1012368.html
It does feel like we're steadily re-rating since February. Waiting for their mic drop moment!
Been quietly observing from the sidelines and via the old LTH chat 'elsewhere'. Take no pleasure in seeing this RNS, this morning. Sorry to all you LTHers.
No need to restrict yourself to two, when you have plenty of cash - can look at mergers, partnering, acquisition, other leases, etc. For me it's about not restricting yourself to somewhere that requires a large investment with lower grades vs Segilola. Could get involved in many developments and potentially at later, de-risked stages in the projects. Simply; the world is their oyster if they're cash rich. I am not a "Segilola-only" maximalist, I am "Segilola and look wider than Douta" theorist :D
Great to see THX add 144% to the Douta reserves for 1.78 million ounces or ~$3.6B worth of gold, at today's price. Fantastic achievement that demonstrates the value of that exploration campaign. 1.2 g/t Au to 1.3 g/t Au is expected and this is where I would consider divestment in Douta and further investment in Segilola as the value realisation play. Either way though; look at the assets on the books AND they're profitably producing. Still the most undervalued miner on the LSE. Great work by the small team there!
Gold over $2,000 and with the world in turmoil, BRICS looking at some sort of gold standard to push out the USD; Thor may be timing this Segilola extension very nicely.
Agree on the focus on additional reserves at Segilola but diverge slightly on the 2nd mine. I also don't tend to care where the appreciation comes from but it hasn't been growth (so far). If they can find enough (and I think they can/will) at Segilola, to give a good, long mine life, then I think the lower grades and required capital expenditure (not forgetting stretching all resources of a small producer) of setting up Douta could be a distraction/drag, especially with the current cost of finance (hence why a higher SP would be good for raising) and unpredictable financial markets (where will gold be in 5yrs?). Segilola economics are 'better' (albeit I haven't looked at Douta in a while) and the new grades look excellent, the mine is operational, producing, debt is being paid down and the gold price is strong... we just need confirmation of extension reserves. Extend Segilola, take the life to say 10yrs+ and take some time (producing a boat load of cash) to review the assets/portfolio and look at partnering, acquisition, divestment, etc. That's probably why I'm not CEO though! "Acquisitions" were also mentioned in that same RNS, if I remember correctly. Something (good) is brewing...
I read it the opposite way; the debt has been restructured, which includes the removal of any covenants restricting Thor's ability to pay dividends. That was specifically mentioned in the RNS. The company has gone from fundraising and pre-construction through to the operational cash machine it is now, without a lot of share price (thus company valuation) appreciation. Seems bonkers when you look at it like that, with what they have achieved. I anticipate a shot in the arm, from the way I'm reading the RNSs. A potential, possibly regular, dividend would make them more attractive to IIs and PIs alike, increasing the SP and making it easier to raise funds (if required, probably not) for Segilola extension but also for whatever happens with Douta i.e. develop a 2nd mine. Albeit I personally still favour a Segilola extension focus for now. But I think we all remain aligned here that it has been a fairly good store of wealth but that the SP does not necessarily value the company correctly. I just don't favour (invested ~6yrs) the "wait and see, it will find fair value" path, which I appreciate sounds impatient.
There has been some stronger buying in Toronto and the shares on both exchanges need to FX balance, effectively. I do wonder if people buy/sell between, to hedge. I also think Segun has been on some trips (someone on CEO.CA said they met/spoke) and I am sure after all the recent comms that 'something' is coming. What that is - not sure, but they're cooking on gas at the moment. Time for a dividend and confirmed long duration Segilola extension, Douta plan?
Yes, that's a very nice little update!
Re. the debt, sorry @TheMoss I was quoting from that same release, I should have said "play around with it [more]" i.e. I am looking at what might point to plans for the future i.e. any hints for funding a future mine. or anything they're doing today that would point at Douta developments. As it stands; I still think unlocking Segilola extension is the key... solid, low cost basis and perhaps enough extension potential to keep them busy for many years to come. Would rather not debt load now - let's enjoy some of the fruits of their hard labours.
We await the overdue re-rate here - still looks very cheap vs. peers with good news seemingly coming through thick and fast this year.
Loans are being paid off quickly, so I would guess (especially with global IRs where they are) they won't focus on restructuring or play around with their current deals. The debt isn't really a burden now, after the strong production/performance in 2022 and upgraded 2023 guidance. Where is the senior debt at the moment, must be around $25M from memory? Fairly inconsequential vs FCF, even if the IR is reasonably high (or was for back then). Appreciate there are other, smaller repayments, etc. Douta is an interesting one, let's see what happens there. I guess the assumption is that they will develop it themselves but I await the plan. Reading the results to Q3, RNSs, looking at their objectives, etc.; I would expect some more 'strategic' announcements for 2023, perhaps later this quarter/after the Q4, full year. On the basis that, after funding, construction and (now well over) a year's production, the share price has never really gradually increased (and held), I would expect the BOD to start looking to 'do something'. Look at how many shares they own and, although the salaries look very healthy, with the Segilola mine life as it currently is; buy backs (mentioned before), dividends (special and/or regular) and even M&A are all routes to securing a higher valuation and getting more liquidity, sooner. Douta could be an anchor to realising value short to mid-term (as the market seems to completely ignore its value at the moment). However, I do think the big prize is Segilola extension, which I expect to come. You could, for example, partner in Senegal and Burkina Faso (and even elsewhere) and focus on say 10+ years of Segilola. Thor is then even more of a mega cash cow with the already low and reducing AISC and strong (long may it hold/increase) gold price. They could buy in elsewhere, as a partner (or other) and secure a cashflow pipeline for the future, without the 'difficulty' of taking on mine construction directly, especially in a new (to them) country. At least we haven't been on the rollercoaster that is GGP or alike. Look at GGP's recent board appointments and 'moves'. There does seem to be some M&A in the market, generally. The THX SP seems anchored to the Segilola annual guidance and mine life at the moment, thus I don't see it moving until there are clear paths to extension and monetisation of other licenses. Volume has been low lately (after the flurry and rise) and CEO.CA have only 8,500 shares traded in Toronto last night. Since the potential of both extension and the development of other licenses seems to be mostly ignored by the market; I still believe strongly this is one of the most undervalued shares around and one of the LSE's best kept secrets.
The usual i.e nothing sinister... early investor sell-off after results and not attracting new buyers as no one knows about it...
But, I like this line in the RNS today: "...releasing the Company from restrictions regarding acquisitions, distribution of dividends..." - sounds to me like something interesting could be brewing. A cheeky and regular divi would be nice, some M&A possibly even more so!
Just got the above title email in my inbox, referring to a corporate action, from ii.
Had forgotten all about this disaster!
£0.193 equivalent in Toronto as I type. Needs volume buyers, which it just got over there. All that sweet FCF and upgraded 2023 guidance, with what is now very small debt (relative to production) should attract some buyers. Would appreciate some more promotion for what is an enormous success story. This ought to be pretty stable above the ATH now but lets give it a few days/weeks to get noticed and see where we are. You would hope there would soon be talk of dividends or buy backs, especially if they confirm Segilola extension. Definitely the best value producer on AIM and one of the most undervalued shares.
Re-post from CEO.CA, which is a good summary:
FY 2023 production guidance range set at 85,000 to 95,000 oz of gold weighted towards the second half of the year. This is an increase versus the 76,900 oz of production expected for 2023 in the mine plan.
Senior debt reduced to $28.4 million as at 31 December 2022.
Resumption of drilling at Segilola (1H/23) aimed at increasing resources for potential future transition to underground operation. Continuation of drilling at Segilola regional targets.
Debt way down, production guidance way up for 2023. Time to get a wriggle on the SP!
Worth a read ahead of the AGM:
https://ceo.ca/content/sedar/THX-20221130-Interim-financial-statementsreport-English-52ac.pdf
https://ceo.ca/content/sedar/THX-20221130-MDA-English-1a06.pdf
https://www.kereport.com/2022/11/23/thor-explorations-comprehensive-exploration-update-at-the-douta-development-project/
Segun Lawson, President and CEO of Thor Explorations $THX $THXPF, joins us for a comprehensive #exploration update at the Douta development Project in #Senegal. The Company is continuing to expand the resources at the Makosa ore body, which now has grown to a 7km strike length, and incorporates the Makosa Tail zone and has been connected to the main deposit. In addition to the step-out drilling and infill drilling at the Makosa deposit, the exploration team has been further drill testing around 3 key new mineralized satellite discoveries at the Mansa, Maka, and Sambara targets.
Because of the continued drilling success finding new zones of mineralization and infilling key areas of interest, the exploration program was extended again with drills scheduled to keep turning through late December. At that point, the plan is to get all the new drill results released and then put into an expanded resource estimate update in Q1 of 2023, and then after that to wrap some economics around the Douta project in a Preliminary Economic Assessment for the market to evaluate.
The goal is to expand the resources well beyond the recent 730,000 ounce Maiden Mineral Resource Estimate for the Makosa Deposit, and show the economic viability of the new satellite deposits at Mansa, Maka, and Sambara potentially feeding into a central processing plant in a hub and spoke strategy. We wrap up by also highlighting some of the key near-term exploration and #production catalysts at the producing Segilola Mine in #Nigera.