It went into auction. Lots wanted to sell because of the RNS, lots wanted to buy (at a low price) and they need to balance the buy/sell price to give the market liquidity. When sellers and buyers 'agreed' on a price, the opening price was found. The fact it drifted lower at close is interesting as more 'considered' buyers and sellers 'agreed' on an even lower price when the news was digested and we watched the day unfold. I wont make a prediction on tomorrow as nothing surprises me anymore but I won't be risking a limit buy order... I'll be watching it all unfold and see if we get further news. I don't expect surprises after the creditors meeting but I can see a world where AMGO say if they're willing to compromise or not. A hard stance may be a mistake in the eyes of the market. Take an additional slap on the wrist and move on.
Thanks bud. Could be some more pain to come to find the 'right valuation'... so we're on a roller coaster for the next 8 days, depending on whether there is an appeals process (don't know). But, yes, when you factor in burn rate; everyone (AMGO, FCA, creditors, etc) will want the sign off done ASAP!!! AMGO will concede a bit, but not so much they go bust. How much that will need to be - no idea. What I am quietly keeping in my back pocket is that because this is time critical, any compromise, concession agreement is based on FCA approval to start re-lending again, without unreasonable interference. If the judge wants £50M extra in the pot (making that number up, maybe hyperbole to make a point) and 10% more profit share then they better be allowed to get out there and sell some loans. So, I now believe we are even more likely to get re-lending immediately after the 19th, as it will form part of the FCAs plan to get AMGO to survive to pay the new, enriched payment to creditors, a lot of which is 'hidden' in future profit.
The target of 40p for bonuses seemed too 'easy'. It seemed too certain, all being well, we would punch through that this/next week and likely hold it after expected news, with steady growth after. If their valuation calculations said AMGO was worth 20p now and 40p on re-lending... it would make more sense that this was a stretch target for share price. The FCA won't like our share price in the 30s and the BoD getting paid out at 40p. This IS political. It's all about how it looks. The government, thus the FCA, have to be seen to getting the most for the creditors. The SOA passing has given them the opportunity to look like heroes. I thought they'd stay out of it. They didn't. Thus, no re-buy for me, yet. But I DO expect to do well over the medium->longer term.
Another mega day of meetings so difficult to contribute, trying to catch up on 50-odd messages between each call. The risk profile has changed. I am absolutely of the opinion that the judge WILL 'pass' an SOA but I am now fairly convinced that it won't be without fairly significant changes to the pot. Don't be confused - this is all political. The FCA must be seen to go to bat for the people, on the behest of the government, BECAUSE it the SOA has been passed. They pretty much have guaranteed political upside. They WILL get creditors more money because they won't let AMGO go bust and a deal must be struck. I've said before I wouldn't be topping up at yesterday's price because, without re-lending, we should be worth the cash in the bank. Fair? Without going back and looking at the maths, that would put the share price at ~35p. We were at ~30p, still with some risk, as many have seen today. Not a lot of upside left but, yes, reasonable chance we'd punch through that on speculation. So, that was my downside-upside, if that makes sense? Now, if the FCA force a larger cash contribution, the cash value of the company becomes <35p, until re-lending. If the FCA force a compromise on a greater % profit then the 50, 60, 70p valuations put on the company before yesterday must come down. A larger cash contribution AND an increase in profits will result in much slower growth going forwards, from a lower base. For me, the risk profile has changed a bit. The volume was also enormous. IIs and whales simply must have sold. Whether deliberately or by losses/risk circuit breakers being triggered. It wouldn't surprise me if Vinson had some downside protection in place, for example. He said he was going to hold, and I believe him... that doesn't mean he didn't have some protection on the low side he thought would never get triggered. Who anticipated a 25% loss today and it dropping below 20p, briefly? I am sure many thought that unthinkable, hence a lot of PIs will have been stopped out as well and we see all the 'excitement' on here today. A lot of new posters, rampers and derampers but all argument is interesting. We're not dealing with the same beast as yesterday, sadly, and we all need to proceed with caution and evaluate how much risk we're personally willing to accept. Most of us posting are likely still in profit and I wouldn't blame anyone for protecting that. I will hold because I'd all but written it off, previously, but my want to top up has certainly had cold water poured on it. Remember, I was in the original court call and I believe I did report that my feeling was that the judge was going to discuss, in detail, the fairness of it with a view to reviewing it, which I said at the time I thought would result in changes. Now I am sure of it. I am also sure we WILL get Amigo 2.0 but it's perhaps not the one we envisaged up to yesterday as it will have heavier shackles. The conspi****** in me says the board also knew this...
But you could post your views / thoughts / analysis in a balanced manner to allow other posters to take into consideration. Else, the boards would only be full of positive side/rampers. We need balanced discussion and analysis to support the majority in making their own decisions. Too many times we have seen people swayed by the ramp/deramp. I have oft wondered whether a very well moderated board of 'no opinion - only analsysis' would be good. But it would be a hell of a thing to police.
No... can now, 23.19p...
Can't get a quote... Was in a meeting at the big dip :(
0.26399 quote now live - someone bought a few in auction!
Getting a 0.2284 indicative but says they're unable to obtain a live quote... auction it is!
Showing 26p bid and 22.84p offer but can't fill £10k or give a market price.
Mouse - you're back!
Interesting day ahead! Looks like I better clear my calendar for the 19th!
Great news! Can't remember what my average is but it's ugly... 30p-ish maybe? Gone from totally writing it off to something I can hope for the best from on what will no doubt be a long road! And hi Mark :D
Looked like it was dropping off there, into close. Popped up nicely! Good volume, nice rise. Another good day! Holding my breath for the vote RNS...
You're most welcome :) exciting week ahead!
There's always been a lot of talk of JPM "investing". I have always been of the opinion that it is a great thing for us that JPM are "buying" but I have never been of the opinion that they have been buying for themselves. Their buying has pushed the price up, showing huge confidence in the outcome here... by someone. Could be JPM, could be someone else. I don't happen to think that "someone" is JPM (buying for themselves). Does that change the fact it is a good thing? Not for us. Not at the moment. I do, however, consider that it may be someone with ulterior motives and I know I am not alone in that. Someone with very deep pockets reckons this is undervalued and the truth will out down the line. As usual, just for balance, one needs to consider the possibility that this is not being backed by JPM themselves, just bought/held by them. For what it's worth... it doesn't bother me. Yet. I am also starting to think a lot of the vote is now priced in, hence kicking myself for not getting back on my target day (not price) when it dipped to around 15.3p (I think), 3-ish weeks back. Part of what kicked off my Motif PTSD is that it will look very pricey in the unlikely event the vote fails. I will, however, be taking the ride across the vote/court and be considering a top up if it dips (Mon/Tue). I do suspect we may stall as everyone who's out over the vote stays out and everyone who's in, stays in (obvs)... I do expect some of the recently bought gamblers to sell the news on Weds and again on the 19th. That doesn't mean it won't get bought into by holders though, which will bring price stability. GL LTH - we've been waiting a long time for W/C 10th May. If the vote passes, I am certain the court will pass it. Maybe some slight changes in 'fairness' but they won't bankrupt them when their customers have asked for it to go through. Courts don't do that. It's not in the majority of creditors/public interests.
MTFB, SXX, FRR... There have been some shockers in my portfolio! I still check in on the MTFB chat, waiting on the RTO, but I don't contribute... nothing to say, really! Same with FRR, albeit that chat can still be interesting to read with all the court shenanigans! AMGO is a shining light! And who'd have said that 6 months ago?!
Soooooo... my calendar is actually looking pretty free on the 19th, at the moment... I must admit, another reason I've been a bit quiet of late is I am annoyed at missing out on my last top up (on the water and simply forgot) but the closer the date comes, the more PTSD I get from MTFB blowing up! Was on a plane for the Valentine's massacre so got that treat when I landed! That was 'nailed on', 'guaranteed', etc. You know me; not a deramp but just to explain why I haven't gone in again the last week and haven't had too much to say. Then I saw Mark mention it and it reminded me why I'm always cautious. Kept topping MTFB up wondering why people were leaving so much on the table, to see the price stall a day or two before the dreaded news. I want to see this keep pushing on up to and through the 12th! I always suspected some leaks at MTFB allowed some people to get out while hungry PIs paid a premium. I learned a hard, hard lesson from that one! A 5-figure one. That said; if I didn't believe AMGO was going to smash that loss into oblivion, I wouldn't be here. But, for balance, always be cautious, DYOR, take measured risk, only 'gamble' what you can afford to lose,etc, etc.
Exactly Novice! Vinson has always stated Friday and whether it comes or not... It matters not. Someone else, whether that be JPM/BB or someone pulling the strings, values this company and that should count for more than anything any of us on here might say, type or do. Nice mini-recovery so far!
Good question! Been manic lately, which is why I am not here so much! Will genuinely take a look in the morning. I'm hoping it's more of a formality though, this time. If the 12th is positive, as expected, then the 19th is hopefully just the rubber stamp. Today was coming, whether we like it or not. A lot of recent buyers were sitting on a lovely % profit... can't blame 'em. More for the LTH to pick up and hold across the news. It won't be the last red day I'd think, pre-news, but I don't see a couple of pennies being a big deal when we were 6p in Feb and couldn't hold more than 15p for any time only a couple of weeks back. Cool, consolidate, push, news and find a new level :)